2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/27/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, September 27, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	96.0	9	0
Alaska	96.0	3	0
Arizona	91.0	10	0
Arkansas	81.0	6	0
California	10.5	0	55
Colorado	78.0	9	0
Connecticut	7.0	0	7
Delaware	19.0	0	3
District of Columbia	1.0	0	3
Florida	62.0	27	0
Georgia	97.0	15	0
Hawaii	10.0	0	4
Idaho	96.0	4	0
Illinois	12.0	0	21
Indiana	97.0	11	0
Iowa	59.0	7	0
Kansas	96.0	6	0
Kentucky	92.0	8	0
Louisiana	94.5	9	0
Maine	26.0	0	4
Maryland	18.5	0	10
Massachusetts	4.0	0	12
Michigan	24.5	0	17
Minnesota	41.9	0	10
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	83.0	11	0
Montana	95.0	3	0
Nebraska	97.5	5	0
Nevada	72.0	5	0
New Hampshire	53.0	4	0
New Jersey	26.0	0	15
New Mexico	41.5	0	5
New York	9.0	0	31
North Carolina	93.0	15	0
North Dakota	96.0	3	0
Ohio	72.0	20	0
Oklahoma	97.0	7	0
Oregon	34.0	0	7
Pennsylvania	43.0	0	21
Rhode Island	4.0	0	4
South Carolina	95.0	8	0
South Dakota	96.0	3	0
Tennessee	89.0	11	0
Texas	98.0	34	0
Utah	97.0	5	0
Vermont	9.0	0	3
Virginia	90.0	13	0
Washington	24.0	0	11
West Virginia	79.2	5	0
Wisconsin	67.0	10	0
Wyoming	97.0	3	0
Totals		295	243

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 295 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 243 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 298.88 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/20/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/13/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 9/6/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly TradeSports.com Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[Aeronaut]

I'm still confident we will deliver Minnesota to W. Add 10 and W is over 300 electoral votes.

[goldstategop]

President Bush has a good shot of winning in states that are in the 40 percent range or above. I think he'll definitely take NH. The only true tossups are MN and NM. ORE is on the borderline. Anything below 30 is Kerry territory.

[counterpunch]

I think the current outlook is overly generous to Kerry in the Great Lake states and the west.

[tjwmason]

The Roll of Honour has changed very little since last week (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1221156/posts#25). I have been watching these data since 5 July. The following states have appeared as the most likely to vote for Bush in weeks since then.

Sixth place - South Carolina and Wyoming (most likely once).
Fourth place - Mississippi and North Dakota (most likley twice).
Third place - Oklahoma (most likely three times).
Second place - Alabama (most likely four time).

First place - no surprises is Texas which has now stretched its lead having been most likely to vote for the President on 10 occasions.

Nebraska was only half of a per centage point off joining the roll of honour this week.

The District of Columbia maintains is strong position on the roll of dishonour, having been least likely to vote for the President every week, his chance of winning there has not risen above 1%.

[cuz_it_aint_their_money]

I'm still confident we will deliver Minnesota to W. Add 10 and W is over 300 electoral votes.

Add to that Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes and its looking more and more like a landslide.
Make no mistake, Pennsylvania WILL be in Dubya's column in November.

[Straight Vermonter]

Amazingly enough it appears that NJ and Illinois may be coming into play. A win in PA, NJ or IL would seem to doom Kerry. Early election results should be interesting.

[DM1]

Still way too close
i would prefer to see like 350 EV for BUSH

[Salvation]

Bumping!

[jdege]

Date	Prob. Bush Win	Mean EVs	Std. Dev.
01/21	96.8%	341.5	41.1
01/26	95.5%	334.8	40.6
02/02	92.2%	323.8	39.7
02/09	83.0%	307.8	40.3
02/16	78.4%	300.4	39.4
02/23	76.2%	298.2	39.6
03/01	74.5%	295.9	39.3
03/08	68.0%	289.2	39.8
03/15	68.0%	288.8	39.0
03/22	68.5%	289.3	38.8
03/29	69.4%	290.1	38.8
04/05	71.2%	292.3	39.1
04/12	70.4%	290.6	38.1
04/19	68.6%	288.1	36.7
04/26	64.9%	284.5	36.3
05/03	66.3%	285.7	36.3
05/10	65.6%	285.3	36.8
05/17	65.2%	284.8	36.6
05/24	60.0%	280.3	36.9
05/31	61.1%	281.2	36.8
06/07	60.5%	280.6	36.5
06/14	65.0%	285.0	36.6
06/21	63.9%	284.0	36.8
06/28	58.4%	278.8	36.7
07/05	58.7%	279.1	36.7
07/12	53.1%	274.2	36.5
07/19	48.2%	269.8	35.7
07/26	43.4%	265.6	35.0
08/02	42.1%	264.3	34.7
08/09	42.9%	265.2	34.5
08/16	42.6%	264.9	34.2
08/23	41.8%	264.3	34.5
08/30	56.1%	276.4	35.0
09/06	65.0%	284.1	35.0
09/13	73.7%	291.5	34.2
09/20	80.1%	297.3	33.4
09/27	81.0%	298.9	33.9

[upchuck]

Thanks for the ping! This just gets better and better. The surest way to avoid "recount Hell" is for President Bush to win by at least 10% popular vote and 40 EVs.

[Believe_In_The_Singularity]

350 EV for BUSH...

I'm hoping he breaks Clinton's 379 mark in '96. THAT would be a mandate!

BITS

[Momaw Nadon]

Thanks jdege!

[Momaw Nadon]

Thanks jdege!

[Martins kid]

I went to see our President speak in Springfield Ohio today and I'm sure it was a even brighter blue when he was done.

[jdege]

I'm hoping he breaks Clinton's 379 mark in '96. THAT would be a mandate!

McGovern ran as an antiwar candidate and carried one state.

Mondale ran as tax-increasing candiate and carried one state.

I'd like to see Kerry win D.C. - and see one of the electors throw away her vote in a protest.