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Kerry Tanking in Iowa Electronic Market
http://128.255.244.60/graphs/graph_Pres04_WTA.cfm ^
Posted on 09/22/2004 9:47:09 AM PDT by freespirited
Take a look at graph from Iowa Electronic Market.
TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bush; election; iem; kerry; kewl; polls
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To: freespirited
Now that's a BEAUTIFUL picture!
2
posted on
09/22/2004 9:48:18 AM PDT
by
jocon307
(Ann Coulter was right)
To: jocon307
I love tanks!
They can roll right over John FRAUD Kerry for all I care.
To: freespirited
What's the view like up there W?
4
posted on
09/22/2004 9:53:33 AM PDT
by
mlbford2
(Brothers of the Pajamajahadeen, I declare a pajama fatawa against CBS)
To: freespirited
Don't get too excited they changed the contracts they are tracking but kept the same graph. I'm not sure why they did this but that explains the sharp change in the graph.
5
posted on
09/22/2004 9:55:08 AM PDT
by
Straight Vermonter
(Liberalism: The irrational fear of self reliance.)
To: freespirited
6
posted on
09/22/2004 9:56:37 AM PDT
by
QQQQQ
(Defeat Kerry. Support the SwiftVets. Keep the ads on the air. http://www.swiftvets.com)
To: All
Does anybody know what the track record of this is? Have they been accurate in the past? Entry in the market is pretty cheap ($1.00 a share), so it could be like an internet poll.
Just wondering, because I have no idea if this has proved accurate or not.
7
posted on
09/22/2004 9:57:20 AM PDT
by
Hank All-American
(Free Men, Free Minds, Free Markets baby!)
To: Straight Vermonter
Oklay but hte real quesiton is where oh where had Tom Harkin gone. Since the evidence has come out that the documents were forgeries Tom has disappeared.
Did he get abducted by aliens, Or did the Powers to be send him back to cleaning hog lots back home?
Perhaps he is busy cleaing up all the fake stories he planted about his War stories...
8
posted on
09/22/2004 9:57:57 AM PDT
by
Area51
(Diapers and Politicians need to be changed-For the same reason)
To: freespirited
Be careful interpreting the move in the graph over the past day or two because IEM has changed what they are graphing and beginning to use different contracts than what they used 2 days ago. That explains the apparent jump Bush gets from about a 60 percent probability to about a 68 percent probability. IEM should show some marker indicating they began using different contracts. They now show an aggregate of people who buy contracts based upon whether the candidate wins the election with greater than 52 percent of the popular vote, or whether the candidate wins with less than 52 percent. The less than 52 and greater than 52 are then added together to emulate the previous contracts which just were based upon whether one candidate would win versus the other.
Its still good news, just a little bit misleading. For some reason when people began buying the new contracts, more people bought one of the 2 Bush contracts than people who were buying the old Bush contract that was just based upon winning the popular vote.
To: Area51
Are you on the right thread?
10
posted on
09/22/2004 10:00:18 AM PDT
by
Straight Vermonter
(Liberalism: The irrational fear of self reliance.)
To: Hank All-American
From what I understand, it was very accurate in the last election. Essentially, it's predictive because the end result is (normally) absolute - Kerry or Bush wins. Anyone trying to "run-up" or "sell short" would be out of luck on Nov. 3rd and out a lot of money.
11
posted on
09/22/2004 10:01:12 AM PDT
by
Rutles4Ever
(The message of the Cross is foolishness to those who are perishing...)
To: Rutles4Ever
I thought the Iowa Electronic Market and Tradesports have been accurate predictors for as long as they have been around.
12
posted on
09/22/2004 10:13:15 AM PDT
by
Merry
To: Rutles4Ever
From what I understand, it was very accurate in the last election. Essentially, it's predictive because the end result is (normally) absolute - Kerry or Bush wins. Anyone trying to "run-up" or "sell short" would be out of luck on Nov. 3rd and out a lot of money.
It can't be disputed that the IEM is the most accurate barometer of the likely results. I have a theory that many of the investors in the political futures markets have access to internal polling data from the two campaigns.
To: AaronInCarolina
Now the Iowa futures is on the same page as the Tradesports futures (www.tradesports.com), which has been showing Bush trading around 68 cents - 70 cents for more than a week.
Comment #15 Removed by Moderator
To: Straight Vermonter
"Don't get too excited they changed the contracts they are tracking but kept the same graph. I'm not sure why they did this..."
I think there was extreme price instability at the very end of the 2000 race. IEM may be trying to avoid a repeat.
"...that explains the sharp change in the graph."
As rebel_yell2 noted, IEM's graph pretty much resembles TradeSports|com's graph; the change may be real.
16
posted on
09/22/2004 10:31:41 AM PDT
by
mdefranc
To: NOTTAHERO
They split the contracts which is very confusing to the casual viewer.
It confused me until I realized that they were replacing the previous contracts. Does anyone know if they do this switch during every presidential election in the weeks leading up to the elections?
To: AaronInCarolina
If this has happened in the past 48 hours, it may be the result of real, experienced Democratic players selling Kerry and buying Bush positions.
Kerry has adopted the proposition that the Iraq War is lost and we must get out.
He is saying that we will lose the war.
That will not be accepted by Americans who know, objectively, that it is not true.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
18
posted on
09/22/2004 11:02:15 AM PDT
by
section9
(Major Motoko Kusanagi says, "Jesus is Coming. Everybody look busy...")
To: Hank All-American
They have done presidential elections since 1988. I believe I read on their site that they have only missed by 1.1% of nailing the popular vote.
19
posted on
09/22/2004 11:07:50 AM PDT
by
jtsbrown
To: jtsbrown
Whoo doggie. That's incredible.
Let's hope they remain consistent.
20
posted on
09/22/2004 11:12:50 AM PDT
by
Hank All-American
(Free Men, Free Minds, Free Markets baby!)
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