Posted on 08/25/2004 7:14:55 PM PDT by RWR8189
Political Wire got an advance look at the new Los Angeles Times poll showing President Bush "moving slightly" ahead of Sen. John Kerry "for the first time this year." Bush had the support of 49% of registered voters, compared to 46% for Kerry.
The newspaper's analysis indicates Kerry "has been nicked by attacks on his service in Vietnam."
The "small shift" from last month's poll "is within the poll's margin of error. But it fits with other findings in the Times Poll showing the electorate edging toward Bush over the past month on a broad range of measures, from support for his handling of Iraq to confidence in his leadership and honesty."
Independent voters split evenly, but Bush's "tentative new advantage" seems to be "his greater success at onsolidating his base. While just 3% of voters who call themselves Republicans say they will vote for Kerry, Bush is drawing 15% just over one-seventh of all Democrats, and fully one-fifth 20% of Democrats who consider themselves moderate or conservative, the poll found."
"Let me be the first to say, "this poll is a piece of crap from a worthless rag"."
Carl Rove said tonight that GWB is down a couple of points. He emphasized that GWB's approval rating is at or above 50%, which is good. The crew on Fox generally agreed that GWB is behind.
Who knows? It's still good that the trend is up. I believe Kerry started to hit a ceiling about 10 days before his convention.
No one knows anything about him or his policies, except for his Vietnam experience, which few people give much weight to.
OK, I get your point and I agree. A properly conducted poll should have shown GW ahead by 5-10 points all along. In the absence of media bias, that would have been 10-15 points. I can go with that.
Like several other Freepers, I still mainTAIN that Bush will take 58 percent of the popular vote in November.
Sorry about the typo in the previous post.
"Check out Drudge! Kerry now wants a CRIMINAL INVESTIGATION into Bush and the SwiftVets!"
As Kerry is a member of the Senate, I will be contacting him to insist that he demand for Bush's IMPEACHMENT. (What did Bush know and when did he know it?) I think it would be good political stratergery for Kerry as well to add to his list of 7 earlier bills that he has previously brought to the floor of the Senate in his long political career.
You do realize that Bush's numbers started going back up as soon as Alan Keyes entered the Illinois senate race?...
Wow, that is huge-- not even "likely", its 'registered."
Good, maybe Americans get it. If we are the country I think we are, we'll send Kerry a clear message in November-- Treason isn't Free.
BTTT
This was registered voters? OMG. Kerry is finished.
Well, a majority (close to 40% IIRC) of Oklahoma democrats preferred Bush in a straw poll taken before the July primaries, so this may not mean much, but John Edwards was in OKC tonight and they just reported that "about 100" people showed up! This wasn't some fancy $5K/plate dinner that people can't afford...just a hotel banquet room not even half full, so they need to tie a porkchop around his neck pretty quick.
If these kinds of numbers stick, we win. Period.
No wonder the Kerry camp has gone ballistic, throwing everything they've got at Bush and generally acting like psychopaths every time they get in front of a TV camera. Their own internal polling must have been showing them Kerry's collapsing numbers for the last week and a half.
The best part is, the RNC is next week, which will only give Bush even more of a bounce. Even a few extra points will make it impossible for Kerry to win, if we can sustain it for two months.
i said that too. I agree with you, but at the same time Kerry is looking really desparate and the media is spinning like never before for him. All good signs.
P Dog. Ya really GOT it.
I saw read the article, but I need the three-way splits for Bush, Kerry and Nader to figure out the weightings, unless the LA Times will release a PDF with the questions and raw data like Survey USA does with their polls.
There is partial data given, but just enough to write about, not enough to deduce the demographic splits...
Thank you again for all the Gallup Poll data, if you have a chance and the willingness sometime, I would like to get the raw Gallup 3-way splits for Bush/Kerry/Nader/Other for all of the Gallup polls from say March of this year onwards. I consider the Gallup to one of the more accurate and unbiased polls and would like to track their splits for the national electorate to compare to other polling organizations over the same time period.
Again, only if you have the time and it is not too much trouble. Otherwise I would feel guilty in asking...
About the LA Times poll, the poll director 'Susan Pinkus' does not seem to publish enough data to back-check the LA Times methodology until the LA Time stories that are written about the poll results/data are old news...
Thanks again,
dvwjr
I think it was Carl Cameron today on FOX who said Kerry is using tactics that worked for him in past elections in Massachusetts. But Cameron then noted that Massachusetts is an atypical state that is far more liberal than most of the country. Kerry's tactic of whining and hiding behind surrogates may play well in Brookline or Amherst, but in Middle America it just makes him look like a sissy!
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