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Here I go again. With the way things are going in the upper Midwest, OH is not such a must win state. I'm beginning to think there is too much of an eastern establishment bias going on in Freeperland! And yes I know Ohio is not truly eastern, but for a guy like me out here its darn close enough. I just asked my sister who live in Sioux County IA whether IA was going to get its EV votes to Bush this time. She insisted that they are. Sioux County had skulduggery last time around and Gore came up with a couple of thousand extra votes there alone if I remember right. Now they are highly motivated to see it righted this time. I predict IA and WI will go Bush country. I believe with reapportionment we can still win even if we lose NH as looks to be the case at this point. And if things stay on course we will have MN too. Of course, if things stay on the course they are now we will definitely take OH too. But we don't have to pin ALL of our hope on OH.

Lets see - MN going to GWB this year - I don't think that will happen - It was close in 2000 but Nader pulled a good size vote there - That won't happen this time - MN also has voted R since 1972! (that is 32 years!) -

Your notion that we will take IA and WI - Still those 2 don't make up for a loss in OH (if that was to happen) - So not a good trade-off -

New gallup poll puts Kerry up 5pts in IA - (BTW) -

I still say OH is key - (OH,FL and MO) - GWB takes those 3 Kerry is going to play hell winning -

Reagan almost carried MN in 1984.

Dubya almost carried MN in 2000.

The Minnesota Democrat Party is self-destructing, and interest groups that have been an important part of the coalition (like the rural blue collar union membership) are been really pissed off at the urban liberal leadership this year.

(The GOP controls the House and the governor's office. The DFL barely controls the Senate. The Senate isn't up for reelection this year, so the leadership decided to dig in their heels and resist the GOP agenda.

As a result of which absolutely nothing happened in the legislature this year. That is to say we closed the session without a bonding bill.

Which means no pork to the DFL constituencies.

It's going to be close, but I'd guess that Bush has a >50% chance of carrying the state.

"Still those 2 don't make up for a loss in OH (if that was to happen)"

Again, keeping your eye on OH causes you to keep your eye only on OH. No doubt we win with OH, but that is not at all the only way.

I mentioned the reapportionment and I just did the math and yes I am correct. A loss of OH can be withstood by taking WI and IA. And I say both will be done! I am discounting the 2000 results by 4 for the loss of NH. Reapportionment gained us 7. Net gain of 3. Add that to the 17 coming from the upper Midwest and you have 20. Ohio is not the only key and probably not the easiest key to use IMHO.