Skip to comments.First Effect of Bush ''Bounce'' - Kerry's Digging An Even Deeper Hole
Posted on 09/07/2004 5:30:25 AM PDT by crushkerry
OK, it's settled that there was indeed a Bush "bounce" after the GOP convention. We were mostly right that the Newsweek and Time polls were way too generous in sampling Republicans. We're not mathematicians, so if you want to read the best analysis of the "inside baseball" of these polls, read DJ Drummond at Polipundit or the "master of the polls" Gerry Daly.
Here's our quick take on the actual numbers from the latest Gallup poll showing President Bush up 52-47. (We don't get too worked up by Rasmussen polls - too inaccurate in 2000, or Zogby phone polls - he's already said Kerry would win). The Kerry people have to squeeze the lemon (which could be Kerry) to find good news here:
Among certain voters, Bush's lead is 8 points (meaning the swing vote of 12% has to go 11%-1% for Kerry to win); Bush's advantage on handling the war on terror is an amazing 27 points; only 46% of Kerry supporters are voting "for" him (as opposed to 50% against Bush), whereas 82% of Bush supporters are voting "for" him; and all Bush's numbers are over the magical 50% mark.
Enough about the numbers, let's get to the fun part - how each candidate reacts to the numbers and adjusts accordingly, and what it tells us about each man. My partner Pat Hynes will be doing another "Memo to Karl Rove" about what Bush must do to keep the lead. I'm here to point out just how utterly putrid John Kerry's reaction to these numbers has been.
Obviously he's forgotten the first rule of being in a hole - STOP DIGGING!. How do we know? Just look at the utterly desperate and pathetic things he's done over the last 5 days.
Because he is the challenger no one really knows how a President John Kerry would react to a situation in which there is immense pressure (which is inevitable), or how he responds when his back is against a wall (and please none of that "Kerry is a good closer nonsense - not now anyway).
The only real window we have is how he reacts to the Bush "bounce". His deficit isn't insurmountable, not by a long shot, but nonetheless, he's losing, and not where he thought he'd be a month ago.
One of the advantages of the race to the White House being so long and tedious is seeing how the challenger can hack the ups and downs, and whether he has what it takes to be our leader. Well, if his reaction thus far is any indication of how he would conduct his Presidency, we can only hope and pray that the only way he gets to the White House is via a public tour.
Before we start looking at his actions the last few days, just a reminder that Kerry has recently taken to criticizing the President's reaction upon immediately hearing about 9/11.
As we have stated before, not even one hour after President Bush finished speaking Kerry had a "Midnight Meltdown" which was damn near embarrassing to watch. His idea of "fighting" back included calling Dick Cheney a draft dodger, saying the President "misled" us into the Iraq war (which he voted for), mentioning Halliburton, getting the Red Sox's standing wrong, and then proceeding with a largely incoherent, seemingly inebriated 35 minute rambling address about nothing. Actually, signs of his desperation were evident the day before in his American Legion speech (where he received a tepid reaction at best) and stupidly accused the President of not "keeping the faith" with veterans. Apparently he totally forgot his own testimony calling them baby killers and murderers.
Things didn't get much better from there. Instead of keeping a steady hand at the helm, Kerry shook up (or as he says "added") to his campaign staff by bringing in not only the spokesman for an impeached President (Joe Lockhart), but by turning to a leading member of the DUKAKIS! campaign team for advice. What's he going to give you advice on - the concession speech?
The last few days has also seen Kerry getting advice from his own supporters who see just how inept his campaign has become. Heck, even Bill Clinton, not 48 hours from heart surgery has to talk to him for 90 minutes and tell him to shut the hell up about Vietnam and focus on domestic issues (this becomes important later). Look folks, real leaders stand by their strategies, campaign or otherwise, when the road gets bumpy - and tell everyone else to shut the hell up.
The next day or two show even more stupidity on the part of Kerry camp, both in what they say and what they don't. The August jobs report comes out showing 144,000 jobs created, and an unemployment rate lower than it was before Bush took office. What does Kerry say about it? Nothing. Instead of being an optimist and saying "It's great, but we can do better", he issues a non-sequitir press statement about outsourcing. Then, as hundreds of schoolchildren are murdered Kerry releases a statement offering the requisite sympathy, but fails to mention anything about this incident reminding us of the war we are in. How very September 10. Meanwhile, President Bush's statement includes not only sympathy, but makes the needed connection between the slaughter and we must play offense in the war on terror.
However, when we look back at Labor Day, 2004, we don't think we'll be able to find a shrink that can explain what the hell John Kerry was thinking for these 24 hours. Why? Because John Kerry's Labor Day performances not only defy logic, but encapsulate his inability to deal with the pressure of the Presidency, or even the campaign trail.
