Vanity Post: Is it time to panic?

Election Projection 2004 ^

[RedStateWarrior]

I'm a hard numbers kind of guy. I follow the state polls every evening after I get home from work, and there's a disturbing trend developing right now: most projections give Kerry a pretty good position in the electoral college.

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Here are a few sites of electoral projections:

http://www.electoral-vote.com

http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

http://www.federalreview.com/

http://www.spacerad.com/electoral/

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html

http://www.race2004.net/

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There are a handful of states that I'm really concerned about. Bush should NOT be worrying about these states!!! Bush should be waltzing through these and focusing on Ohio and Florida!

Nevada: Rasmussen's latest poll gives Bush a 1% lead. What's less-often reported is how many California liberals are relocating to Nevada to work and even sometimes vote there.

Colorado: Survey USA has both candidates tied at 47%. Could this be affected by reverse coattails?

Missouri: I'd always thought that MO was getting more conservative, but the latest Zogby has Bush down by 1%. I know, I know.. Zogby (yuck!), but I've seen other polls with this race close.

Tennesse: Again, how? Bush leads 48-46 in the latest Survey USA poll. That Frenchie is doing better than the Gorebot did in 2000!

Virginia: Bush holds a 3% lead here. I have faith in this state. My brother lives there outside of DC, and he says "no way" to it going Kerry. They're trying to appeal to vets, but with no good results. Still, 3% is a bit close for my comfort.

North Carolina: Sure, the Breck Girl is on the ticket, but this state was a landslide for Bush in 2000. Now it's statistically tied.

Then there are the swing states..

Ohio: I really began to worry when I saw today's Gallup numbers. Kerry has a 10% lead among registered voters, and 2% among likelies. Bush can't afford to lose this one.

Florida: the latest 3 polls have Bush trailing by an average of 6%. That's scary. I can't see us winning without Florida, unless we pull a hat trick and take Iowa/Minnesota/Wisconsin in return.

New Hampshire: Yeah, don't laugh.. 4EVs. But the election might be that close, and it looks like Kerry has a consistent 4 or 5% lead here.

What also bothers me is that undecideds almost always break by about 60 to 70% with the challenger. I see Bush on TV all the time, making his case (he's gotten quite good at it lately), but those damn TV goons always seem to twist things around on him. {And you know that the media are gonna have a field day with the 1000th GI death. Sickos.} I know that our convention is coming soon, and that we should get some bounce from it, but am I being a worrywart?

[TJC]

SKeeerrry should be up by more. We are at a point that is after the rat (infested) convention and before the republican convention. If these numbers hold AFTER the Republican convention, then you can start to worry. There is a lot of things to happen still. The three debates will be important.

[Cold Heat]

What the heck good does panic do?

Kerry is a loser candidate. He is a banana that will turn black and mushy by October.

Even the democrats see the handwriting on the wall.

All this Dewey wins crap is getting on my nerves. Buck up!

[Poohbah]

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182250ZAUG2004

FM FREERAD CHEYENNE MTN AFS CO
TO ALZOT

T O P S E C R E T VIKINGKITTEN

BT

SUBJ/FREERAD CYBERSPACE ALERT//
RMKS/1. MULTIPLE LAUNCHES DETECTED FROM DEMOCRAT UNDERGROUND, TARGETED ON FREE REPUBLIC.
2. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH RPT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. FREERAD IS DECLARING A CYBERSPACE DEFENSE EMERGENCY AND ORDERING A FULL PACKET STOP.
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5. A MOOSE BIT MY SISTER ONCE AND STUNED HER BEEBER.
6. EAST WIND RAIN.
7. VALHALLA I AM COMING!
8. ALL YOUR BASE ARE BELONG TO US NOW!
9. THE MATADOR! THE MATADOR!//

BT



NNNN

[Arkinsaw]

I have been very cautious. There is a lot of wishful thinking going on here on FR about this election.

BUT...I think its a fairly safe bet that no state in the South outside of Florida that has a chance of giving their electoral votes to a Massachusetts liberal no matter what the polls say.

As for the others, we are essentially tied up and have not even had our convention yet. There is no guaranteed bump out of the convention, but even a minor bump will be huge in this election.

This is a weird election year of course, but it is pretty good to be this close between conventions.

The big fear is that something will occur, like in Spain, that will throw the election off at the last minute. You can bet that the Democrats have something in the bottom of their bag of tricks for just the right moment.

Let's see what it looks like after our convention and then we can decide whether to get freaked out or not.

