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Numerical Analysis: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics polls - July to September, 2004.
Fox News poll, September 21-22, 2004 ^
| September 23, 2004
| dvwjr
Posted on 09/23/2004 3:11:30 PM PDT by dvwjr
Here are the 'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last five Fox News/Opinion Dynamics presidential preference polls, including the September 21-22 poll which was just released. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll via PDF files. Also included is a re-weighting of the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics polls to the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation results for comparison purposes only.
(Excerpt) Read more at foxnews.com ...
TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: dvwjr; foxnewspolls; kewl; napalminthemorning; polls
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Here are the
'Rep/Dem/Ind' breakdowns and supporting internal data for the last five Fox News/Opinion Dynamics presidential preference polls, including the September 21-22 poll which was just released. I am publishing this information in one place for easy trend comparison versus looking at each Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll via PDF files. Also included is a re-weighting of the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics polls to the year 2000 presidential election 'Rep/Dem/Ind' partisan affiliation results for comparison purposes only.
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| FoxNews/Opinion Dynamics Results |
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Republicans |
Democrats |
Independents |
N= |
Bush |
Kerry |
Nader |
Other |
Wont Vote |
| All polls Registered or Likely Voters |
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| July 20-21, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.3% |
41.2% |
22.4% |
900 RV |
43.11% |
42.44% |
3.56% |
10.33% |
0.56% |
| August 3-4, 2004 |
100.0% |
35.6% |
42.1% |
22.3% |
900 RV |
41.78% |
46.44% |
2.44% |
8.78% |
0.56% |
| August 24-25, 2004 |
100.0% |
33.6% |
36.5% |
29.9% |
1,000 LV |
42.51% |
43.99% |
3.50% |
9.51% |
0.49% |
| September 7-8, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.1% |
41.5% |
22.4% |
1,000 LV |
46.60% |
43.40% |
2.70% |
7.10% |
0.20% |
| September 21-22, 2004 |
100.0% |
36.8% |
40.9% |
22.3% |
1,000 LV |
45.60% |
42.20% |
1.30% |
10.60% |
0.30% |
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| August 3-4, 2004 minus July 20-21 |
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-0.8% |
0.9% |
-0.1% |
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-1.33% |
4.00% |
-1.11% |
-1.56% |
0.00% |
| FoxNews Kerry Convention Bounce: |
5.33% |
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| September 7-8 minus August 24-25 |
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2.5% |
5.0% |
-7.5% |
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4.09% |
-0.59% |
-0.80% |
-2.41% |
-0.29% |
| FoxNews Bush Convention Bounce: |
4.68% |
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Fox News/Opinion Dynamics
Internal partisan affiliation breakdowns
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Year 2000 Presidential weighting |
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Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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VNS calculated exit data |
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34.37% |
38.86% |
26.77% |
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36.80% |
40.90% |
22.30% |
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| Poll Information |
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Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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Poll Numbers |
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Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
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Favor Bush |
91.00% |
8.00% |
39.00% |
Bush: |
46.00% |
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44.99% |
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| 09/22/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
3.00% |
81.00% |
36.00% |
Kerry: |
42.00% |
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42.08% |
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| MoE ±3.0% |
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Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
3.00% |
Nader: |
1.00% |
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1.38% |
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| 1,000 Likely |
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Other/UnDec |
5.00% |
10.00% |
21.00% |
Other/UnDec |
11.00% |
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11.55% |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
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100.0% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
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36.10% |
41.50% |
22.40% |
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| Poll Information |
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Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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Poll Numbers |
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Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
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Favor Bush |
94.00% |
9.00% |
40.00% |
Bush: |
47.00% |
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46.50% |
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| 09/08/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
3.00% |
80.00% |
42.00% |
Kerry: |
43.00% |
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43.09% |
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| MoE ±3.0% |
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Favor Nader |
1.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
3.00% |
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2.77% |
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| 1,000 Likely |
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Other/UnDec |
2.00% |
8.00% |
13.00% |
Other/UnDec |
7.00% |
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7.65% |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
