2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/30/2004

TradeSports.com ^ | Monday, August 30, 2004 | Momaw Nadon

[Momaw Nadon]

State	% Chance of Bush Winning	Bush Electoral Votes	Kerry Electoral Votes
Alabama	97.0	9	0
Alaska	95.5	3	0
Arizona	69.7	10	0
Arkansas	70.0	6	0
California	10.5	0	55
Colorado	70.0	9	0
Connecticut	8.0	0	7
Delaware	15.0	0	3
District of Columbia	1.0	0	3
Florida	56.8	27	0
Georgia	97.0	15	0
Hawaii	7.0	0	4
Idaho	95.5	4	0
Illinois	9.0	0	21
Indiana	96.0	11	0
Iowa	43.0	0	7
Kansas	96.0	6	0
Kentucky	93.5	8	0
Louisiana	90.1	9	0
Maine	26.0	0	4
Maryland	13.0	0	10
Massachusetts	5.6	0	12
Michigan	35.5	0	17
Minnesota	40.8	0	10
Mississippi	96.0	6	0
Missouri	64.5	11	0
Montana	96.0	3	0
Nebraska	96.0	5	0
Nevada	58.0	5	0
New Hampshire	37.0	0	4
New Jersey	13.0	0	15
New Mexico	35.1	0	5
New York	7.0	0	31
North Carolina	76.0	15	0
North Dakota	96.0	3	0
Ohio	61.9	20	0
Oklahoma	97.0	7	0
Oregon	37.6	0	7
Pennsylvania	38.6	0	21
Rhode Island	4.0	0	4
South Carolina	96.0	8	0
South Dakota	96.0	3	0
Tennessee	70.0	11	0
Texas	98.0	34	0
Utah	96.0	5	0
Vermont	4.0	0	3
Virginia	81.0	13	0
Washington	30.0	0	11
West Virginia	58.3	5	0
Wisconsin	53.0	10	0
Wyoming	97.0	3	0
Totals		284	254

[Momaw Nadon]

I went to TradeSports.com which is a futures market in which people bet on the outcomes of various things.

According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.

If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 284 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 254 Electoral Votes.

If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 276.40 Electoral Votes.

270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.

Opinions and commentary are welcome.

[Momaw Nadon]

Previous projections:

2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 8/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 7/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/28/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/21/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/14/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 6/7/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/31/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/24/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/17/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/10/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 5/3/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/19/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/12/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 4/5/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/29/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/22/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/15/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/8/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 3/1/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/23/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/16/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/9/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 2/2/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/26/2004
2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

[Momaw Nadon]

If you want on (or off) of the weekly TradeSports.com Projected Presidential Electoral Vote ping list, please let me know via FREEPmail.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Great job, as usual. Could you please post that chart showing the movement of Bush's projected (odds-adjusted) electoral votes? I'd like to see the line move up for the first time in quite a while!

[AuH2ORepublican]

Wow, that was quick! You posted it before I hit "post." : )

[Momaw Nadon]

See post #4

[Delphinium]

How sure are we that Washington, Oregon and New Mexico will go for Kerry?

Those percentages look to low to me?

[fhayek]

My bet? By the time this is done, your graph is going to look like one giant smile.

[comebacknewt]

NM looks pretty attractive to this bargain hunter.

[Malsua]

I'm really worried about Ohio.

I used to live there. My family still does. I constantly get gripes about Bush when I talk to my family.

They seem to blame him and the Republican leadership of the state about how crappy the economy is there.

Offshoring and outsourcing are big issues in Ohio. Kerry is going to be a MESS. We need to get the message out.

[POA2]

I'm really worried about Ohio. I used to live there. My family still does. I constantly get gripes about Bush when I talk to my family. They seem to blame him and the Republican leadership of the state about how crappy the economy is there. Offshoring and outsourcing are big issues in Ohio. Kerry is going to be a MESS. We need to get the message out.

