LABOR DAY CNN-GALLUP POLL, BUSH 52% KERRY 45%

September 6, 2004 | MrChips

[MrChips]

Just announced on CNN.

[Porterville]

Golden Oldie:

Tracking poll: Bush, Gore neck-and-neck out of the gate
By Keating Holland/CNN

September 7, 2000
Web posted at: 4:56 p.m. EDT (2056 GMT)

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Vice President Al Gore and Texas Gov.
George W. Bush are neck-and-neck at the outset of a
daily presidential CNN/USA Today/Gallup tracking poll.

In the poll conducted September 4-6, Gore appears to have a slight edge among the poll's 1,259 respondents, including 777 likely voters. Among the likely voters, 47 percent said they plan to vote for Gore, the Democratic nominee for president, while 44 percent said they plan to cast ballots for GOP nominee Bush. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll has a margin of plus or minus four percentage points, meaning the two are in a statistical dead heat.

[GiveEmDubya]

Just about all the polls I've seen have Bush at or around 52%. A good place to be in as we steam through Labor Day.

[Ed_in_LA]

Gallup disagrees:

"The bounce, thus, is the difference in the candidate's vote percentage in the last nationwide poll conducted before the convention and the first nationwide poll conducted after his party's convention."

http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12919

No mention of the margin between the two candidates.

[skaterboy]

I agree they are setting us up
but 7 to 10 really isnt very much difference when you include MOE

So all the polls seem to be saying same thing.Bush up about 7 maybe 8

[EggsAckley]

Precisely. And that fact that the Dems are scrambling to replace Kerry's team at this late a date adds even more gloom and doom to their plight.





heheheh.

[commish]

This looks like a more realistic number than the double digit leads Newsweak and Tyme have been pushing.

The ulterior motive of Time/Newsweak/CNN/ Wa Post/nyT/LAT is so transparent --- show a double digit bush lead, followed a week later by the REAL 5-7 pt lead and proclaim that Kerry is coming back and has the momentum.

[snarkytart]

LOL

WOOHOO here too.

I wonder what the President's job approval is according to Gallup?

[MrChips]

8% is what Dick Morris predicted

[alnitak]

Be aware that the guy who runs that website is a liberal, as shown by his links (Guardian, New York Times!)

http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/political-websites.html

[ShandaLear]

8% is what I predicted. LOL!

[Truthsearcher]

So according to Gallup, if you polled 48-47 before and 48-40 after, that means there has been no bounce, or if you polled 47-42 afterwards, you got a -1 bounce.

Does that make sense to you?

[Petronski]

Yeah, but I think data is data. I ran the tradesports.com data (expectations among gamblers) and state-by-state, Bush has 285 EV and Gore 255. Now, that's a different measure (prediction v. preference), but markets have an uncanny way of finding the truth, and the tradesports.com people have real money on the line.

[MrChips]

This is a good number. Bush is 8% ahead of where he was on Labor day in 2000.

[Bigh4u2]

"So according to Gallup, if you polled 48-47 before and 48-40 after, that means there has been no bounce, or if you polled 47-42 afterwards, you got a -1 bounce.

Does that make sense to you?'

Actually, it does.

Consider that the 'bounce' in candidates pols would have to show an 'increase' in his. Not a decrease in his opponents.

If you use the 48-47 and 48-40 figures, it just shows that some that were in the 'Kerry' column are not questioning their decision.

[Petronski]

Ach! Not Gore 255, Kerry 255. They're both psychos...who can blame me for confusing them?

[GiveEmDubya]

A few weeks ago on Hannity, Dick Morris was on and to paraphrase he said that Bush had to be at or around 52% to be in a solid enough position as we get into the real campaign (as in post-Labor Day). Dubya is right where he needs to be.

[MrChips]

Only 38% of people now say war in Iraq was a mistake.

[Bigh4u2]

"If you use the 48-47 and 48-40 figures, it just shows that some that were in the 'Kerry' column are not questioning their decision. "

Sorry,.

Should have read 'are NOW questioning their decision.'

[Reagan Man]

I figured Bush`s lead would be between 3%-8% in Gallup.

Seven points is a solid lead.

[Merry]

I will gladly take the 7%. It sounds more realistic than the 11.