Looks like Intellicast's guesstimate is slowing it down even more...and forecasting it to build back up to Category Four before landfall, once the shear lets up. And then stalling it over the coast Saturday night. Not good.
}:-)4
I am in Melbourne..and think it is truly going to stall right on our coast and drift inland from southern brevard/north vero beach for 2 days...that scenario is VERY REAL...and VERY POSSIBLE.
Will Jerry buy the farm due to flying debris?
Where does Rush live? Isn't he on the coast near West Palm Beach?
thanks for the link to the Patton site - my Dad followed Patton.
Thanks for starting these Frances-related threads. BTW, I keep forgetting to mention (until now) that the father of my best childhood friend served with Patton.
Awesome maps and graphics. Thanks for posting them. I had no idea what the trajectory was/is. It looks like Miami/Dade should only get heavy rain, right?
hurricane frances intermediate advisory number 37a
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
2 am edt fri sep 03 2004
...frances weakens slightly more ...still a dangerous category three hurricane moving through the bahamas...
a hurricane warning is in effect for the east coast of florida from florida city northward to flagler beach...including lake okeechobee. a hurricane warning also remains in effect for the central and northwestern bahamas.
a tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the middle and upper florida keys from south of florida city southward to the seven mile bridge...including florida bay.
a hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
at 2 am edt...0600z...the eye of hurricane frances was located by reconnaissance aircraft and radar near latitude 24.7 north... longitude 75.7 west or near the northern end of cat island. this is also about 310 miles...495 km...east-southeast of the florida lower east coast.
frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...14 km/hr ...and a west-northwest to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. on this track...the core of hurricane frances will continue to move near or over the central bahamas this morning...and over the northwestern bahamas later today.
reports from an air force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher gusts. frances is still a strong category three hurricane on the saffir-simpson hurricane scale. some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours.
hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km.
the latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter is 954 mb...28.17 inches.
storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels... along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the eye of frances on the west side of eleuthera island...and on the north side of grand bahama island. storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west side of the other islands of the bahamas. coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 11 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall in florida.
rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...are possible in association with frances.
swells generated by frances will be affecting portions of the southeastern coast of the united states. these swells could cause dangerous surf and rip currents.
repeating the 2 am edt position...24.7 n... 75.7 w. movement toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. maximum sustained winds...120 mph. minimum central pressure... 954 mb.
for storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
the next advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 5 am edt.
bump, thank you for the information
Is that your detailed graphic of FL map with wind speeds as Frances crosses FL? If not your source? Outstanding graphic if accurate! (Tampa Bay) ;-)
Mickey and Goofy better batten down the hatches.
Two words, Holy SHiitemuslim!
For what it's worth, 1100Z METAR from the airport at Nassau, Bahamas:
MYNN 031100Z 36040G65KT 9999 -RA BKN010 BKN070 27/20 Q994 3D 430 SAPO32 LPMG 031100
Winds from 360 at 40 knots gusting 65 knots, light rain, ceiling 1000 broken 7000 broken, pressure 994 mb. Yoiks!
}:-)4
Looks like Intellicast's guesstimate is slowing it down even more...and forecasting it to build back up to Category Four before landfall, once the shear lets up. And then stalling it over the coast Saturday night. Not good.
}:-)4
Bump
Hoping that bad boy will weaken, somehow.
My youngest sister lives in Lake Placid (it's on the map, just south of Sebring). Please help me pray for her and all the old people who live around her...
CRAP it looks like she's turning north!!
11AM UPDATE
WTNT41 KNHC 031446
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OR EYEWALL
OF FRANCES HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
HAS RISEN TO 959 MB. IN ADDITION...SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE
DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS
WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...FRANCES IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THERE IS PLENTY
OF TIME...ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...FOR CHANGES IN THE INNER
STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE TO OCCUR...WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES
OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO
RE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
CALLS FOR A 100-KNOT HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.
FRANCES IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT 8
KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
FORCING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...BUT BECAUSE
STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...THE HURRICANE
WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN ON ITS WAY TO FLORIDA. THIS COULD DELAY THE
LANDFALL A FEW MORE HOURS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING
THE HURRICANE OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
BECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING
TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/1500Z 25.5N 76.7W 100 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 26.3N 77.6W 100 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 27.0N 79.0W 100 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 27.5N 80.0W 100 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 28.5N 81.5W 55 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1200Z 33.5N 85.9W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1200Z 38.0N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND
Well, I am still here in Jax. Kind of windy at my house right now. It probably isn't related. I wish this thing would just blow it self out. I am still praying for all of my fellow Floridians down south.