1.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
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100.0% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
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33.60% |
36.46% |
29.94% |
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| Poll Information |
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Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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Poll Numbers |
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Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
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Favor Bush |
87.00% |
8.00% |
33.00% |
Bush: |
43.00% |
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42.34% |
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| 08/26/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
84.00% |
38.00% |
Kerry: |
44.00% |
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44.83% |
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| MoE ±3.0% |
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Favor Nader |
1.00% |
1.00% |
11.00% |
Nader: |
3.00% |
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3.19% |
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| 1,000 Likely |
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Other/UnDec |
5.00% |
7.00% |
16.00% |
Other/UnDec |
10.00% |
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9.65% |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
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100.0% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
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35.56% |
42.11% |
22.33% |
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| Poll Information |
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Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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Poll Numbers |
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Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
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Favor Bush |
86.00% |
9.00% |
33.00% |
Bush: |
42.00% |
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41.92% |
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| 08/04/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
7.00% |
82.00% |
44.00% |
Kerry: |
46.00% |
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45.66% |
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| MoE ±3.0% |
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Favor Nader |
2.00% |
1.00% |
6.00% |
Nader: |
2.00% |
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2.66% |
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| 900 Registered |
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Do not know: |
5.00% |
8.00% |
15.00% |
Do not know: |
9.00% |
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9.77% |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Wont Vote: |
1.00% |
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100.0% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
Total: |
100% |
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36.33% |
41.22% |
22.44% |
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| Poll Information |
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Demographics |
Republican |
Democrat |
Independent |
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Poll Numbers |
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Adjusted Numbers |
| FoxNews |
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Favor Bush |
87.00% |
8.00% |
38.00% |
Bush: |
43.00% |
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42.85% |
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| 07/21/04 |
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Favor Kerry |
3.00% |
80.00% |
39.00% |
Kerry: |
42.00% |
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42.18% |
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| MoE ±3.0% |
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Favor Nader |
3.00% |
3.00% |
4.00% |
Nader: |
4.00% |
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3.61% |
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| 900 Registered |
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Do not know: |
7.00% |
9.00% |
17.00% |
Do not know: |
10.00% |
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11.36% |
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Wont Vote: |
0.00% |
0.00% |
2.00% |
Wont Vote: |
1.00% |
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100.0% |
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100% |
100% |
100% |
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100% |
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Source: Fox News poll, September 21-22, 2004
Source: Fox News poll, September 7-8, 2004
Source: Fox News poll, August 24-25, 2004
Source: Fox News poll, August 3-4, 2004
Source: Fox News poll, July 20-21, 2004
I have created a temporary 'ping' list to many who had expressed interest in these 'Rep/Dem/Ind' poll breakdowns. If you wish to be added (or removed) from this 'ping' list, please place a reply on this thread and I will attempt to clean-up this list so as to not bother those who do not wish to read this type of poll analysis.
Hope this helps...
dvwjr
1
posted on
09/23/2004 3:11:30 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: 1stMarylandRegiment; 2nd Amendment; 68-69TonkinGulfYachtClub; ableChair; admiralsn; AFPhys; ...
2
posted on
09/23/2004 3:12:09 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
That's a lot of Democrats.
3
posted on
09/23/2004 3:16:42 PM PDT
by
AmishDude
(FR: Hundreds of voices are shouting, spitting, and clamoring for attention at any given moment.)
To: dvwjr
Black letters, white background, readability.
4
posted on
09/23/2004 3:16:50 PM PDT
by
per loin
(This tagline has not been censored!)
To: per loin
No thank you. I find most people with misadjusted monitors/video adapters see this data having a 'readability' problem. It is quite readable on any CRT or LCD monitor which is properly adjusted to a 2.2 - 2.5 gamma.
dvwjr
5
posted on
09/23/2004 3:19:52 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
Please add me to your ping list. Thanks.
