Posted on 09/11/2004 11:44:04 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
COLUMBUS, Ohio, Sept. 10 - It wasn't supposed to be like this.
Everything seemed to be in place for a powerful run by Senator John Kerry in Ohio in the stretch drive after Labor Day. Al Gore lost the state by 175,000 votes in 2000, despite having pulled all his advertising early in October. Ohio has shed 250,000 jobs since George W. Bush became president. Rocked by scandals and an unpopular tax increase, the statehouse Republicans, from Gov. Bob Taft down the line, have been in unaccustomed disarray for weeks.
At the end of last month, the Census Bureau reported that Cleveland, with a poverty rate of 31.3 percent, led the country in that most dubious category, and at the beginning of this month American deaths in Iraq topped 1,000. Both developments might have given a leg up in the campaign to Mr. Kerry, a critic of Mr. Bush's economic policy and his conduct of the war. Yet Mr. Kerry seems to be falling back.
Ahead by six percentage points in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll in mid-July, Mr. Kerry trailed by nine points in a similar survey taken Sept. 3 through Sept. 7, immediately after the Republican convention. Kerry aides said the second poll had been taken too soon after the convention to be meaningful, but its results mirrored the impression of many savvy Ohio political figures.
"With all he's got going for him, it's hard to believe Kerry is stumbling so badly here," said William P. Blair III, a Canton lawyer and lobbyist, a former Democrat and nominal Republican who now describes himself as an independent of sorts.
Democratic professionals have begun to criticize Mr. Kerry's efforts - privately and, in a few cases, publicly. Gerald Austin of Cleveland, a leading Ohio campaign consultant for more than 30 years, said that former President Bill Clinton could run a better campaign than Mr. Kerry's "even when he was under ether." Mr. Austin said that Mr. Kerry had been too slow to respond to Republican attacks on his military record.
"I smell the same New England genius that I smelled in the Dukakis campaign in 1988," Mr. Austin added. "Kerry wants to run as a man of the people, and where do they put him for photo opportunities? Snowboarding in Sun Valley, shooting skeet in the Ohio valley, and windsurfing off that great working-class vacation paradise, Nantucket. Democrats - at least Ohio Democrats - play softball and touch football."
The campaign is far from over, of course. Eric Rademacher of the University of Cincinnati, who conducts the Ohio Poll, said polls taken so soon over Labor Day could be misleading. "During summer a lot of Ohio people, like people many places, take a vacation not only from their jobs but also from politics, and many are just now refocusing on the contest," Mr. Rademacher said.
Robert T. Bennett, now in his fifth presidential race as the Ohio Republican chairman, predicted that "trench warfare, down at the grass-roots level" would continue right through Election Day, with a close finish the most likely outcome.
Frustrated in 2000 when Mr. Bush's lead shrank in the final 72 hours or so, the Republicans began preparations for 2004 more than a year ago, and 75 people from the state party are now in position around the state, along with 59,000 volunteers, and more than a million pro-Bush telephone calls have been placed to voters. Mr. Bennett called it "a textbook campaign, with everyone pulling together - national, state and local - maybe the best I've been involved in."
But he also said the Democrats and their allies were matching the Republicans move for move, if not quite with the same level of unity.
Ohio is one of roughly a dozen battleground states, half of them in the Midwest, that appear likely to prove decisive in the presidential race. With 20 electoral votes, it is a significant prize, but it has a certain iconic significance as well, because no Republican has ever been elected with out carrying it. Both parties have mounted all-out efforts this time, with ample advertising and numerous appearances by their candidates - no fewer than 66 visits this year by the presidential and vice-presidential nominees.
On the very night that Mr. Bush accepted the Republican nomination at Madison Square Garden, Mr. Kerry made a midnight speech in Springfield, Ohio, between Columbus and Dayton. This week, his running mate, Senator John Edwards, was in Chillicothe on Tuesday, Mr. Kerry himself spoke in Cincinnati on Wednesday, Vice President Dick Cheney was there on Thursday, and Mr. Bush campaigned in Portsmouth and Chillicothe on Friday, his fourth Ohio visit in just 16 days.
Chillicothe - population a mere 21,796 but with access to several major media markets - has a respectable claim, if only a fleeting one, to the title of crossroads of American politics. More ranking politicians have come to town this year than it has seen in all the years since its heyday as Ohio's first capital two centuries ago.
Why this year? Chillicothe is on the edge of - and Portsmouth is in the heart of - the state's hilly and chronically economically depressed Appalachian region. Much of the region is represented in Congress by Ted Strickland, a Democrat. Southern Democrats like Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have fared well there, Mr. Bush barely won there four years ago, and it is widely seen as a pivotal area this year.
The president clearly hopes to do better this time, but the Kerry forces greeted him with a locally aired commercial focusing on the economy. Its message: "In 2000, George Bush never bothered to come to Portsmouth. Now, he's here promising to take 'the side of working families.' But in four years, he's taken things in the wrong direction: Health care costs are skyrocketing and family wages are down $1,500."
