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Hurricane Ivan Upgraded to Category 5 Hurricane
NOAA National Hurricane Center ^ | September 8, 2004 | NOAA National Hurricane Center

Posted on 09/08/2004 9:06:23 AM PDT by bd476

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004

...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for the central Caribbean Sea...

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.

A hurricane watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for The Guarjira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela.

At 11 AM AST...1500z...the Government of Haiti has issued a Hurricane Watch for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince.

A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales.

Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.

At 11 AM AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near Latitude 12.7 North...Longitude 66.2 West or about 145 miles...235 Km...East-Northeast of Bonaire and about 795 miles...1280 km... EAST-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ivan is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of Aruba... Bonaire...and Curacao later today. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.

Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM… from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 KM.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 MB...28.20 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of ivan in the hurricane warning area.

Rainfall Amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.

Repeating the 11 AM AST position...12.7 N... 66.2 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 955 MB.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor Products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm AST.

Forecaster Avila

$$


TOPICS: Announcements; Breaking News; Cuba; News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: Kentucky; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: North Carolina; US: Ohio; US: South Carolina; US: Tennessee; US: Virginia
KEYWORDS: bonaire; caribbean; cat4; category5; columbia; cuba; fema; forecast; grenada; haiti; hurricane; hurricanehunters; hurricaneivan; ivan; jamaica; nhc; noaa; tropical; venezuela
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261 posted on 09/09/2004 4:23:40 AM PDT by firewalk
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To: bd476; Howlin

Good Grief........did either of you sleep at all alst night????????


262 posted on 09/09/2004 4:24:44 AM PDT by Gabz (FR is no more addictive than air and water. It's just a necessity.)
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To: Dog Gone

Yep.

Jamaica is about to get flattened. They're having flashbacks of Gilbert down there. Gilbert had the lowest sea level presure ever recorded in the western hemisphere at 888 millibars. Lowest ever recorded in the atlantic also at 865 I think it was. I remember last time I was down there being struck by the way the palm trees were bent 90 degrees half way up the truck. I don't think it misses Jam but I sure hope it misses Florida. Seems they've had enough punishment for one year.


263 posted on 09/09/2004 4:34:30 AM PDT by dominic housatonic62 (Hey Ho! Hey Ho! Kerry sign the 180!)
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To: blam
Hi blam. We're heading out to do some deep sea fishing off Destin. Weather is perfect, as you know. Praying Ivan will spare this most beautiful area and especially it's fishing fleet.

sw

264 posted on 09/09/2004 4:39:05 AM PDT by spectre (Spectre's wife)
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To: bd476

Speaking of wind speeds and higher altitudes; does anyone have any info on how cell towers have fared in recent storms?


265 posted on 09/09/2004 4:40:34 AM PDT by numberonepal (Whatever happened to freedom, liberty, and capitalism?)
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To: dominic housatonic62
palm trees were bent 90 degrees half way up the truck.

I've got a story about a truck and a bent palm tree, but it doesn't have anything to do with a hurricane.

266 posted on 09/09/2004 4:42:30 AM PDT by numberonepal (Whatever happened to freedom, liberty, and capitalism?)
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To: Old Sarge
Typhoon Tip was the strongest hurricane/typhoon ever. Incidentially, Tip was also the largest hurricane/typhoon ever. For comparision (the circle is the area of gale-force winds, not merely the entire cloud/rain cover):



Here's a satellite picture of Tip:



Tip had tropical storm-force winds that extended 675 miles in radius. It also holds the world record for low pressure--870 millibars! and had sustained winds of 190 mph.
267 posted on 09/09/2004 4:45:59 AM PDT by Nataku X (John sez: NO BLOOD FOR PURPLE HEARTS!)
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To: numberonepal

LOL!
Wouldn't have anything to do with driving on too many beers, would it?


268 posted on 09/09/2004 4:48:49 AM PDT by dominic housatonic62 (Hey Ho! Hey Ho! Kerry sign the 180!)
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To: bd476
I heard the Category 5 heads up forecast last week from one of the Weather Channel's top experts. I think it related to how far south the storm was tracking. It was stated almost as a matter of fact so I passed it on to FReepers with the same confidence.
269 posted on 09/09/2004 5:11:09 AM PDT by spycatcher
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000
Wtnt34 knhc 091153
Tcpat4
Bulletin
Hurricane Ivan intermediate advisory number  28a
Nws tpc/national hurricane center Miami fl
8 AM AST thu sep 09 2004
 
...Ivan...extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane...continues
toward Jamaica...

