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LABOR DAY CNN-GALLUP POLL, BUSH 52% KERRY 45%
September 6, 2004 | MrChips

Posted on 09/06/2004 12:31:30 PM PDT by MrChips

Just announced on CNN.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 5ptbounce; bushbounce; gallup; kewl; laborday; poll; polls
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To: MrChips
Golden Oldie:

Tracking poll: Bush, Gore neck-and-neck out of the gate
By Keating Holland/CNN


September 7, 2000
Web posted at: 4:56 p.m. EDT (2056 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Vice President Al Gore and Texas Gov.
George W. Bush are neck-and-neck at the outset of a
daily presidential CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll.

In the poll conducted September 4-6, Gore appears to have a slight edge among the poll's 1,259 respondents, including 777 likely voters. Among the likely voters, 47 percent said they plan to vote for Gore, the Democratic nominee for president, while 44 percent said they plan to cast ballots for GOP nominee Bush. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll has a margin of plus or minus four percentage points, meaning the two are in a statistical dead heat.

21 posted on 09/06/2004 12:37:58 PM PDT by Porterville (How can the median price of a home in CA be 450,000 dollars? How? Where is the money?)
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To: MrChips

Just about all the polls I've seen have Bush at or around 52%. A good place to be in as we steam through Labor Day.


22 posted on 09/06/2004 12:38:07 PM PDT by GiveEmDubya (Four More Years)
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To: Truthsearcher

Gallup disagrees:

"The bounce, thus, is the difference in the candidate's vote percentage in the last nationwide poll conducted before the convention and the first nationwide poll conducted after his party's convention."

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12919

No mention of the margin between the two candidates.


23 posted on 09/06/2004 12:38:11 PM PDT by Ed_in_LA
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To: oceanview

I agree they are setting us up
but 7 to 10 really isnt very much difference when you include MOE

So all the polls seem to be saying same thing.Bush up about 7 maybe 8


24 posted on 09/06/2004 12:38:32 PM PDT by skaterboy
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To: comebacknewt

Precisely. And that fact that the Dems are scrambling to replace Kerry's team at this late a date adds even more gloom and doom to their plight.





heheheh.


25 posted on 09/06/2004 12:38:51 PM PDT by EggsAckley (.......John Kerry suffers from delusions of adequacy........)
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To: MrChips
This looks like a more realistic number than the double digit leads Newsweak and Tyme have been pushing.

The ulterior motive of Time/Newsweak/CNN/ Wa Post/nyT/LAT is so transparent --- show a double digit bush lead, followed a week later by the REAL 5-7 pt lead and proclaim that Kerry is coming back and has the momentum.

26 posted on 09/06/2004 12:38:54 PM PDT by commish (Freedom Tastes Sweetest to Those Who Have Fought to Preserve It)
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To: OSHA

LOL

WOOHOO here too.

I wonder what the President's job approval is according to Gallup?


27 posted on 09/06/2004 12:39:27 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: ScaniaBoy

8% is what Dick Morris predicted


28 posted on 09/06/2004 12:40:18 PM PDT by MrChips (ARD)
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To: Petronski

Be aware that the guy who runs that website is a liberal, as shown by his links (Guardian, New York Times!)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/political-websites.html


29 posted on 09/06/2004 12:40:23 PM PDT by alnitak ("That kid's about as sharp as a pound of wet liver" - Foghorn Leghorn)
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To: MrChips

8% is what I predicted. LOL!


30 posted on 09/06/2004 12:40:43 PM PDT by ShandaLear (Swifties v. MoveOn.org: David slays Goliath)
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To: Ed_in_LA

So according to Gallup, if you polled 48-47 before and 48-40 after, that means there has been no bounce, or if you polled 47-42 afterwards, you got a -1 bounce.

Does that make sense to you?


31 posted on 09/06/2004 12:41:13 PM PDT by Truthsearcher
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To: alnitak

Yeah, but I think data is data. I ran the tradesports.com data (expectations among gamblers) and state-by-state, Bush has 285 EV and Gore 255. Now, that's a different measure (prediction v. preference), but markets have an uncanny way of finding the truth, and the tradesports.com people have real money on the line.


32 posted on 09/06/2004 12:42:18 PM PDT by Petronski (With what? Spitballs!?!)
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To: commish

This is a good number. Bush is 8% ahead of where he was on Labor day in 2000.


33 posted on 09/06/2004 12:43:22 PM PDT by MrChips (ARD)
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To: Truthsearcher

"So according to Gallup, if you polled 48-47 before and 48-40 after, that means there has been no bounce, or if you polled 47-42 afterwards, you got a -1 bounce.

Does that make sense to you?'

Actually, it does.

Consider that the 'bounce' in candidates pols would have to show an 'increase' in his. Not a decrease in his opponents.

If you use the 48-47 and 48-40 figures, it just shows that some that were in the 'Kerry' column are not questioning their decision.


34 posted on 09/06/2004 12:44:05 PM PDT by Bigh4u2
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To: Petronski

Ach! Not Gore 255, Kerry 255. They're both psychos...who can blame me for confusing them?


35 posted on 09/06/2004 12:44:12 PM PDT by Petronski (With what? Spitballs!?!)
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To: MrChips

A few weeks ago on Hannity, Dick Morris was on and to paraphrase he said that Bush had to be at or around 52% to be in a solid enough position as we get into the real campaign (as in post-Labor Day). Dubya is right where he needs to be.


36 posted on 09/06/2004 12:44:34 PM PDT by GiveEmDubya (Four More Years)
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To: All

Only 38% of people now say war in Iraq was a mistake.


37 posted on 09/06/2004 12:44:37 PM PDT by MrChips (ARD)
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To: Bigh4u2

"If you use the 48-47 and 48-40 figures, it just shows that some that were in the 'Kerry' column are not questioning their decision. "

Sorry,.

Should have read 'are NOW questioning their decision.'


38 posted on 09/06/2004 12:44:55 PM PDT by Bigh4u2
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To: MrChips
I figured Bush`s lead would be between 3%-8% in Gallup.

Seven points is a solid lead.

39 posted on 09/06/2004 12:45:54 PM PDT by Reagan Man (.....................................................The Choice is Clear....... Re-elect BUSH-CHENEY)
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To: MrChips

I will gladly take the 7%. It sounds more realistic than the 11.


40 posted on 09/06/2004 12:46:08 PM PDT by Merry
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