[MOgirl]

Hello, Get out! REALLY?? We all thought that the internal polling had to be dismal, and their latest reactions show that we were right!

Glad to be here, MOgirl

[puroresu]

I think it was Carl Cameron today on FOX who said Kerry is using tactics that worked for him in past elections in Massachusetts. But Cameron then noted that Massachusetts is an atypical state that is far more liberal than most of the country. Kerry's tactic of whining and hiding behind surrogates may play well in Brookline or Amherst, but in Middle America it just makes him look like a sissy!

[gswilder]

When history is written about this election, I think we will see things differenly. Bush bottomed out in mid-June from what I can tell. He stabilized and started a slight upward trend until mid-Aug. Kerry didn't get much of a bump from Edwards or the DNC. That was a VERY telling sign that the media and Kerry tried to explain away. Now the SBV thing seems to have gained traction. Polls always lag events, especially the state ones. All of us here, read the "real news" every day and stay up to day. For many Americans, they are getting the real news 2nd or 3rd hand. From coworkers and family. So for may, it may take 3-3 days for the news to get to them. Then another few days to impact their thinking. Then it may be another week before the next poll catches this trend. We saw this a little after the DNC. Right after Kerry didn't get a bump. Then 7-10 days later, you saw several polls that showed him moving up 2-4 points.

And there is still so much more for Bush to go after Kerry about. So far, they have barely scratched the surface of his years in congress. Of course the post-VN antiwar stuff is a possibility, but I think Bush will lay off this directly. The RNC hasn't happend yet, which WILL show a bump for Bush. Then their is the debates. Unless Bush makes a majore stupid blunder, he should win fairly easily. And I suspect the odds of Kerry making a debate blunder or doing bad, much higher. I know the folks at DU think Kerry/Edwards are going to crush Bush/Cheney in the debates. But that is probably NOT going to happen. And I am being objective here. Bush is no great talker, but he has a vision, and has integrity. Most people know that even if they don't agree with him politically.

I have been posting for about 6-7 weeks now, that I think Bush will win fairly easy in the end. I suspect a margin of 3-4% nationally and 100+ EVs.

What will be sad it to see how Kerry and the MSM explain away his loss on Nov 3rd. They will blame it on Bush and the SBV smear tactices. But a win is a win. We will know by mid-sept pretty confidently how this is going to end up. I still say Bush wins, and my confidence is growing each day.