Posted on 09/08/2004 9:06:23 AM PDT by bd476
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HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for the central Caribbean Sea...
A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
A hurricane watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for The Guarjira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the Government of Haiti has issued a Hurricane Watch for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales.
Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near Latitude 12.7 North...Longitude 66.2 West or about 145 miles...235 Km...East-Northeast of Bonaire and about 795 miles...1280 km... EAST-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of Aruba... Bonaire...and Curacao later today. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.
Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM… from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 KM.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 MB...28.20 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of ivan in the hurricane warning area.
Rainfall Amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 AM AST position...12.7 N... 66.2 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 955 MB.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor Products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm AST.
Forecaster Avila
$$
Just came inside from an awesome Mohave Desert lightning show visible where I am from around the Barstow area. It is outstanding.
Listening to 1100 EDT Ivan update
17.5N 76.9W
35 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica
traveling WNW 10 mph
155 mph winds, gusts higher
Category 4
920 mb 27.17 inches
5-8' surge, 8-12" rainfall
sorry there's a new thread and I didn't know :)
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