Posted on 08/18/2004 7:12:05 AM PDT by veronica
The good news for the Bush campaign is that the incumbent has retaken the lead in the presidential contest in our most recent InsiderAdvantage poll. On the other hand, perhaps not so good news, as just a confirmation of its insignificance in this year's elections, is that there is no such thing as a "NASCAR dad."
The latest InsiderAdvantage survey of the presidential race asks: If the presidential election were held today, would you vote for?
George W. Bush, 46 percent; John Kerry, 43 percent; Ralph Nader, 1 percent; someone else, 2 percent; don't know/undecided -- 8 percent. The poll of 500 registered voters was conducted Aug. 13-14 and has been weighted by age, race, gender and party affiliation. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. It was conducted with our research associates, The Marketing Workshop.
(Excerpt) Read more at jacksonville.com ...
Well this good news. Juts wondering, has Anyone ever herad of this polling group before?
I am a little unclear. Is this the whole US or just FL? In either case, it is a bit of good news. Let's hope GWB keeps up the momentum.
Bad article, it's not clear of its a national or a Florida poll. I think its a national poll in which case a 500 registered voter survey is pretty useless.
Is anyone else as tired of polls as I am...national or state?
Either way, it is great news. In the end, I think FL narrowly stays in W's camp this year -- especially if Martinez is the Senate candidate.
I think the only nips and tucks are coming out of Kerry's poll numbers....
I just read the article and I think a poll pertaining to Florida, I mentioned the effects Jeb Bush had on the female vote, and mentioned the popularity of "NASCAR DADS"? (Floridian term) in the south,(Its a Jacksonville paper, which is in the north and it refers to racing in "the south") I thing it's a matter of syntax, possible colloquial presumpostition, and Ya know it's a poorly written article when you have to perform a hermenutical analysis, and textual over view to understand it.
The wheels are comiong off the Kerry campaign and he'll never right his sinking ship in the final months.
Prediction: BUSH LANDSLIDE, MEDIA DUMBFOUNDED.
I went to the the website and it seems that Matt Towery is the chairman and CEO of Insider Advantage.com. His site has done many polls during the last year and they have all been National Polls. Towery writes an article for the Florida Times- Union each Wednesday.
Here's a question: In the last number of presidential polls, have the Republicans ever done as poorly as the pools were saying they would, and have the Dems ever done as well? Strictly from my memory, what I seem to recall is that the Pubbies usually finish several points up from where they were roughly projected, and the Dems several down...
In the last number of presidential polls Whoops, that should be 'presidential elections...'
Interesting point. I think in some elections we have seen Republicans doing better than expected, or better than had been projected in summer. In '76 President Ford nearly overcame a 30-plus point deficit and lost to Carter by only 2.
In '88 VP Bush came from way behind to win, though at one point he was even further ahead of Dukakis according to one poll, then his 7 point winning margin.
As president, Bush was as much as 24 points behind Clinton in '92 but lost by only 6. And in '96 as I recall one poll had Bob Dole down by 15, and he lost by only 8.
Granted this is not a great record. But by contrast, GWB does not have as much ground to make up. If he can outshine Kerry in those debates, he can still win.
In all but one case, the RATs performed worse on election day than their post-convention numbers. The average loss was about seven points. The lone exception was AlGore last time who improved on his Gallup number by 1 whole point.
I really feel that we are now seeing JFnK's high-water mark. If he still holds a slight lead after the GOP convention, and after the 9/11 anniversary, then I'll be very worried. History, however, suggests that he is likely to see quite a bit of his support erode before election day.
Get your heads out of the sand people!!!! Sorry just channeling Courage there for a second
In 2000, five were off in Bush's favor (by 1-3%) and six were off in Gore's favor (by the same variance).
In 2002, virtually all the polls missed the close elections in Missouri, Minnesota, and Georgia, plus, I think, Sunnun's gubernatorial victory. All were off in favor of the Dems.
Florida poll...I think
Did you see this poll. Is it a FL statewide poll or a North Florida poll?
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