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and
Curacao.
 
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for
the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia...for the entire Northern
Coast of Venezuela...and for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti
from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port
Au Prince.
 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for Jamaica
later this morning.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern
Coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to
Pedernales.  Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for a portion
of this area later today.
 
Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely
monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
 
At 8 AM AST...1200z...the well-defined eye of Hurricane Ivan was
located near latitude 14.2 North...longitude  70.7 West or about 
455 miles...735 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
 
Ivan is moving toward the West-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr. 
This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. 
on this track...the center of Ivan should remain well to the North
of Aruba during the next several hours...and then continue on route
toward the area near Jamaica.
 
Ivan is a extremely dangerous Category Five Hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near
160 mph...255 km/hr...with higher gusts.  Some fluctuations in
strength are likely today.
 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  60 miles...95 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.
 
An air force plane reported a minimum pressure of 919 MB...27.14
Inches about two hours...but it has risen slightly and it is now
estimated to be 921 MB...27.20 inches.
 
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area.
 
Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life-
threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the
Path of Ivan.
 
Repeating the 8 AM AST position...14.2 n... 70.7 w.  Movement
toward...West-Northwest near 15 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...160 mph.  Minimum central pressure...921 MB.
 
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
 
The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at
11 AM AST.
 
Forecaster avila 
 
$$

270 posted on 09/09/2004 5:24:29 AM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476; NautiNurse
HurricaneCity.com is set to begin streaming the Hurricane Watch Net later this morning. Jim is also planning on stremaing radio from the Caymans and Jamaica.

I'll start assembling streaming links and posting them later today.

271 posted on 09/09/2004 5:26:36 AM PDT by mhking
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To: spycatcher
Unfortunately you both were right. :)

Just curious, did the expert mention anything about Hurricane Ivan becoming larger than a Category 5?

272 posted on 09/09/2004 5:27:10 AM PDT by bd476
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To: mhking
please ping me .... I'm watching from Key West and they've just chased the tourists home

.

273 posted on 09/09/2004 5:32:48 AM PDT by Elle Bee
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To: Nakatu X
Wow, that's a monster storm, Nakatu X. Thank you for posting the photo.

It's easy to forget that there have been large storms in the past when the focus is on here, right now. Rather than wondering if everything is worse than ever, it helps to realize that there were worse storms not too many years ago.

That storm is so big it would qualify to be a storm in some science fiction movie.

274 posted on 09/09/2004 5:33:34 AM PDT by bd476
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To: Strategerist
In the last few hours it's turned slightly more N of W....

I'm trying to visualize that. Can't quite get it.

275 posted on 09/09/2004 5:36:29 AM PDT by WashingtonSource (Freedom is not free)
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To: alancarp; Ax; beckybea; Brytani; BurbankKarl; CajunConservative; capt. norm; CFC__VRWC; cksharks; ..
Hurricane Ivan Advisory #28A 8AM 9 Sept 2004 Ping.

If you would like your name removed from this ping list, please feel free to Freepmail me. It looks like there may be more frequent updates on Hurricane Ivan since it has become even stronger with a new pressure drop and wind speed increase.

Let me know. :)

276 posted on 09/09/2004 5:38:36 AM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476

Keep up the good work, FRiend (but please remember to get some sleep)


277 posted on 09/09/2004 5:42:14 AM PDT by Gabz (FR is no more addictive than air and water. It's just a necessity.)
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To: bd476

Yep, Japan regularly gets hit with bigger and stronger typhoons than we do simply because the Pacific is so much bigger. The strongest Atlantic hurricane was Gilbert, 185 mph sustained winds. It hit Jamaica full-force and then the Yutacan as a Cat3. In Jamaica it was so strong that I read of large furniture like couches literally being sucked through doorways and windows. While Ivan is strong it's still got a long way to go before it gets to the levels of Gilbert and those Pacific supertyphoons.


278 posted on 09/09/2004 5:45:01 AM PDT by Nataku X (John sez: NO BLOOD FOR PURPLE HEARTS!)
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To: mhking

Great and looking forward to seeing the list of links. Thank you!


279 posted on 09/09/2004 5:47:04 AM PDT by bd476
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To: bd476

This storm is essentially a giant tornado. Pray for the people of Jamaica. I don't think any shelter is safe from a storm like this.


280 posted on 09/09/2004 5:50:10 AM PDT by Dog Gone
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