[Rutles4Ever]

From what I understand, it was very accurate in the last election. Essentially, it's predictive because the end result is (normally) absolute - Kerry or Bush wins. Anyone trying to "run-up" or "sell short" would be out of luck on Nov. 3rd and out a lot of money.

[Merry]

I thought the Iowa Electronic Market and Tradesports have been accurate predictors for as long as they have been around.

[AaronInCarolina]

From what I understand, it was very accurate in the last election. Essentially, it's predictive because the end result is (normally) absolute - Kerry or Bush wins. Anyone trying to "run-up" or "sell short" would be out of luck on Nov. 3rd and out a lot of money.

It can't be disputed that the IEM is the most accurate barometer of the likely results. I have a theory that many of the investors in the political futures markets have access to internal polling data from the two campaigns.

[Keith Pickering]

Actually, the Iowa market miscalled the last presidential election. (I was a member then.) The market pays on the basis of popular vote, and Bush was leading substantially until the actual returns began coming in.