Posted on 08/30/2004 5:38:11 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 284 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 254 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 276.40 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
Great job, as usual. Could you please post that chart showing the movement of Bush's projected (odds-adjusted) electoral votes? I'd like to see the line move up for the first time in quite a while!
Wow, that was quick! You posted it before I hit "post." : )
See post #4
My bet? By the time this is done, your graph is going to look like one giant smile.
NM looks pretty attractive to this bargain hunter.
I'm really worried about Ohio.
I used to live there. My family still does. I constantly get gripes about Bush when I talk to my family.
They seem to blame him and the Republican leadership of the state about how crappy the economy is there.
Offshoring and outsourcing are big issues in Ohio. Kerry is going to be a MESS. We need to get the message out.
I agree with you - OH is very tight - The economy is by far the number one issue in OH -
The GWB team needs to start getting positive economy ads on the air in OH - Now!! - The premise on the economy needs to be set -
The people of OH are very patriotic and this will surly help GWB - But the economy really has been struggling there and gas prices are way up also -
If GWB wins OH and FL I can't see him losing - Kerry has to take one of these and OH looks to be a better shot for him then FL - (that is also why you see the media trying to spin OH for Kerry at every opportunity) -
Nice rally for the Prez. Look how Wisconsin and West Virginia have jumped over to Bush Country. And a few others who were under 40% have moved back into play. I would like to see better numbers from Pennsylvania, though.
It's pretty big in Michigan, too.
Agree - the economy is a big issue in MI as well (It is the biggest issue overall for the Country) -
However, the economy as a whole is going very strong - We just need to get the message out -
In OH and somewhat in MI the expansion and growth is not showing up yet (but it will!) -
Also, MI is a pro-Kerry State - It is a definite lean Kerry State - While OH is a State we must win!! -
I built what I thought was a cool excel spreadsheet I was dumping the data into for analysis.
Then I found this guy's interactive tradesports analysis. It is great. You can pick the margins whether to base the analysis on bid price ask price etc. Link is: http://geekmedia.org/tradesports/index.php?lowNeutrality=50&highNeutrality=50&neutralColor=&submit=change+options
Lets see - MN going to GWB this year - I don't think that will happen - It was close in 2000 but Nader pulled a good size vote there - That won't happen this time - MN also has voted R since 1972! (that is 32 years!) -
Your notion that we will take IA and WI - Still those 2 don't make up for a loss in OH (if that was to happen) - So not a good trade-off -
New gallup poll puts Kerry up 5pts in IA - (BTW) -
I still say OH is key - (OH,FL and MO) - GWB takes those 3 Kerry is going to play hell winning -
You don't know how anxiously I have been awaiting this weeks report.
It is everything I was expecting!!
With the near dirt nap Kerry took from the SBV's, if I didnt see an uptick, I would have been very dubious of this tracking method. But, I held the faith and look forward to a real blowout come November. (After all I am an optimist.... and DEFINITELY see a pattern.)
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