Posted on 09/02/2004 2:17:04 PM PDT by KQQL
John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied in the race for president both among Americans registered to vote and among likely voters according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters, 48% say they would vote for Kerry and 46% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 46% of registered voters say they would vote for Kerry, 45% say they would vote for Bush, and 3% say they would vote for Nader.
Among registered voters considered likely to vote in November, Bush is at 48% and Kerry is at 47% in a two-way ballot. With Nader in the race, Bush and Kerry are tied at 47% each among likely voters and Nader is at 3%.
September 1 Bush Kerry Undecided
All voters 46% 48% 6% Likely voters 48% 47% 5%
All voters: Republicans (35%) 86% 8% 6% Democrats (37%) 9% 84% 7% Independents (28%) 44% 49% 7%
(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...
Did you ever explain why you revised the amount of the vote W would get above his approval rating down from 1.5% to 0.5%? If you did, I missed it, and I have been curious.
Thanks.
Nader's votes are not all coming from Kerry. At least 1/3 come from Bush. In some polls it is 50/50.
I wonder if this poll is biased.
Argh!
It's better than ECONOMIST poll..
Hmmmmmmm....that's a-some a-spicy TROLL sauce you got there KQCL!
regardless of how well bush is really doing, i hope the media keeps the people convinced it is a deadheat all the way to nov 2. that is the only way to get some on the right (and far right) out to vote.
many conservatives won't bother voting if they think it is a done deal already (shame on them) -- especialy ones that have to hold their noses when they vote due to the fiscal liberalism, big government, federalized education, etc. policies of bush.
It's all about the trends. Beware Rass, though. Could be an outlier.
do you include Economist in those numbers?
RealClearPolitics Poll Averages:
3-Way: Bush 46.1, Kerry 45.6, Nader 3.1
Head-to-Head: Bush 47.5, Kerry 46.9
Bush JA: 50.1 Approve/46.5 Disapprove
Where was this poll conducted France Tell them Stop already
w2004
ciao
Spitball Kerry Priceless
. . . excellent trendlines from these two VERY left-leaning pollsters [left-leaning pollsters: pollsters who either design or 'weight' their polls to benefit Democrats].
FYI: real clear politics puts the President's job approval average ABOVE the critical 50% benchmark!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
FYI2: Rasmussen's tracking poll puts the President's job approval rating at 54/46 and his match-up advantage at 49/45!!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com
President George W. Bush - Job Approval Ratings
|
||||
Poll
|
Date
|
Approve
|
Disapprove
|
Spread
|
RCP Average
|
8/21 - 9/1
|
50.1%
|
46.5%
|
+3.6%
|
8/30 - 9/1
|
54%
|
46%
|
+8%
|
|
8/30 - 9/1
|
45%
|
48%
|
-3%
|
|
8/26 - 8/29
|
50%
|
47%
|
+3%
|
|
8/9 - 8/29
|
53%
|
46%
|
+7%
|
|
8/24 - 8/26
|
51%
|
45%
|
+6%
|
|
8/24 - 8/25
|
51%
|
43%
|
+8%
|
|
8/23 - 8/25
|
49%
|
47%
|
+2%
|
|
8/23 - 8/25
|
47%
|
48%
|
-1%
|
|
8/21 - 8/24
|
49%
|
48%
|
+1%
|
|
8/21 - 8/24
|
52%
|
47%
|
+5%
|
|
Likely voters (B) 48% (K) 47% (U)5%
ARG is heavily weighted to the Dems (2-3%).
Ipso fatso, Francois is toast.
I think Bush is probably doing a lot better in the polls than the media wants to show. They want the polls to show even numbers because they want to keep up the suspense and draw in more viewers. I think the media are the ones who are the most divisive and they should stop blaming it all on FNC. They're all in a horse race for ratings and circulation. All of them. And when they cozy up with nutcases like Michael Moore they do nothing to help their credibility.
JA 45%? What a crock. Bush's JA over the last 10 polls is over 50.5% at RCP. ARG is a useless pollster.
Josh - in those polls how did ARG's weightings look? - I usually agree that ARG polls are biased....However, their weightings here look fine (37-35-28) - (in fact that is a little biased toward our side)...
Don't know, I don't have the internals of those polls just the raw numbers..
They are clearly a Democratic Push Poll.
LS - while ARG has a history of being more biased....You have to back up your claims with specifics -
When you look at the facts of this poll....the weightings show NO bias - 37D-35R-28I - (in fact the Dem's nationally have a 4pt edge) -
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