Gallup: "Swing Voters" in the 2004 Presidential Election

Gallup News Service ^ | September 7, 2004 | Joseph Carroll

[RWR8189]

Throughout the campaign this year, in addition to asking whom they plan to vote for, Gallup has asked Americans whether they are certain they will vote for their candidate or they could change their minds before Election Day. The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted this past weekend after the Republican National Convention in New York, finds President George W. Bush leading Democratic challenger John Kerry, by 52% to 45% among likely voters. The latest poll shows that 88% of Americans deemed most likely to vote in this year's election are firm in their vote choices, and only 12% of likely voters say they may change their minds.

Strength of Support for Bush, Kerry

The current poll finds that 48% of likely voters say they are certain that they will vote for Bush in November, while 40% are certain to vote for Kerry. These results show the highest percentage of likely voters saying they are certain to vote for Bush since March. In early March, 38% said they were certain to vote for Bush. This increased to 44% by the end of March, and then declined slightly to 40% in May and mid-July. After the Democratic convention, 46% of likely voters said they were certain to vote for Bush. Two weeks ago, 44% said they were certain to vote for Bush.

At the same time, the percentage of likely voters who are certain to vote for Kerry has remained more consistent, ranging from 39% to 45% from March through the latest poll. Over the past three polls, roughly 4 in 10 likely voters say they are certain to vote for Kerry

 

[RWR8189]

[RWR8189]

Gallup Ping

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[RWR8189]

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[InterceptPoint]

Looks like good news to me.

[plushaye]

"Looks like good news to me."

To me too. Kerry support is mushier (fits well with the candidate and his 'principled nuances').

[DJtex]

It's at 48% for Bush now. When it gets to 50.1% certain for Bush, it's Game, Set, and Match!

These are really amazing numbers. I'm starting to think that this will be a Bush landslide although I'm not going to get over-confident and lazy about these next 60 days.

[ride the whirlwind]

Lookin' pretty, but turnout is critical, of course.

[HRoarke]

The media National Guard onslaught and Kitty Kelly are going to hit pretty hard I fear. Lots of cheerleading anchors to keep the stories going.

[italianquaker]

OLD NEWS NOTHING NEW TO SEE HERE
CIAO
W2004



KERRY SPITBALLS PRICELESS

[PROSOUTH]

The far left aspect of Kerry will not swing the centrist or moderates that are on the fence of every election. It is no secret that they are the key to winning and the ones who have decided every election of the last century. Even the Dem's made note of this fact upon losing the 2000 election. Their statement then was that they must move toward a centrist position to win the next election. Their statements in 2000 supports the fact that John Kerry was never intended to win. The Democrats conceded the election before the 2004 campaign even started by chosing him.

Just look at this leftwing extremist they are running. He has enough negative aspects from the Vietnam war protest alone to knock him out of contention. I thought from the beginning that the objective was to wait and win in 2008 with two terms into 2016 with Hillary Clinton. There is something about this time frame that is appealing to the D's. If Kerry won the 2004 election it would kill Hillary's chance of running because of Kerry's automatic second term shot. Besides "W" hasn't finished cleaning up the playground yet. j

[Tennessean4Bush]

This is really amazing. 48% certain to vote for Bush means Kerry has to convince 5 of every 6 undecideds to vote for him just to pull even.

[southernnorthcarolina]

Looks like good news to me.

Looks like good gnus to me.

[Soul Seeker]

So now we are up to 12% undecided?

Amazing how that number keeps creeping upward. 5% then 10% now 12%.

[HRoarke]

Good points all but I remember what the polls looked like pre DUI story and then having to wait for a month to find out who the POTUS was going to be.

You may be right in that President Bush is a known quantity now so only the lunatic fringe will buy into the smears. I still think it is going to be ugly.

[plushaye]

"You may be right in that President Bush is a known quantity now so only the lunatic fringe will buy into the smears. I still think it is going to be ugly. "

It WILL be ugly. The coordinated onslaught already is, and we're going to have to endure at least a week or two just with the National Guard and Kitty Kelly lies. BUT this kind of thing turns off undecided voters. They hate the smears and the nasty talking heads. If they are undecided at this point, they may just turn off the vitriolic and wait until the debates. I know I tend to turn the channel or mute the sound when shows like "Crossfire" come on and everyone is just screaming.

[PROSOUTH]

I know my views are not accepted by all, but I think this new Democratic logic will become a reality.

Look at the disgust we all have and share with most Democrats of the political extremes of either party. The moderates swarm to the side that offers the centrist issues attention. I have been such a voter and many others here are as well.

I see the Democrats turning back to center with the proclamation of being the party your grandfather was supportive of and not the left-wing liberal party that has been hi-jacked today. Look for Ted Kennedy to fall from his throne and other left-wing extremist as well for proof.

Also remember that Hillary was a Golden Girl for the Republican Party in the 60's. Starting now the 2008 campaign will focus on Centrism. She will profess that her directions were always to support the middle class working people that make up this centrist roll and "We are taking back our party!" with her at the helm. Realize that she will be supported by all present Democrats and many returning swing moderates from the Republican side as well.

I see the writing on the wall and hope that others will see it as well. I think sKerry was a ringer from the get-go and that he was never intended to win. He may not realize this or have been a part of the conspiracy, but none the less it looks like this time the conspiracy theory is going to pan out.

That is the my perception from the clues given and the Democrats strategy being cultured now for use in the future 2008 election.

The time frame of 2008 has a significance and they also want "W" to clean up the terrorism of the world. The D's are anti-war remember? This will all fall into place during the next four years while George B. cleans up the world for them.