Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



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[AnAmericanMother]

Eep!

My parents live just north of St Simons. They were figuring they were in pretty good shape.

All the met guys can do at this point is give us general predictions anyhow. Lots of water to cover between the current position and the coast.

[Moose4]

Looks like Intellicast's guesstimate is slowing it down even more...and forecasting it to build back up to Category Four before landfall, once the shear lets up. And then stalling it over the coast Saturday night. Not good.

}:-)4

[Hatteras]

I just read in the latest advisory at the National Hurricane Center is that Frances is over Eleuthera and they have reported sustained winds of 100 mph and the storm is only moving at 9 mph!

Growing up, my family spent time on a few occasions on Windermere Island on the mid-east coast of Eleuthera. Beautiful place, beautiful people. I wish them the best.

[Moose4]

Talked to a friend last night that lives west of Fort Lauderdale...she's not in an evacuation zone, so she's hunkered down in her apartment with two cats and every container she can find full of water (plus the tub full of water for the toilet). I told her if all else fails, she can use the three 30-pound tubs of Tidy Cat that she stocked up on. :)

Her parents have a vacation home on St. Simons. They bailed out and are now in a motel room across the state in Columbus.

}:-)4

[mewzilla]

There's shear? Great! Do they expect it to continue?

[SE Mom]

"There's shear? Great! Do they expect it to continue?"

Not really, as I just heard the eye is reforming and is expected to strengthen back to a Cat 4...

[Patton@Bastogne]

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[AnAmericanMother]

My parents don't live on a barrier island like St Simons, they are actually on an interior island quite close to the mainland. But I am NOT happy about their being there.

They are independent cusses, though, and I made my recommendation and they rejected it. Maybe as the storm gets closer they will change their minds. If it takes a northward turn I will give them another call. :-(

[Patton@Bastogne]

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[killjoy]

East Boca reporting back in. It is getting a little windy here but not raining yet. I am waiting for my friends to start coming over to ride out the storm. They came by last night and dropped off a lot of their 'important' things.

On a lot of other threads on FR I have spoken my mind on some things and have gotten attacked pretty bad over it. In short, 2 of the 11 people who will be riding out the storm at my house are Muslim. One is from Turkey and one is from Lebanon. My friend from Turkey gave me the plywood and screws that I used to board up my house. They stayed at my place helping me put the wood up even when they should have been taking care of their families. (This was before the determination was made to ride things out at my house.) If it wasn't for these two people, my house would not stand a chance of surviving. I don't want to make this thread political, but still feel that I should post this given all the bad feelings a lot of people have on FR to people they only know about from watching the TV.

[VeniVidiVici]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 031140
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 38A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH IN ELEUTHERA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST. THIS POSITION IS
OVER ELEUTHERA IN THE BAHAMAS AND ALSO ABOUT 260 MILES...400
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
...THE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY.

FRANCES REMAINS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR
120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. ELEUTHERA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF NEAR 100 MPH...161 KM/HR AND NASSAU JUST REPORTED A 75 MPH...120
KM/HR WIND GUST.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE EYE OF FRANCES ON THE WEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND...AND
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...25.3 N... 76.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

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[Portnoy]

Bump

[jwpjr]

There is nothing as neat as riding out Government Street and seeing all those lovely homes and giant oak trees, and then stopping at the Krispy Kreme at the Loop for a dozen cream filled, glazed donuts! I used to march in the Mardi Gras parades, but that was the mid-50's.

[jpsb]

Who'd thunk it, Frances is falling apart.

[PJ-Comix]

What effect does the Gulfstream have on hurricanes as they pass over it?

[lizma]

My inlaws have a beach house in North Vero Beach /Indian River Shores. Looks like its gonna be had house.

We're planning to go down on Wednesday to start the clean-up.

[kimmie7]

Oh, he knows everything. (rolling eyes)

"Ain't no *&%^#&* hurricaine gonna stop my getting drunk all weekend!" (more eye rolling)

"I'm a man, by G--"(eyes look like a slot machine)

[Moose4]

I think they're going to be OK, unless that high pressure ridge totally evaporates and Frances does something totally unexpected. So far, the NHC has done an excellent job with this one...we just have to pray for no Charley-like surprises.

}:-)4

[don-o]

Thanks for the new thread and the great graphics.

Hoping that bad boy will weaken, somehow.

[Milwaukee_Guy]

Monitoring the Hurricane Watch Net on Ham Radio 14.325 via this Internet streaming link.

http://66.54.65.166:8056/

I am using WINAMP as my media player.

The NHC Hurricane Net is currently taking weather reports, damage reports, health and welfare traffic from the affected areas.

Compelling realtime information!