Posted on 09/08/2004 9:06:23 AM PDT by bd476
ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST WED SEP 08 2004
...Dangerous Hurricane Ivan heading for the central Caribbean Sea...
A hurricane warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao.
A hurricane watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for The Guarjira Peninsula of Columbia...and for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the Government of Haiti has issued a Hurricane Watch for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales.
Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan.
At 11 AM AST...1500z...the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near Latitude 12.7 North...Longitude 66.2 West or about 145 miles...235 Km...East-Northeast of Bonaire and about 795 miles...1280 km... EAST-Southeast of Kingston Jamaica.
Ivan is moving toward the West-Northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Ivan should move North of Aruba... Bonaire...and Curacao later today. However...any deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring the center close to those islands.
Ivan is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next 2 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 KM from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 KM.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 MB...28.20 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of ivan in the hurricane warning area.
Rainfall Amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the path of Ivan.
Repeating the 11 AM AST position...12.7 N... 66.2 W. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 MPH. Minimum central pressure... 955 MB.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor Products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2 pm AST followed by the next complete advisory at 5 pm AST.
Forecaster Avila
$$
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Good Grief........did either of you sleep at all alst night????????
Yep.
Jamaica is about to get flattened. They're having flashbacks of Gilbert down there. Gilbert had the lowest sea level presure ever recorded in the western hemisphere at 888 millibars. Lowest ever recorded in the atlantic also at 865 I think it was. I remember last time I was down there being struck by the way the palm trees were bent 90 degrees half way up the truck. I don't think it misses Jam but I sure hope it misses Florida. Seems they've had enough punishment for one year.
sw
Speaking of wind speeds and higher altitudes; does anyone have any info on how cell towers have fared in recent storms?
I've got a story about a truck and a bent palm tree, but it doesn't have anything to do with a hurricane.
LOL!
Wouldn't have anything to do with driving on too many beers, would it?
000 Wtnt34 knhc 091153 Tcpat4 Bulletin Hurricane Ivan intermediate advisory number 28a Nws tpc/national hurricane center Miami fl 8 AM AST thu sep 09 2004 ...Ivan...extremely dangerous Category 5 Hurricane...continues toward Jamaica... A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Aruba...Bonaire...and Curacao. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia...for the entire Northern Coast of Venezuela...and for the entire Southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic Westward...including Port Au Prince. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for Jamaica later this morning. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southwestern Coast of the Dominican Republic from Santo Domingo Westward to Pedernales. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required for a portion of this area later today. Interests in Central and Western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan. At 8 AM AST...1200z...the well-defined eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 14.2 North...longitude 70.7 West or about 455 miles...735 km...southeast of Kingston Jamaica. Ivan is moving toward the West-northwest near 15 mph...24 km/hr. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. on this track...the center of Ivan should remain well to the North of Aruba during the next several hours...and then continue on route toward the area near Jamaica. Ivan is a extremely dangerous Category Five Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph...255 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength are likely today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km. An air force plane reported a minimum pressure of 919 MB...27.14 Inches about two hours...but it has risen slightly and it is now estimated to be 921 MB...27.20 inches. Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 7 inches...possibly causing life- threatening flash floods and mud slides...can be expected along the Path of Ivan. Repeating the 8 AM AST position...14.2 n... 70.7 w. Movement toward...West-Northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds...160 mph. Minimum central pressure...921 MB. For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. The next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 11 AM AST. Forecaster avila $$
I'll start assembling streaming links and posting them later today.
Just curious, did the expert mention anything about Hurricane Ivan becoming larger than a Category 5?
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It's easy to forget that there have been large storms in the past when the focus is on here, right now. Rather than wondering if everything is worse than ever, it helps to realize that there were worse storms not too many years ago.
That storm is so big it would qualify to be a storm in some science fiction movie.
I'm trying to visualize that. Can't quite get it.
If you would like your name removed from this ping list, please feel free to Freepmail me. It looks like there may be more frequent updates on Hurricane Ivan since it has become even stronger with a new pressure drop and wind speed increase.
Let me know. :)
Keep up the good work, FRiend (but please remember to get some sleep)
Yep, Japan regularly gets hit with bigger and stronger typhoons than we do simply because the Pacific is so much bigger. The strongest Atlantic hurricane was Gilbert, 185 mph sustained winds. It hit Jamaica full-force and then the Yutacan as a Cat3. In Jamaica it was so strong that I read of large furniture like couches literally being sucked through doorways and windows. While Ivan is strong it's still got a long way to go before it gets to the levels of Gilbert and those Pacific supertyphoons.
Great and looking forward to seeing the list of links. Thank you!
This storm is essentially a giant tornado. Pray for the people of Jamaica. I don't think any shelter is safe from a storm like this.
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