Activity levels around the world are increasing. Let me know if you want on or off the Ping list.
Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
9/14/04 Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C No Change since 8/1/04
1. Attack threat windows
9/12/04 Primary Window: Between now and November 2nd. No change since 8/16/04. We are in a 60 days window before the presidential election" which is held on Nov. 2 of this year. Intelligence reported by many gov't officials and new media indicate the desire by OBL to launch an attack with the intent to disrupt/alter the results of our elections just like what happened in Spain. This window not only includes the US but also allies of the United States or supported the war in Iraq. According to Tom Ridge, Threat reporting over the last several months has been "consistent, general and credible" and indicated the al-Qaida network is trying to push ahead with its plans.
9/8/04 A tip through DHS referred to a Sept. 24 to Oct. 10 window for a potential attack in NYC
Secondary window: (9/2/04) This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005.
2. Attack Indicators
9/14/04 There is still anticipation of an OBL video/audio tape to soon appear. Absence of OBL in the annual celebratory video of 911 has raised eyebrows of many analysts
3. Current Terrorist Operations
N. Korea
9/14/04 North Korea says it blew up a mountain as part of giant hydro-electric project – Pyongyang’s first explanation for huge explosion near Chinese border last Thursday which prompted speculation of nuclear test. British diplomat has requested permission to view the blast site. This request has allegedly been granted.
Godzilla comments: If this was a N. Korean nuke, expect plutonium radiation, not uranium, since what they have is the former. Nasty stuff. Now regarding the reported seismic evidence. I’ve reviewed seismic data available on-line from a station in Inchon, S. Korea and Mudanjiang, China – the two closest stations, for Sept 8 – 9. A potential event was identified at approximately 14:44 and 14:46 GMT (23:44 and 23:46 local) respectively. This was followed closely by waves from a 6.0 quake near the south coast of Honshu Japan. This tiny precursor is unlikely associated with the Japanese quake since it is recorded before the actual quake time of 14:58 GMT. One news report said that the first explosion was at 23:00 local Sept 8 and the second at 01:00 local Sept 9. Since the source was I believe, Korean, I suspect he may have looked at the Inchon data that to an uncalibrated eye would look like it occurred at 23:00. There is a very small blip at approximately 01:20 local Sept 9, but it barely rises above background noise. This second event was not detectable on the China log. Again, an untrained observer/interpreter taking raw data and trying to make it fit a story (Sound like anything we’ve seen here before?). Also note that more recent news accounts have discarded the seismic evidence in their story line. What’s the bottom line? The available seismic data is unable to identify a specific event that can be clearly linked to the explosion(s). Seismic data cannot be ruled out completely as the original reports may have had access to data that is not posted on-line. I will search for a more precise report of when the explosions were to have taken place and clarify if need be.
Netherlands
9/14/04 The Netherlands is facing a far larger and more organised threat from Islamic terrorists than previously thought, it was reported Tuesday. One source said the Dutch authorities are conducting at least 15 investigations into planned attacks. A day after news broke on Monday that Dutch police investigating Islamic terrorism had arrested four people in July, newspaper Algemeen Dagblad (AD) said more terrorist suspects had been arrested than previously revealed.
9/13/04 Dutch authorities have arrested more suspects in a plot to attack key sites in the country, including Amsterdam's Schiphol airport.
Local media last week said that Dutch prosecutors believe they have uncovered preparations for the attacks this year on Schiphol -- one of Europe's busiest airports --, a nuclear power plant, the parliament building and the Defence Ministry in The Hague.
It was not immediately clear who was behind the plot. But local media have said that the plot came to light after police searched the home of a teenager, now 18, who was arrested in June in connection with an armed robbery investigation and found evidence linking him to plans for an unspecified attack. The teenager's arrest was one of the reasons behind a national security alert in July.
Other factors the Dutch government weighed when increasing its security stance then included the expiry of an ultimatum from al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden demanding European states pull troops out of Iraq, Afghanistan and other Muslim countries or face new attacks.
Iraq
9/14/04 Multiple car bomb attacks and hit and run shootings. Oil pipelines reported to be damaged.
Italy
9/11/04 The Ansar al-Zawahiri group have given Italy 24 hours to promise to release Muslim women prisoners in Iraq in exchange for details about two kidnapped women aid workers, in a statement published on a website Friday. This is the same terrorist group that has issued 7 threats against Italy since July 11th.