[LS]

Survey USA has Bush up in Nevada by 3; tied or up in WI (a Gore state); down by only 5 in PA (a Gore state) and 2 in MN (according to one recent poll); Bush is tied in NM (a Gore state); Bush up by a couple in one, down by 1 in another (another Gore state); Bush is up in OH, FL, MO, AR, AZ NC---all of these Kerry hoped to break through, and is down to campaigning in just OH and FL. In other words, Kerry can't show a solid lead in ANY state Bush took in 2000, yet he is in trouble in 5-6 Gore states.

Bush's Rasmussen "job approval" has not fallen below 50% in months (which is a sheer disconnect from Ras's general polling numbers). Gallup has Bush up nationally by 3 (which translates to about 290-300 EVs; and a new report says that DEM internatls in NJ show Bush within one!!!

EVERY, I repeat, EVERY "predictive model," including Ray Fair and Alan Lichtman---both of whom have about a 99% accuracy rate---have Bush winning handily. He is back up in the Iowa Electronic Markets. All this and the GOP convention hasn't even started, and Kerry has NEVER climbed above 49% in any poll (in most he's stuck at 45%)

Kerry will continue to implode. Bush will get between 300 and 330 EVs.

[NavySEAL F-16]

Did you also hear Paul Begala scream at Tucker Carlson his hideous comment? I don't think he's following your polls. Hugh Hewitt replayed it several times.

The libs have fallen off the fence and are certifiable.

[Mr Ramsbotham]

I'm more inclined to think that it's time for Democrats to panic. They've had their convention; haven't gotten the bounce they'd hoped for, and the Republicans have only just begun to fight.

[Indy Pendance]

Today's
Zot Threat Level
Is
BLEEDING HEART
LIBERAL

mash here...

[Nonstatist]

Gallup has Bush up by 2 and the Republicans havent had their convention yet. Sit down and relax, and have a Maalox.

[Poohbah]

"The woods are lovely, dark and deep..."

[mlbford2]

There are 20 other sites that have differing results. Those professors from Yale say it is going to be a landslide for Bush based on their numerical formula (that has been proven to be extremely reliable). Kerry did not get his bounce from the convention. There is still the RNC convention and the debates, plus any unforseen surprises. In my opinion, Bush by no means has this thing wraped up, but I would rather be in his shoes than Kerry's.

[rabidralph]

Yes, it's time to panic. Go hide under your bed. The rest of us will join you, shortly.

[ConservativeMan55]

Thanks! I wondered what level we were on!

[Riley]

Absolutely serious comment here- Hillary will never allow it. She'll run in 2008. If Kerry wins, she can't. She knows she'll have a much stronger position then than running this year against a Republican incumbent, particularly in wartime.

I have no doubt that the movers and shakers in the Dem party have resigned themselves to losing 2004 and have set their sights on 2008.

If a losing Kerry gets some kind of political kickback, a sweet committee appointment or something after the election, then he was in on it. If he gets nothing out of it, then he was just the convenient sacrificial lamb.

[Southflanknorthpawsis]

Is it time to panic?

About what?

[Sender]

My guess is that major events of all sorts, both good and bad, will happen and major revelations will come out before November that will cause all these poll numbers to be thrown out the window.

How many weeks have we been agonizing over a two or three point spread one way or the other? They are statistically a dead tie, hence the poll data tells us nothing more than that it will be a game indeed!

I promise not to panic until after November 2nd, and I fully expect to be celebrating that evening :)

[Jaguar1942]

The convention hasn't even happened yet, and what goes on outside the convention is going to be the one that gets people on our side.

Watch the fireworks.

It's not even September yet, the Clinton sabotage machine has barely gotten rolling, the Therasa factor hasn't yet kicked in, and the John Kerry Meltdown which will occur between the end of the convention and October will be the October surprise for everyone.

Keep the faith brother, the Democrats can't keep anything good alive for long these days. They have to destroy it.LOL

[Mike1973]

This guy really loves that spacerad website. This is the 3rd of 4th day in a row, that he has posted it.

[BonnieJ]

Polls are contrived to influence the vote. Look past the polls and find some real information. If you REALLY want Pres. Bush to win, start sharing your insight with anyone who will listen. However...adamant Kerry supporters are hopeless. They have all the info they want....He isn't Bush.

[Texas Eagle]

Here ya go. You may want to read this book.

http://www.powells.com/cgi-bin/biblio?inkey=62-0060927585-0"