Posted on 09/15/2004 2:15:58 PM PDT by dwills
Bush Makes Slight Gains on Some Measures But Suffers Among Persuadable Voters, Annenberg Data Show
George W. Bush made slight gains from the Republican National Convention on two important comparisons with John Kerry among the general public. But his standing among persuadable voters may be worse now than it was in August, the University of Pennsylvania’s National Annenberg Election Survey shows.
...
There were indications in the data that Bush had received a short-term “bounce” from the convention, but on some measures it was dissipating last week. For example, approval of his handling of the presidency was in the mid-fifties when the latest polling began, but then declined.
Another Bush decline may have been more directly tied to news events. From September 3 through 6, the first four days of interviewing, 52 percent of respondents said they believed he had fulfilled his obligation to the Texas Air National Guard. But in the six days of polling that began September 7, when CBS News reported on documents it said showed his commanding officer believed he had shirked his duties, just 46 percent said they felt Bush had met his obligation. Belief among Republicans dropped from 82 to 75 percent; among independents the decline was from 47 to 40 percent. Only 23 percent of Democrats believed Bush in each period.
Among all 2,385 registered voters, Kerry’s standing slipped slightly, compared to the weeks before the Republican convention. In August, after the Democatic convention, 45 percent had a favorable opinion of him while 36 percent had an unfavorable opinion. In the September polling, 43 percent were favorable and 41 percent unfavorable.
But among the persuadables, who make up about 16 percent of all registered voters, opinion of Kerry actually improved. In August, 36 percent of persuadables had a favorable opinion and 26 percent an unfavorable one. In the latest polling, 43 percent were favorable and 25 percent unfavorable.
When the same question was asked about Bush, the changes were not statistically significant. In August, 50 percent had a favorable view and 40 percent an unfavorable view. In the September polling, 52 percent were favorable and 38 percent unfavorable.
There was no statistically significant change in the rating of Bush’s handling of the war on terrorism, a central theme of the Republican convention. He maintained a strong, 55 percent approve, 41 percent disapprove rating in the Sept. 3-12 polling. In the August 9-29 polling, 53 percent had approved and 44 percent disapproved.
But there was an increase in the percentage who agreed with his view that the war in Iraq had reduced the risk of terrorism. In the entire sample, that went from 29 percent to 36 percent, although 53 percent still disagreed, down from 59 percent in August.
Among all respondents, there was no real change on the economy. Bush’s own rating for handling the economy was basically unchanged among all respondents. In the latest polling, 46 percent approved and 52 percent disapproved. In August, 45 percent approved and 51 percent disapproved.
Nor was there any change in how the economy is perceived. In September, as in August, 27 percent said the national economy was excellent or good, while 73 percent said it was only fair or poor.
But among persuadable voters, the percent saying it was excellent or good declined from 19 percent to 13 percent. And the percentage disapproving of Bush’s handling of the economy increased from 54 to 63 percent.
noob, your link goes to an admin diatribe about vanities and blog posts, which certainly doesn't apply to my perfectly posted story, not to any previous posting of this article (of which there is none)
wtf are you to nag anyone about the definition of breaking news?
this just broke on CNN's inside politics and one of the best functions of FR is to debunk the enemy's propaganda, not to foster a mutual admiration society of ostriches right up til an election day loss of the popular vote
whether because of 4 million christian conservatives or FL panhandle voters that didn't turn out last time, we need to err on the side of caution, work like hell and slap back CNN, Annenberg and other left wing spin
Since citing Annenberg's Center of Communism.
"Persudable voters"? Shouldn't that be "Impressionable voters"? Or "Weak-willed voters"? Or "Easily-manipulated voters"? Or "Voters prone to suggest"?
The Annenberg dictionary defines Persuadable Voter as a Democrat who has not already committed to vote for anybody but Bush.
The August MOE for "persuadables" was 3%
The September MOE for "persuadables" is 5%
The "dramatic" movements that Annenberg breathlessly touts may be little more than statistical noise.
Yep, that would explain the differences in the polls and the widening margins in some battleground states.
Wow, now there is a new term -- "Persuadable Voters"...well, the YELLOW DOG DEMS don't need persuading since the hopeless, the right has a mind of its own (very non-liberal trait) so this new definition might include the few scattered, wandering louts who could not think their way out of a paper sack, let alone care too. I still do not accept the concept of a "middle ground" of voters -- either you care about your country, in real, objective factual terms, or you only care about yourself, and are not concerned with world reality.
That is what separates of left from the right today. There is no third type of voter. Just my humble opinion.
KEY POINT:
Annenberg surveys ADULTS only (rather than registered or likely voters); for this reason, their survey results are irrelevant to any discussion of VOTER behavior (in November). [NOTE: The concept of "persuadables" as it relates to an 'adult only' subset (vs registered or likely voters) is beyond meaningless -- the MOE of 5 for this subset makes it even more meaningless!!]
This said, the Annenberg poll contains very POSITIVE results for the President!
HIGHLIGHTS
Favorability:
GWB 52% favorable 38% unfavorable (+14)
Kerry 43% favorable 41% unfavorable (+2)
Commander in Chief (preferred):
GWB 52% Kerry 39%
War on Terror (preferred):
GWB 54% Kerry 36%
The President receives HIGHER ratings than Kerry on the following traits:
optimistic
cares about people like me
inspiring
strong leader
trustworthy
shares my values
has the right kind of experience to be president
easy to like as a person
stubborn
reckless
arrogant
effective, gets things done
strong leader
Kerry receives higher ratings than the President on only 3 traits (only 1 of which could be construed as positive):
knowledgeable
out of touch with people like me
says one thing does another
"persuadable voters" are people who are weak-kneed and jelly-minded enough to change their opinion to just about anything if you harass and pester them enough
no doubt that the namesake legator, Walter Annenberg, is rolling over in his grave:
"Annenberg remained supportive of conservative political causes throughout the years, and his efforts on behalf of Republicans were rewarded with his designation by President Richard Nixon as U. S. Ambassador to Great Britain in 1969. The appointment led Annenberg to sell his newspapers and television stations, but he retained TV Guide and remained active in managing the publication throughout his five-year tenure as Ambassador.
Shortly after the election of his close friend, Ronald Reagan, as President in 1980 (he would endorse Reagan's re-election campaign in 1984 in TV Guide, the only such political endorsement ever to appear in the magazine), Annenberg announced a plan to provide the Corporation for Public Broadcasting with $150 million in funds over a fifteen year period to produce educational television programs through which viewers could obtain college credits. Annenberg's sympathy for educational causes had already been evidenced by his financial support of the Annenberg Schools of Communication at both the University of Pennsylvania and at the University of Southern California."
nevertheless, as opinion leaders we'll need to work like hell in the blogoshpere and among 'persuadables' (i call them 'unreliables') in our spheres of infulence to preempt the 'strong closer' or 'comeback kid' story arc from taking off
LOL
Yes, but don't you know that when you die, you become a far out leftist? No matter where you started or ended your life, you become the bastion of ultraliberalism in the afterlife.
who are these people and why do they matter?
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