Hurricane Ivan - 9/10 thread - 5am update predicts Jamaica tonight, western Florida Monday night(?)

national weather service ^ | 9/10/04 | national weather service

[Diddle E. Squat]

000 WTNT44 KNHC 100813 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW 929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS... THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. IT REMAINS... OF COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO FLORIDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 74.2W 125 KT

12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.9N 75.6W 125 KT

24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.0N 77.4W 130 KT

36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 78.9W 135 KT

48HR VT 12/0600Z 20.4N 80.2W 135 KT

72HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 81.9W 115 KT

96HR VT 14/0600Z 27.0N 82.5W 115 KT

120HR VT 15/0600Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND

[jpsb]

looks to be moving more nw then wnw, I'd say this is another Fla storm. Wow, Fla is really getting clobbered and more to come!

[K1avg]

I think the 11am track is probably the most accurate. It showed Ivan heading up the peninsula starting at Tampa, rolling right over my house in N Central FL as a Cat 2 or so, hitting Savannah and SC as a tropical storm, and heading up the coastline, half in and half out of the water, probably as a tropical depression for several days.

Not only does that compromise the models out (and thus provides the best approximation of the ridges and troughs in existence and their effects), but it is probably the most destructive path, and that's almost always the way hurricanes try to go.

Hopefully Ivan won't pull a Charley and jump two categories over the Gulf. I'd hate to be on the receiving end of a Category 6 hurricane. {shudder} ;)

[tutstar]

through Jacksonville or just west of it?

[K1avg]

Not that anyone cares, but we just found out that several of our neighbors had their water tested and it was contaminated with e. Coli.

But I do have good news! I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance...

[Dog Gone]

At least you're keeping your sense of humor about this mess.

[shield]

;o)....SWL=screaming with laughter!!!

[Vinnie]

I don't want it coming up the East Coast as I'm in NC.
But I feel sure it will ride up that frontal boundary.
Depends where the front is as to where it comes ashore .
BTW.... I'm not a meteorologist and I didn't stay in a Holiday Inn last night.
But I did live in Fla the first 42 yrs of my life and followed many hurricanes.

[Dog Gone]

Unless it takes a sharp left at Cuba, you're going to either get the remanants of Ivan, or a full-scale frontal assault if it crosses into the Atlantic.

Your only chance to avoid it is to secede from the union and join Greenland.

[Rebelbase]

"Your only chance to avoid it is to secede from the union and join Greenland."

No grits in Greenland.

[tutstar]

As long as you saved money on your car insurance, it's ok! LOL

[Rebelbase]

"Not that anyone cares, but we just found out that several of our neighbors had their water tested and it was contaminated with e. Coli. "

I think that's a bunch of Sh_t!

[Dog Gone]

Okay, well rule that out. LOL.

[K1avg]

"No grits in Greenland."

Or much of anything else either.

Aren't they getting the remnants of Frances right now? I had some friends in Canadia telling me about some flash floods or something.

[K1avg]

"I think that's a bunch of Sh_t!"

It's about to be, because I've been drinking it all week.

[Vinnie]

No grits,, I won't go.
Almost every Sunday I make grits, swirl in grated cheese. Yum

[K1avg]

Not sure if this has been posted already on this thread or not. Not looking good at all.

[VeniVidiVici]

I can't see how they are tracking it further west now, especially if they say that high is going to weaken.

Awful lot of dry air on either side of FL.

[Rebelbase]

Asheville, NC had its water lines washed out on Wed. and there is no water.

The local message board has people asking about places where they can take a dump.

[shield]

"I think that's a bunch of Sh_t!"
It's about to be, because I've been drinking it all week.

Good one....sense of humor always helps during this horrid hurricane season for the Floridians...;o(

[Dog Gone]

The pressure in Ivan just dropped to 927 mb. The storm is strengthening just before it hits Jamaica.