Hurricane Frances : 2004-09-03 : Friday Targeting Alert

N/A | 2004-09-03 | Patton@Bastogne

[Patton@Bastogne]

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Hurricane Frances : Free Republic's Friday Discussion Thread (2004-09-03)






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First, Thursday Night's Closing Summary (AlanCarp's Post):


ETA Computer Model - Melbourne strike - taking 24 hours to approach the coast. Arrival 11am Sunday. Takes at least another 24 hours to cross Florida - exiting in the Big Bend region.


GFDL Computer Model - Melbourne strike - similar to the ETA solution. A little quicker to the shore, arriving at 2am Sunday morning.


GFS Computer Model - Melbourne strike, from a lower angle, and still slow to approach, arriving 8am Sunday morning. This is a worse-case solution, creeping up from the West Palm area. Leaves the state via Valdosta (finally) nearly TWO DAYS later!


EURO Computer Model - Melbourne strike (got the trend here?) at 8pm Saturday night. SAME POSITION 24 hours later!! Exits to Panama City in another 24 hours.


UKMET Computer Model - Melbourne (*sigh*) to Tampa in 72 hours (8pm Saturday night state exit). By far the quickest solution, but that's still over the state for a DAY.


NOGAPS Computer Model - Strikes at West Palm Bch (surprise) 2pm Saturday. Exits near Tampa in about 24 hours after that.


The models have converged on the East Coast, but it is expected to be a Very Slow Slog to get there, with EXTREME devastation involved from a lengthy visit from an unruly guest.

Accuweather is guessing three options, the Carolina trek still being possible, but sounds a lot like Options 1 and 2 are close to the model projections above.



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EXCELLENT Hurricane Frances Websites:


HURRICANE ALLEY

U.S. Weather Observers

Hurricane Basics

NOAA Hurricane FAQs

Go here for current traffic conditions in Florida: http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/




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Patton@Bastogne
Free Republic Member since 1998.



General George S. Patton Jr. Website



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[bitt]

thanks for the link to the Patton site - my Dad followed Patton.

[AGreatPer]

Wow, the Behamas had to get clobbered. I have heard no reports. Wondering where they go to evade the storm. Hell, there is no place to hide.

[janetgreen]

I hope my aunt will be OK. She's a tough little lady, 90 years old and lives alone. Floridians sure have had more than their share of problems! Hope it's over soon and that everyone will be safe.

[jwpjr]

re: "Same here in Mobile"

You guys in Mobile are old hands at handling a storm like this aren't you? I lived in Grand Bay years ago and my sister still lives in Mobile. I worked a couple of years for WUNI radio, but that might have been before your time. Mobile has been surviving big storms for longer than most places in America have been a city! It's not the 'City of Five Flags' for nothing!

[rwfromkansas]

Models still are forecasting it to strengthen significantly prior to landfall. Whether that occurs or not....well, we will see.

At least a couple models are pushing landfall a bit further north as well closer to Orlando...won't really have a handle on this until tomorrow morning probably.

[Brytani]

One of my husbands co-workers has a brother who lives in the Bahamas. This co-worker spoke to his brother yesterday by cell phone, reports were the winds were really picking up, some light damage had occured already and they were just starting to get into the hurricane.

That's the last he's heard from his brother. My husband reports to work tomorrow at 6am for the length of the storm. This particular co-worker will also be there, hubby will find out if he's been able to contact his brother, get reports and let me know how much Frances ate of the Islands.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

Thanks for starting these Frances-related threads. BTW, I keep forgetting to mention (until now) that the father of my best childhood friend served with Patton.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

My parents live to the west of you in Lake Wales. Charley slammed them pretty hard too.

[Cold Heat]

The dems are hoping for major damage from this storm, to disrupt the economy and cause high unemployment numbers.

I heard it with my own ears on CNN tonight from a dem.

They need to be neutered.

[NotJustAnotherPrettyFace]

(Funny screen name and welcome to FR!) Stay safe!

[rwfromkansas]

Cat 3

[Choose Ye This Day]

Awesome maps and graphics. Thanks for posting them. I had no idea what the trajectory was/is. It looks like Miami/Dade should only get heavy rain, right?

[Cold Heat]

The internal pressures indicate a two, but the 11pm report said 125mph winds, they did not say the winds were sustained.

I would say we should be very cautious and see if tomorrows daytime heating does not strengthen it.

It also appears to me to be turning further to the North, which would have it skirting the coast and heading back out.

I hope so.

[Ingtar]

Andrew and Hugo did similar then hit the Gulf Stream and jumped at least one category up.

[Mariner]

Sir, I think there's gonna be a hard rain in your parts.....

[Hillarys Gate Cult]

Weather Channel announcers yesterday morning stated that they expected several fluctuations in speed before the storm makes landfall. It's weakening is not a surprise.

[buccaneer81]

You get along that well with your ex? I salute you, brother.

[VeniVidiVici]

Janet, she may have already been evacuated. Especially if she lives in a mobile home.

http://www.stlucieco.gov/eoc/alerts/index.asp

[shield]

bmp