Hurricane Ivan - 9/10 thread - 5am update predicts Jamaica tonight, western Florida Monday night(?)

national weather service ^ | 9/10/04 | national weather service

[Diddle E. Squat]

000 WTNT44 KNHC 100813 TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004

REPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW 929 MB. THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT ABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY GOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS. VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS... THE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN WESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER WESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS. IT REMAINS... OF COURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO FLORIDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE PUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.9N 74.2W 125 KT

12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.9N 75.6W 125 KT

24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.0N 77.4W 130 KT

36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.1N 78.9W 135 KT

48HR VT 12/0600Z 20.4N 80.2W 135 KT

72HR VT 13/0600Z 23.3N 81.9W 115 KT

96HR VT 14/0600Z 27.0N 82.5W 115 KT

120HR VT 15/0600Z 31.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND

[weatherFrEaK]

Watch conditions in Jamaica until the instruments fail PING.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html

[kinghorse]

Hell no it can't be trusted. I threw it out there because it's what it is. A map of major storm tracks of the last 40 years within 75 miles of where Ivan sits right now.

[jpsb]

have yu ever checked out this site?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs

it is pretty cool for looking at the big picture.

[kinghorse]

To be honest, Ivan's southerly track through the Greater Antilles is as close to the Equator as has ever been seen. It's a really weird storm.

[jpsb]

Ivan is kind of small isn't it? Huricane force winds only extend 35 miles so I figured Ivan was a Charlie type storm, small compact, not a huge Frances type storm. The smaller one are more sensitive to thier environment and more prone to being sucked north. Right?

[shield]

OK....good info...thanks....educating us is so worth while. If he moves into any of those parts of Texas....my friends will have to evac for sure.

[weatherFrEaK]

000
URNT12 KNHC 101913
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1913Z
B. 16 DEG 50 MIN N
75 DEG 52 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2538 M
D. 90 KT
E. 245 DEG 005 NM
F. 336 DEG 103 KT
G. 243 DEG 009 NM
H. 937 MB
I. 9 C/ 3076 M
J. 17 C/ 3059 M
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C16
N. 12345/07
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF984 1509A IVAN OB 13
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NW QUAD 1743Z.

Latest VORTEX. Pressure beginning to fall.

[jpsb]

MAX FL WIND 123 KT NW QUAD 1743Z.
Still a cat 4 or down to cat 3?

[shield]

To be honest, Ivan's southerly track through the Greater Antilles is as close to the Equator as has ever been seen. It's a really weird storm.

Maybe the dark forces are involved... ;o)

[weatherFrEaK]

I would venture to guess it will be kept at CAT4 status as satellite imagery clearly shows Ivan is reorganizing and looking to intensify.

[shield]

Thanks WEATHERFREAK....me too!!!

[PBRSTREETGANG]

To be honest, Ivan's southerly track through the Greater Antilles is as close to the Equator as has ever been seen.

I was thinking about that when they were posting hurricane warnings for Aruba.

I remember when I visited Aruba they were touting how they were to far south to be affected by any hurricane activity.

[Dog Gone]

Oh yes, that's one of my favorite sites. I've been spreading the link to it on previous threads. I don't know what the top model on that page is, though, and it's never seemed useful to me.

[jpsb]

thanks, you are probably right, better to err on the side of caution. What to you think about direction, think it will turn north?

[tutstar]

If you don't want to continue it let me know and I'll take it.
Thanks for adding me!

[Dog Gone]

Still not too bad there, although I'm guessing those conditions are almost an hour behind realtime.

[weatherFrEaK]

Ivan will eventually turn more northerly, but where in the US it will finally make landfall is still too far out to guess.

[jpsb]

Also all the really strong winds are in or very near the eye, like charlie, if the eye misses you by 30 or 40 miles you are OK, if the eye hits you you are toast.

[Lucy Lake]

Please add me to your Ivan ping list. Thanks.

[Quilla]

Praying you find the strength to finish the work you still have to accomplish. Good luck and then get out of there!