In his Cincinnati speech this week, Mr. Kerry hit hard on the war, but that tactic may not help his candidacy much.
Prof. John Mueller of Ohio State University, an authority on the relationship between wars, the presidency and public opinion, described Iraq as "the biggest American foreign-policy debacle since Vietnam," and asserted that "there is probably no way to halt the insurgents at an acceptable cost" in American casualties.
"Historically - in Korea, in Vietnam - as American deaths mount, public support gradually withers, more or less regardless of what politicians do," Professor Mueller said. "It's eroding now, but probably not fast enough to affect the outcome of this election, in this state or nationally. Bush wants to make this year into 1944, and Kerry would like to make it more like 1968, I guess."
Another reason for Mr. Kerry's difficulties is demographic. The state has been closely contested so far, but it is less representative of the nation as a whole than it once was. As labor unions have waned and the suburbs and exurbs around cities like Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo and Akron have flourished, the state has become more Republican. The Republicans now have a 12-to-6 majority on the Congressional delegation, and hold both Senate seats, the governorship, all the other statewide constitutional offices and both houses of the legislature.
"Since 1948, Ohio has slowly become less of a barometer," said Michael F. Curtin, president of The Columbus Dispatch, who has tracked Ohio politics for decades, "On average, it has voted 1.7 points more Republican than the country has. The last Democrat to run stronger here than he did nationally was Lyndon Johnson in 1964."
What a pile of dingo kidneys! I'll let those from Ohio comment on this, but it seems to me that the economy is coming around nicely in Ohio, and that Ohio voters are not single-issue (e.g., the economy) voters...they give every impression of being sensible and of seeing the big picture. Apple is rotten.
There is a website in Dayton, OH set up especially to register CONSERVATIVE young people 18 yrs. old and up, in Ohio only. Check out www.freedomtodecide.com
It's the war stupid
Typical Johnny Apple. He starts by telling us why Kerry is set to win Ohio but leaves it to the last two paragraphs to virtually concede that Kerry will lose it.
This is so typical of Apple who has been slanting for the Times for decades. For a man of such reputation in the right circles, Apple seemingly cannot write a piece with tripping over his self generated inconsistencies.
Johnny Apple, spreading his seed.
........... As labor unions have waned and the suburbs and exurbs around cities like Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Toledo and Akron have flourished, the state has become more Republican. The Republicans now have a 12-to-6 majority on the Congressional delegation, and hold both Senate seats, the governorship, all the other statewide constitutional offices and both houses of the legislature.
"Since 1948, Ohio has slowly become less of a barometer," said Michael F. Curtin, president of The Columbus Dispatch, who has tracked Ohio politics for decades, "On average, it has voted 1.7 points more Republican than the country has. The last Democrat to run stronger here than he did nationally was Lyndon Johnson in 1964.".....
Bump!
Wishful friggin thinking from the biggest Democratic Party Pimp on the East Coast.
I didn't think Jason worked there anymore.
Unbelievable. The headline and first two paragraphs could easily be a Kerry campaign ad. Has the Times registered as a 527 yet?
Conditions in Ohio Point to Kerry, but Bush Runs Strong
New York Times ^ | R. W. APPLE Jr.
COLUMBUS, Ohio, Sept. 10 - It wasn't supposed to be like this.
Everything seemed to be in place for a powerful run by Senator John Kerry in Ohio in the stretch drive after Labor Day. Al Gore lost the state by 175,000 votes in 2000, despite having pulled all his advertising early in October. Ohio has shed 250,000 jobs since George W. Bush became president. Rocked by scandals and an unpopular tax increase, the statehouse Republicans, from Gov. Bob Taft down the line, have been in unaccustomed disarray for weeks.
At the end of last month, the Census Bureau reported that Cleveland, with a poverty rate of 31.3 percent, led the country in that most dubious category, and at the beginning of this month American deaths in Iraq topped 1,000. Both developments might have given a leg up in the campaign to Mr. Kerry, a critic of Mr. Bush's economic policy and his conduct of the war. Yet Mr. Kerry seems to be falling back. </table>
I'm glad they found an impartial expert on the matter. Sometimes some of these professors can be kinda liberal.
Has anyone noticed that when Kerry campaigns in a given state that the poll numbers for him drop?
NYT whistling past the graveyard!
Just how is Kerry supposed to get a softball photo-op when he can't get a pitch over the plate standing 10 feet in front of the pitcher's mound?!
Yes. Higher education is stuffed full of socialists.
If W wants to seal the deal, he should run ads in late October depicting F'n as being out of the mainstream on cultural issues. If the GOP targets these ads to places like Chillicothe, Youngstown, and St. Clairsville / Wheeling, that would draw even more of the culturally conservative RATs away from F'n on election day, and ensure victory for the GOP.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.