Denmark
9/12/04 Not satisfied with trying to intimidate Italy, the Iraq-based Islamic extremist group Ansar al-Zawahiri, presumably linked to al-Qaida and several hostage-takings in Iraq, has threatened to "punish" Denmark.
Afghanistan
9/11/04 AQ is directing the resistance resulting in better trained attacks. Militants attacking U.S. forces along the Pakistani border with mortars and rockets expertly adjust their aim betraying a high level of training not commonly seen among Taliban fighters. Arabs, Saudis and Yemenis were among fighters recently detected in parts of southern Kandahar province as well as the former al-Qaida stronghold of Khost.
Pakistan
9/11/04 Strong indications that Islamic extremists are planning a new wave of bloody attacks against Western targets emerged in Pakistan where detained militants revealed that the latest al Qa'eda video tape was intended to be a trigger for fresh atrocities.
Prisoners captured in recent weeks have told their interrogators that last week's taped message from Ayman Al-Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden's deputy, was a signal for al Qa'eda cells that were already on standby.
Israel
9/13/04 An Israeli helicopter fired a missile at a car in the West Bank town of Jenin on Monday, killing three people, including a militant leader, Palestinian security officials said. The main target appeared to be Mahmoud Abu Halifa, a leader of the Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, a violent group linked to Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement. Two others killed with him were not immediately identified. 9/12/04 Six Egyptian students from Cairo, who were caught after they crossed the Egyptian border near Nitzana on August 25 carrying 14 knives, black camouflage attire, backpacks, binoculars, communications equipment, and maps of Israel, were indicted today at the Beer Sheva District Court.
According to the charge sheet, the Egyptians planned to kidnap Israeli soldiers in order to negotiate the release of Palestinian security prisoners. The Egyptians also planned to take command of an IDF tank and rob a bank in Mitzpe Ramon, in order to finance future terror attacks.
Syria/Lebanon
9/11/04 The US government is holding Syria responsible for the recent bus bombings in Israel and as told the Syrian government to discontinue support to terrorist and to leave Lebanon.
Indonesia
9/14/04 The country is still on alert for additional attacks. Indonesia will hold a presidential runoff election on September 20, 2004. The Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and other similar terrorist groups might use these elections as opportune occasions to conduct attacks.
9/11/04 There are still concerns about terrorists hijacking an oil tanker or freighter and turning it into a floating bomb.
Australia
9/13/04 Australian banks and financial institutions doing business in Indonesia are fearful of being targeted by terrorists in potential follow-up attacks to last week's suicide bombing of the Australian Embassy in Jakarta.
Saudi Arabia
9/11/04 The U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia closed its consulate in the Red Sea port city of Jeddah after a car bomb exploded in the town on the third anniversary of the terrorist attacks on Washington and New York.
Iran
9/13/04 Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) kicked off major exercises Sunday aimed at testing out new equipment and maintaining its "spirit of Jihad and defense", state television reported. The head of the IRGC, General Yahya Rahim Safavi, said the "Great Manoeuvre of Ashura" would involve 12 divisions from what he described as the "biggest deterrent power in the region".
Russia
9/13/04 In wake of the Beslan school siege, Putin has ordered sweeping changes of Russia’s political system the better to fight terrorism.
England
9/14/04 Nothing new to report.
Central America
9/14/04 Nothing new to report.
United States
9/12/04 It continues to be assumed that AQ has entered a pre-attack phase with the orders and blessing already issued by OBL. Media is making it clear that we are still a target rich environment for attacks like that which occurred in Russia.
More concerns about terrorist infiltration along the border with Mexico, particularly in view of AQ contacts with narco-terrorist organizations.
4. Attack method.
9/12/04 As has been discussed on TM and other places, the method of choice of AQ are bombs - the bigger the better. With the exception of 9/11, car/truck bombs have been widely used. 9/11 and the recent attacks in Russia do indicate that AQ can think out of the box and adapt its tactics to the group actually carrying out the attack(s).
9/4/04 An anonymous tipster recently warned federal authorities Al Qaeda plans to use fuel-laden trucks to blow up the Brooklyn Bridge, the Empire State Building and one of the tunnels to New Jersey between Sept. 24 and Oct. 10.