He utterly ignored the advice of Bill Clinton to focus on domestic issues, and ensured nothing of the sort would appear on the front pages, Instead, Kerry made comments on Iraq that could (and likely will) generate a column all its own, in saying that Iraq war "the wrong war, at the wrong place, and the wrong time". Sounding like Howard Dean would be fine if he hadn't voted for the war in October 2002, and had he not said two weeks ago that that he would still have gone to war in Iraq if he knew then what he knew now We can't figure it out. Maybe he has bad memory, but doesn't someone around him let him know of these glaring inconsistencies?
Further, he said he wanted the troops home before the end of his first term. How's he going to do it? What's his plan? Much like the guys in Blazing Saddles (paraphrased) he seems to think that "We Don't Need No Stinkin' Plans".
No, actually, he said that he would make "inducements" to other countries to get them to help. But he seems to forget that in March 2004, he called our allies the "coalition of the bribed". Got that? We "bribed" our allies, but he's going to offer "inducements" to other countries to come into Iraq. Guess it depends on your definitions of "inducements" and "bribes".
But ever the diplomat, today he called our allies (many of whom who have soldiers who've sacrificed their lives) "phony". Great way to "induce" people huh? We're also betting he was too busy windsurfing to have read the August 9, 2004 LA Times piece in which our "allies" said they are not sending troops to Iraq no matter what.
Left unsaid of course (because we wrote about it earlier) is Kerry's spewing of Michael Moore conspiracy theories regarding Bush, the Saudi's and 9/11. We swear one day a shrink is going to look at the Kerry campaign and use it as a case study showing a quick descent into madness.
Even worse however, and what scares us most about his judgment, is that he's putting a time table on getting our troops out without even knowing if anyone would replace them. Imagine you're a terrorist in Iraq. If Kerry wins you lay low, knowing that foreign troops are never coming in, but that Kerry, running for reelection in 08 has to keep his word to get the troops out. What do you do? A 4 year siesta, that's what.
It is just these kind of irrational and dangerous statements from Kerry that make us fear for our safety should he win. However, if he continues to react to the Bush "bounce" as he's doing now, that won't be an issue.
Throw in all the pictures from Russia and Israel showing the recent carnage of terrorists and people will become even more solidly behind Bush. The recent attack against the school children in Chechnya shook a lot of "soccer moms" into reality about terror. They don't trust Kerry with their children's safety.
Go Kerry Go! :)
Good point BUT the news of several Marines deaths in Iraq in the past 24 hrs and an increase in the insurgency fighting could bring W's numbers back down. You can bet the people we're fighting in Iraq know this and will push between now and Nov. 2 to make this election closer than it should be.
yes and the news will get worse. Death toll of US soldiers in Iraq now stands at 995. With the way things going (13 killed in last 48 hours), or even the way they were going (one to two killed a day) we will reach that figure to be reached by the end of the week, and possibly at some stage tomorrow. The Dem press will go big on this one...
We must keep working as though GWB were five points behind - talk to people, write letters to the editors, volunteer to work at headquarters, drive Republicans to the polls if they don't have a way to get there.
McGovern, Mondale, Dukakis, and now Kerry... a proud Democrat legacy.
This is a great post, and summerizes Kerry The Nutcase well.
"Good point BUT the news of several Marines deaths in Iraq in the past 24 hrs and an increase in the insurgency fighting could bring W's numbers back down. You can bet the people we're fighting in Iraq know this and will push between now and Nov. 2 to make this election closer than it should be."
This is the worldwide lefts gamble. They have banked on a Bush loss. Everyone wants the world to go back to where it was under Clinton. Ill gotten gains, murder, terror and the US stands idly by because a few elitists are making a mint off it.
On November 3, the world is going to awaken to find that Bush is still there and payback will be swift and unmerciful. Watch how France and Germany offer to send troops to Iraq.
Watch Syria come to grips with the WMD it is hiding and mysterioulsy "find them" in Lebanon. Iran will decide that maybe a nuclear program is not the best thing for a country that can supply half the world with oil and still have enough to power its own country.
North Korea will continue to be a problem. However, US led negotiations will show NK that it would be beneficial to cancel their program, turn over their nukes and look at using financial inducements to feed its population rather than arming the border.
Should be an interesting November.
Way ahead of you. We've got an article on not getting complacent coming up tomorrow as well as pointing out several potential pitfalls that await.
Thank you sir.
Let's not forget Gore...and too bad Clinton isn't added.
On this message board, he's kind of "preaching to the choir".
The best way to gain converts is taking your message to the "un-believers".
I wonder if there isn't a way to post this entire piece on "MoveOn.org"???
It will not be the first time Kerry aided enemies of our nation to kill our soldiers. Kerry's MO is to encourage the nations's enemies to hold on and hold on until he can manipulate political matters to ensure their victory and accrue power to himself. He did it in the 1970s; he'll do it again as President, and he will care little for the military lives lost.
Good piece, but the unemployment rate in January and February 2001 was 4.2% (vs. 5.4% now, down from 6.3% in mid-2003).
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