6
posted on
09/23/2004 3:22:49 PM PDT
by
kesg
To: dvwjr
Hmmm, the poll reflects that 41% of voters are Democrats (not likely in general election) and that Kerry only garners 42% of the vote (this may end up being the case although I think he may get 44-46 %).
To: dvwjr
8
posted on
09/23/2004 3:24:50 PM PDT
by
tarator
To: AmishDude
That's alot of DemocratsI noticed that, too. Fox can't be accused of using more Repubs..that's for sure!
And in spite of that Bush continues to poll well:-)
To: af_vet_1981
Well, let's see.
Kerry is getting 3% of the Republicans, only 81% of the Democrats and 36% of the Independents. What's saving him in this latest Fox News poll is the fact that the poll sample has 4.1% more Democrats...
dvwjr
10
posted on
09/23/2004 3:26:50 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
Kerry is getting 3% of the Republicans, only 81% of the Democrats and 36% of the Independents. What's saving him in this latest Fox News poll is the fact that the poll sample has 4.1% more Democrats... Here is yet another poll assuming that the voters will turn out roughly as they did in 2000. Lots of people are going to be in for a big surprise on election day.
11
posted on
09/23/2004 3:29:11 PM PDT
by
kesg
To: tarator
Don't worry. Not trying to sully the good name of a branch of theoretical math, just makes it easy to find with the FreeRepublc search function.
dvwjr
12
posted on
09/23/2004 3:29:17 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
Do you know if Opinion Dynamics weights their polls for party affiliation? If so, that would explain a lot of things about this poll.
13
posted on
09/23/2004 3:32:42 PM PDT
by
kesg
To: dvwjr
I don't worry. It just looks funny to anyone that has studied college-level math.
14
posted on
09/23/2004 3:40:25 PM PDT
by
tarator
To: kesg
Fox News says no...
Weighting
Generally, Fox News poll results are not weighted. The national probability sample, if conducted properly, should accurately reflect national attitudes. However, particularly because the survey is often conducted over only two nights (limiting the opportunity for callbacks), some demographic deviation is possible. Opinion Dynamics Corporation has a constantly updated database of demographic information about the national samples and, if one should deviate significantly from past averages, weighting is used to bring the sample into conformity with other samples.
Source: FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll Methodology
dvwjr
15
posted on
09/23/2004 3:41:19 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: tarator
Oh, heck. I'm an just a civil engineer turned IT manager who was foolish enough to get an MBA, believe me in the context of a web-site such as FreeRepublic it doesn't look 'funny' at all.
Always keep things in perspective...
dvwjr
16
posted on
09/23/2004 3:45:20 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
I'm not sure what this all means, except perhaps that as we get closer to the election
the independents will move to Bush, Kerry will lose support among Dems and Republicans
(I'm in this group) will solidify around Bush.
End result (IMO): Bush 54%, Kerry 43%, other 3%.
(Note: other could be the Pope, Madonna, Jesse, Ayatollah...)
17
posted on
09/23/2004 3:57:15 PM PDT
by
Prost1
(To trust John Kerry is to hate America!)
To: dvwjr
Thanks. I noted that their poll is essentially changed from their last one (conducted two weeks ago) and that the top line percentages for both candidates seems to be a bit low. Are they counting leaners as undecideds?
18
posted on
09/23/2004 4:00:02 PM PDT
by
kesg
To: kesg
I can't tell by the information in the PDF file by Fox News, but I would guess that they do not 'push' leaners among the Independents and Democrats. I looked at the increase in the undecided among the Independents from 13% to 21% in the past couple of weeks. They have not gone to either candidate, probably waiting for the first debate...
dvwjr
19
posted on
09/23/2004 4:11:44 PM PDT
by
dvwjr
To: dvwjr
kind of dim heavy isnt it?
20
posted on
09/23/2004 4:12:16 PM PDT
by
aft_lizard
(I actually voted for John Kerry before I voted against him)
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