5. Personnel
9/13/04 A 27-year-old Palestinian man, Atef Hasan Ismail Idais, living in Philadelphia has been arrested and charged with failing to tell customs officials that he was a member of the militant group Hamas. A federal grand jury indicted him yesterday for allegedly making false statements on a customs form in 2000 when he applied for the student visa that allowed him to come to the United States. The form asked whether he had ever been a member of a terrorist organization or whether he had ever been arrested or charged with a crime. Idais answered no to both questions, but the government says it later received information that he had been associated with Hamas group, which appears on the State Department's list of terrorist organizations.
6. Significant meetings canceled:
9/12/04 No new cancellations.
7. Security has been heightened in specific cities
9/12/04 No significant change since 8/11/04. NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE and DHS continues to review the threat towards these potential targets daily. Specifically identified targets include the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York. Other potentially targeted sites include - the American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros., Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve Bank, Bear Stearns, the UN, Wachovia, AIG, MetLife and JP Morgan Chase. The TransAmerica building and the Bank of America Bldg in San Francisco are also potential targeted buildings. However, threat levels were not raised by the DHS for these buildings.
9/8/04 Private security and law-enforcement officials in New Jersey were also contacted after the federal agency received the tip that Osama bin Laden's terror group aimed to strike at two New York landmarks (Empire State Building and the Brookland Bridge) as well as either the Holland or Lincoln tunnel..
GENERAL: Security in the NYC and surrounding areas is very tight.
8. Military operations.
9/12/04 4 carrier groups deployed, 1 is on standby and preparing for October deployment (Abraham Lincoln), 3 back in port and 4 under going maintenance.
8/31/04 The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
9. Dept of Homeland Scty.
9/14/04 Nothing new.
10. Suspicious Domestic Incidents Not Currently Linked to Specific Terrorism Attempts
9/14/04 Letters bound for governors' offices and rigged to ignite when opened were intercepted in Virginia and West Virginia, bringing to 18 the number of governors who have received similar letters in the past week."
Thank you Gozilla for that summary.
9/14/04 There is still anticipation of an OBL video/audio tape to soon appear. Absence of OBL in the annual celebratory video of 911 has raised eyebrows of many analysts
I think that US SpecOps is close to or has already contained OBL and they are awaiting thier own go code to grab him. This is being delayed by the White House IMHO, for the most politically opportune time (BRAVO, GW!!). I suspect he is bottled up in an area where they are jamming his commo and there is no way for a courier to sneak past the little mean men in the green beanies. That's why no more messages from OBL. Regardless, I still believe the operational "go Code" was given months ago and the play is in motion.
Thanks and know you'll keep us informed as to any updates on the seismic information you are investigating.
Thanks for the summary and looking into any sesmic activity related to N.K.
Thank you for your summary. Just found info on the N.K. blast incident that offers another possibility:
An example of just how far the speculation goes: Some wonder whether it was possible that the three-to-four-kilometer-wide non-nuclear mushroom cloud, the first clue of the explosion last Thursday, was actually the result of a precision attack by either China or the US on these suspect sites, a prelude to the upcoming but still not scheduled six-party talks. The negotiations are aimed at persuading North Korea to dismantle its nuclear program in return for security guarantees, alternative energy supplies and massive economic assistance.
With no radioactive fallout reported by any of North Korea's neighbors, nor from regional technologies designed to monitor such events, all indications are a conventional explosion of unconventional magnitude - similar to the Massive Ordnance Air Burst (MOAB) the United States tested in the spring of 2003.
Designed to replace the Vietnam-era, 12,000-pound (5,440-kilogram) "Daisy Cutter" bomb, the US Air Force's new 22,000-pound (10,000kg), Global Positioning System (GPS)-guided MOAB, applied in multiples, could create a conventional explosion similar to that which has been described to have happened in North Korea. Tests of a single MOAB (those who witnessed it referred to it as the Mother of All Bombs) in 2003 showed that the weapon created a mushroom cloud that extended about three kilometers in the air, yet left a relatively small seismic signature. Of course, that MOAB tested in Florida was designed, as the name suggests, to burst above ground, but the crater - the missing North Korean mountain - suggests a ground or below detonation: subterranean force projection? The USAF includes "deeply buried targets" within the 10-tonne weapon's target range; it is a penetrating weapon capable of delivering the explosive power of 18,000 pounds (more than 8,000kg) of Tritonol to targets deep beneath the surface. (snip)
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/FI15Dg02.html
As always, thanks for your summary.
Thanks for the summary, 'zilla. Informative as always, and your hard work is much appreciated.
Great summary ... thanks!