Replies

Be careful interpreting the move in the graph over the past day or two because IEM has changed what they are graphing and beginning to use different contracts than what they used 2 days ago. That explains the apparent jump Bush gets from about a 60 percent probability to about a 68 percent probability. IEM should show some marker indicating they began using different contracts. They now show an aggregate of people who buy contracts based upon whether the candidate wins the election with greater than 52 percent of the popular vote, or whether the candidate wins with less than 52 percent. The less than 52 and greater than 52 are then added together to emulate the previous contracts which just were based upon whether one candidate would win versus the other.

Its still good news, just a little bit misleading. For some reason when people began buying the new contracts, more people bought one of the 2 Bush contracts than people who were buying the old Bush contract that was just based upon winning the popular vote.

Now the Iowa futures is on the same page as the Tradesports futures (www.tradesports.com), which has been showing Bush trading around 68 cents - 70 cents for more than a week.