And there is still so much more for Bush to go after Kerry about. So far, they have barely scratched the surface of his years in congress. Of course the post-VN antiwar stuff is a possibility, but I think Bush will lay off this directly. The RNC hasn't happend yet, which WILL show a bump for Bush. Then their is the debates. Unless Bush makes a majore stupid blunder, he should win fairly easily. And I suspect the odds of Kerry making a debate blunder or doing bad, much higher. I know the folks at DU think Kerry/Edwards are going to crush Bush/Cheney in the debates. But that is probably NOT going to happen. And I am being objective here. Bush is no great talker, but he has a vision, and has integrity. Most people know that even if they don't agree with him politically.
I have been posting for about 6-7 weeks now, that I think Bush will win fairly easy in the end. I suspect a margin of 3-4% nationally and 100+ EVs.
What will be sad it to see how Kerry and the MSM explain away his loss on Nov 3rd. They will blame it on Bush and the SBV smear tactices. But a win is a win. We will know by mid-sept pretty confidently how this is going to end up. I still say Bush wins, and my confidence is growing each day.
I saw posted on another thread the partisan breakdown. It was 39% Dem, 32% Repub, and 29% Indy. I don't know if that's accurate.
I think your analysis is fairly accurate.
I would like to stipulate that while I'm suspicious of polls due to the agenda of the ones conducting the ones, I do lend credence to the bahavior of candidates.
Anyone that has paid attention the last few months to their reactions cannot miss G.W. is appearing far more self assured than he did earlier in the year during the sustained WMD/Abu Grabib hits. Meanwhile Kerry has slowly started to disintegrate, with the Swiftees speeding the process of his meltdown. It is entirely possible MSM may hype the numbers to diminish a bump but that alone would not explain Kerry's behavior, completely irrational unless he is sinking fast.
I've always felt G.W.'s strategy was to build to the election, rather than build a large lead and watch it disintegrate at end. For the most part he has stayed close and let the "leader" exhaust most of his strength.
I still think this election, barring the unknown, is going to break for one candidate or another rather than end up close. My cautious hope is G.W. is the recipient of vote approval.