Posted on 09/15/2004 7:38:29 PM PDT by lainie
Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 55
Statement as of 10:00 PM CDT on September 15, 2004
...Extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan coming closer to the northern Gulf Coast...strong winds already moving onshore...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from Morgan City to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was centered near latitude 29.3 north... longitude 88.1 west or about 65 miles south of the Alabama coastline.
Ivan is moving slightly east of north near 12 mph...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of the hurricane will reach the coast early on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible prior to landfall...but Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...category three or higher. Occupants of high-rise buildings within the Hurricane Warning area can expect higher winds than those experienced at the surface...about one Saffir-Simpson category higher at the top of a 30-story building. After landfall... hurricane force winds could spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of the center.
People are strongly advised not to venture out from shelter during the calm conditions of the eye...as winds will increase rapidly with little or no warning when the eye passes.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 290 miles. The Dauphin Island C-man station reported sustained winds of 54 mph with a gust to 83 mph...and Pensacola Naval Air Station reported sustained winds of 51 mph with a gust to 68 mph.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft was 933 mb...27.55 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center.
Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.
Tornadoes are possible over the next 24 hours in southern Alabama... the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area...and southwestern Georgia.
Repeating the 10 PM CDT position...29.3 N... 88.1 W. Movement toward...north near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure... 933 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at midnight CDT and 2 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 am CDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking
this thread continuing from http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1216382/posts
Pensacola tonight
Lake Ponchartrain's south shore
Livin' in the Superdome
Post what you know, saw, heard, thought, or feel! All of our heartfelt wishes to everyone in this monster's path. Stay safe out there!
from those living it tonight
Question....is the storm surge at its highest when the eye crosses the coastline, or has it already abated some as the seabottom rises towards the coastline?
good loop. The ham radio guys are reporting various tornadoes spawned as far north as Georgia so far.
and probably seagulls in Little Rock....those birds ain't stupid..
Definately drawing in dryer air but Ivan is fighting back. As the SW quadrant of the eye has opened the convection East and north has flared a little. The dry air may win, but Ivan is gonna go down swinging.
Very bad situation. Let us hope our friends in Alabama and Mississippi will survive this monster storm.
Good Lord that thing is a monster.
bmp
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
939 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2004
Seven Fla counties currently under Tornado warning. One's already touched down in Panama city, killing two.
...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1000 PM CDT(1100 PM EDT) FOR
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN CALHOUN AND NORTH CENTRAL LIBERTY
COUNTIES...
AT 935 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO ON THE
GROUND. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OAKDALE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MARIANNA...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.
Batten down the hatches!
The storm surge combined with the heavy rain that comes with the hurricane can cause dangerous flooding in low-lying coastal areas, especially when a storm surge coincides with a high tide. This flooding can be the most dangerous part of a hurricane, potentially causing many deaths.
The height of the storm surge is the difference between the level of the ocean and the level that would have occurred normally. A storm surge is usually estimated by subtracting the regular high tide level from the observed storm tide - it can be 15 feet tall or more in a very strong storm.
from that, I extrapolate the storm surge is at its highest as the eye makes landfall. If anything, the shallow depths as the storm approaches land push the water up higher, no? Maybe someone here knows more.
ONe of the hurricane.net guys just got hit by tornado while on air. he is stillt ransmitting, they are trying to determine damage ands if he needs help.
Another one...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...DOTHAN...COTTONWOOD
* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
* AT 940 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A TORNADO 19 MILES SOUTH OF COTTONWOOD...OR NEAR MARIANNA...
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 45 MPH.
* THE TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR...
COTTONWOOD BY 1005 PM CDT...
COWARTS BY 1015 PM CDT...
DOWNTOWN DOTHAN AND WEBB BY 1020 PM CDT...
KINSEY BY 1025 PM CDT...
Talked to my sister tonight. She was driving home along I-10 in Houston and traffic was backed up for miles. She said this wasn't usual during the time frame she's normally on the road. As she was driving she'd call out all of the out of state tags she was seeing. Lots from Louisiana, Alabama and a few from Mississippi.
Her company has a steel mill in Mobile. They began shut down day before yesterday since the furnace needs time to properly cool off. She also said 20 people volunteered to stay on at the mill to watch it.
Would appreciate prayers for the 20 who volunteered.
That's what I thought I heard! Is that the "do you copy old man!?" call?
Very interesting indeed. The SE tip of LA was sort of like a sharp stick into him, but the waters to his NW are more energy to sustain him for his final punch!
Sounds like the same one.. now transmitting "Do you need help over .." scary, sad and riveting at the same time.
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