I agree with you - OH is very tight - The economy is by far the number one issue in OH -

The GWB team needs to start getting positive economy ads on the air in OH - Now!! - The premise on the economy needs to be set -

The people of OH are very patriotic and this will surly help GWB - But the economy really has been struggling there and gas prices are way up also -

If GWB wins OH and FL I can't see him losing - Kerry has to take one of these and OH looks to be a better shot for him then FL - (that is also why you see the media trying to spin OH for Kerry at every opportunity) -

[Tall_Texan]

Nice rally for the Prez. Look how Wisconsin and West Virginia have jumped over to Bush Country. And a few others who were under 40% have moved back into play. I would like to see better numbers from Pennsylvania, though.

[ET(end tyranny)]

I agree with you - OH is very tight - The economy is by far the number one issue in OH -

It's pretty big in Michigan, too.

[POA2]

It's pretty big in Michigan, too.

Agree - the economy is a big issue in MI as well (It is the biggest issue overall for the Country) -

However, the economy as a whole is going very strong - We just need to get the message out -

In OH and somewhat in MI the expansion and growth is not showing up yet (but it will!) -

Also, MI is a pro-Kerry State - It is a definite lean Kerry State - While OH is a State we must win!! -

[shempy]

I built what I thought was a cool excel spreadsheet I was dumping the data into for analysis.

Then I found this guy's interactive tradesports analysis. It is great. You can pick the margins whether to base the analysis on bid price ask price etc. Link is: http://geekmedia.org/tradesports/index.php?lowNeutrality=50&highNeutrality=50&neutralColor=&submit=change+options

[SolomoninSouthDakota]

"While OH is a State we must win!!"

Here I go again. With the way things are going in the upper Midwest, OH is not such a must win state. I'm beginning to think there is too much of an eastern establishment bias going on in Freeperland! And yes I know Ohio is not truly eastern, but for a guy like me out here its darn close enough.

I just asked my sister who live in Sioux County IA whether IA was going to get its EV votes to Bush this time. She insisted that they are. Sioux County had skulduggery last time around and Gore came up with a couple of thousand extra votes there alone if I remember right. Now they are highly motivated to see it righted this time. I predict IA and WI will go Bush country. I believe with reapportionment we can still win even if we lose NH as looks to be the case at this point. And if things stay on course we will have MN too. Of course, if things stay on the course they are now we will definitely take OH too. But we don't have to pin ALL of our hope on OH.

[POA2]

Here I go again. With the way things are going in the upper Midwest, OH is not such a must win state. I'm beginning to think there is too much of an eastern establishment bias going on in Freeperland! And yes I know Ohio is not truly eastern, but for a guy like me out here its darn close enough. I just asked my sister who live in Sioux County IA whether IA was going to get its EV votes to Bush this time. She insisted that they are. Sioux County had skulduggery last time around and Gore came up with a couple of thousand extra votes there alone if I remember right. Now they are highly motivated to see it righted this time. I predict IA and WI will go Bush country. I believe with reapportionment we can still win even if we lose NH as looks to be the case at this point. And if things stay on course we will have MN too. Of course, if things stay on the course they are now we will definitely take OH too. But we don't have to pin ALL of our hope on OH.

Lets see - MN going to GWB this year - I don't think that will happen - It was close in 2000 but Nader pulled a good size vote there - That won't happen this time - MN also has voted R since 1972! (that is 32 years!) -

Your notion that we will take IA and WI - Still those 2 don't make up for a loss in OH (if that was to happen) - So not a good trade-off -

New gallup poll puts Kerry up 5pts in IA - (BTW) -

I still say OH is key - (OH,FL and MO) - GWB takes those 3 Kerry is going to play hell winning -

[Optimist]

You don't know how anxiously I have been awaiting this weeks report.

It is everything I was expecting!!

With the near dirt nap Kerry took from the SBV's, if I didnt see an uptick, I would have been very dubious of this tracking method. But, I held the faith and look forward to a real blowout come November. (After all I am an optimist.... and DEFINITELY see a pattern.)