Hurricane Ivan -- Wednesday 9/15

NWS, NHC, various | 9/15/2004

[lainie]

Hurricane Ivan Advisory Number 51a

Statement as of 1:00 AM CDT on September 15, 2004

...Large and extremely dangerous Hurricane Ivan continues toward the northern Gulf Coast...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Grand Isle Louisiana to Apalachicola Florida...including the greater New Orleans area and Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...generally within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion throughout the entire warning area.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Morgan City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Grand Isle...and from east of Apalachicola to Yankeetown Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

At 1 am CDT...0600z...the large eye of Hurricane Ivan was estimated near latitude 25.6 north... longitude 87.4 west or about 265 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

Ivan is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph and a gradual turn to the north is expected today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...with higher gusts. Ivan remains an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are common in major hurricanes and are possible over the next 24 hours. Ivan is expected to make landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.

Ivan is a large hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles. A buoy centered about 100 miles east of Ivan is reporting wind gusts to 83 mph. Hurricane force winds are expected to spread inland up to about 150 miles near the path of Ivan.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb...27.58 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 10 to 16 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Lesser...but still significant surge values will be experienced where onshore flow occurs west of the center. Water levels are already running up to 1 foot above normal along the north Gulf Coast...and will be increasing today.

Dangerous surf conditions...including rip currents...are likely elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast.

Rainfall accumulations of 10 to 15 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected in association with Ivan.

Repeating the 1 am CDT position...25.6 N... 87.4 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph. Minimum central pressure... 934 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 am CDT.

Forecaster Avila

$$

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Links
nwctwx's excellent list
Weather Underground/Tropical
The Weather Channel Map Room
Intellicast Tropical Page
BoatU.S. Hurricane Tracking

[lainie]

Headlines

Thousands Flee As Hurricane Ivan Roars Toward U.S.
Ivan Adds to Oil Price Pressure
Awaiting Ivan in the Big Uneasy

Post what ya know, saw, heard, thought, or feel! Our heartfelt wishes to everyone in this monster's path.

[nwctwx]

[nwctwx]

[Blue Scourge]

God almighty, that is a big storm.

Last time I rode something like that out was Hugo. Please pray for my Girlfriend's grandmother, she decided to stay and ride out the storm in Destin Florida.

[nwctwx]

Current Information

Hurricane Ivan : Discussion

Hurricane Ivan : Public Advisory

Mobile, Alabama : Radar / Loop

New Orleans, Louisiana : Radar / Loop

Regional Radar Loop (Eastern Gulf of Mexico)

Regional Radar Loop (Northern Gulf of Mexico)

Southeast US Radar Composite

Southeast US Radar Loop

Vortex : Hurricane Hunter Messages

--Decoded Vortex Message

Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperatures (Ivan position included on map)

Deep Water Wave Height (Northern Gulf of Mexico)

Significant Wave Height (Gulf of Mexico)

[BurbankKarl]

I-10 looks wide open to me

[pnz1]

Am I mistaken, or does the Weather Channel keep saying it will make landfall in Fla? Looks like LA to me..

[nwctwx]

Alabama Media

Alabama Broadcast Stations

Mobile

News Radio 710 WPMI-AM

NBC 15 : Close to Home (Mobile, Pensacola, Ft. Walton Beach)

CBS 5 WKRG (Mobile, Pensacola)

Mobile Police Scanner

al.com : Everything Alabama

Birmingham

ABC 33/40 : Alabama's News Leader

Louisiana Media

New Orleans

Talk Radio 690 WTIX : LISTEN LIVE

WGNO-TV : ABC26 New Orleans

WWLTV.Com : News for New Orleans

NOLA.Com : Everything New Orleans

870 News Talk and Sports

TheNewOrleansChannel.Com

Cox.net for New Orleans

Mississippi Media

Biloxi

WLOX-TV - The News for South Mississippi

[jeffo]

Weather Channel forecasters still think there will be a rather dramatic turn to the North/Northeast. I do not know which model they are looking at.

But sitting here in Orlando, we're just waiting for that beast to take the same unexpected right turn Charley did.

[WFTR]

As of midnight (9/14 to 9/15), I-10 westbound at around mile marker 175 (Prairieville/Geismar/Gonzales) was bumper to bumper with people moving forward a few feet every minute or so. Airline Highway (Hwy 61) was bumper to bumper through Gonzales, but there was a little separation at each light. Traffic on secondary roads wasn't bad at all.

Bill

[BurbankKarl]

Rain from North Carolina to Cancun! I would say that is big!

[nwctwx]

High Resolution Satellite Images

High Resolution Ivan Loop

8-Image Close-Up Visible Loop

Rapid Scan Operational Real-Time Imagery (Click 'Floater' Links)

Full Color Disk Satellite (Western Hemisphere)

Interactive GOES East Satellite Viewer

[nwctwx]

Hurricane Ivan Tracking Page (Updated 9/15 - Added many new links)
--Hurricane Ivan Image Timeline
--Local Media Links (AL, MS, LA)

[lainie]

The Weather Channel has been saying that for, what, five days now. I don't get it. Most people don't get it.

[Tall_Texan]

What we won't know is whether the storm will still try to make landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi or if it will turn at the last moment into the Gulf coast of Mississippi and Alabama. My mother is in a nursing home in Fairhope and the home is planning to hunker down and ride out the storm. I think they'll be okay if they don't get a direct hit. It's a pretty sturdy one-story brick but I am concerned about tornadoes, flying debris, etc. that could strike.

My sister and her husband are leaving Baldwin County, AL and moving inland to some family members in Mississippi. They have horses and their house is a wood frame so I have my concerns about that too. Plus, they're down the street from a bunch of mobile homes.

I don't wish the storm for anyone but I do hope the ye comes ashore somewhere along the Mississippi-Louisiana state line as it is not heavily populated there and there is quite a bit of vegetation to weaken it as it comes ashore.

It won't be another Camille but then that whole area wasn't built up then nearly as much as it is today.

[TheLion]

TWC just said this could cause 30ft surge! Anyone know when high tide is on the coast?

[Arkinsaw]

Weather Channel forecasters still think there will be a rather dramatic turn to the North/Northeast. I do not know which model they are looking at.

This thing continues to barrel toward New Orleans. They continue to predict a turn to the northeast. It sort of wobbled to the northeast but wobbled back even further to the west. If this thing continues on its current track New Orleans is in for some big trouble.

[Howlin]

On that Weather Channel Map Room link, on the Africa map, is that where all these storms come from? The band of storms right in the middle?

[nwctwx]

[pnz1]

They have reporters (or whatever they call them) in Pensacola, Mobile, Panama City, and maybe Grand Isle?