Posted on 08/30/2004 5:38:11 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon
Dubya almost carried MN in 2000.
The Minnesota Democrat Party is self-destructing, and interest groups that have been an important part of the coalition (like the rural blue collar union membership) are been really pissed off at the urban liberal leadership this year.
(The GOP controls the House and the governor's office. The DFL barely controls the Senate. The Senate isn't up for reelection this year, so the leadership decided to dig in their heels and resist the GOP agenda.
As a result of which absolutely nothing happened in the legislature this year. That is to say we closed the session without a bonding bill.
Which means no pork to the DFL constituencies.
It's going to be close, but I'd guess that Bush has a >50% chance of carrying the state.
Glad to hear you feel GWB has a 50% shot at MN this year - Last year I was thinking the same thing - But it doesn't appear in the polls that GWB has ever had the lead in MN once this year - I find that telling -
Also the only reason 2000 was close in MN (for the most part) was because Nader pulled so well -(didn't he get 5%??) - Nader won't get more then 2% tops this year -
Ohio always gets screwed with regards to jobs and it has nothing to do with W. It seems like when a nationwide company with one of its 9 plants in Ohio closes a plant, its the one in Ohio that closes.
That said, I think W will win Ohio, by about 2 pts.
The Dem mayor of Saint Paul endorsed Bush, as well.
Get a new family [grin].
I live here. It's close.
Jobs is one issue...but unemployment is not that high. About 6% last I checked. That means employment is at 94%. Reagan won a landslide in Ohio with about a 7.1% ue rate.
Also, Social conservatism is big in this state....there should be some consolation in that. Except for the Columbus/Cleveland corridor this is a mix of conservative Catholic and conservative Bible Belt.
Emphasize the positive, emphasize the social issues, emphasize patriotism, and organize. Those things will carry Ohio.
I think Bush will take NH. Most of the polling going there are by two overwhelmingly Dem friendly polls, Zogby and ARG. There aren't any recent polls not by either of these guys, so it's hard to know what's going on there, but I think NH will be much easier to win than say PA, so given Bush is polling as a toss-up in PA, it's likely he's ahead in NH.
| Date | Prob. Bush Win | Mean EVs | Std. Dev. |
| 01/21 | 96.8% | 341.5 | 41.1 |
| 01/26 | 95.5% | 334.8 | 40.6 |
| 02/02 | 92.2% | 323.8 | 39.7 |
| 02/09 | 83.0% | 307.8 | 40.3 |
| 02/16 | 78.4% | 300.4 | 39.4 |
| 02/23 | 76.2% | 298.2 | 39.6 |
| 03/01 | 74.5% | 295.9 | 39.3 |
| 03/08 | 68.0% | 289.2 | 39.8 |
| 03/15 | 68.0% | 288.8 | 39.0 |
| 03/22 | 68.5% | 289.3 | 38.8 |
| 03/29 | 69.4% | 290.1 | 38.8 |
| 04/05 | 71.2% | 292.3 | 39.1 |
| 04/12 | 70.4% | 290.6 | 38.1 |
| 04/19 | 68.6% | 288.1 | 36.7 |
| 04/26 | 64.9% | 284.5 | 36.3 |
| 05/03 | 66.3% | 285.7 | 36.3 |
| 05/10 | 65.6% | 285.3 | 36.8 |
| 05/17 | 65.2% | 284.8 | 36.6 |
| 05/24 | 60.0% | 280.3 | 36.9 |
| 05/31 | 61.1% | 281.2 | 36.8 |
| 06/07 | 60.5% | 280.6 | 36.5 |
| 06/14 | 65.0% | 285.0 | 36.6 |
| 06/21 | 63.9% | 284.0 | 36.8 |
| 06/28 | 58.4% | 278.8 | 36.7 |
| 07/05 | 58.7% | 279.1 | 36.7 |
| 07/12 | 53.1% | 274.2 | 36.5 |
| 07/19 | 48.2% | 269.8 | 35.7 |
| 07/26 | 43.4% | 265.6 | 35.0 |
| 08/02 | 42.1% | 264.3 | 34.7 |
| 08/09 | 42.9% | 265.2 | 34.5 |
| 08/16 | 42.6% | 264.9 | 34.2 |
| 08/23 | 41.8% | 264.3 | 34.5 |
| 08/30 | 56.1% | 276.4 | 35.0 |
Thanks jdege!
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