Charley's Force Took Experts by Surprise (NOAA Covering It's Behind...)

AP ^ | 08/14/2004 | SnapperJK

[snapperjk]

Aug 14, 6:41 PM (ET)

By MARCIA DUNN

Hurricane Charley's 145-mph force took forecasters by surprise and showed just how shaky a science it still is to predict a storm's intensity - even with all the latest satellite and radar technology.

"Most major hurricanes become major by going through a rapid intensification. This is the Number 1 area to research. I think that there is the perception out there because of the satellite photos and aircraft data, people do have faith in the technology and sometimes that faith is too much," Max Mayfield, National Hurricane Center director, told reporters Saturday in Miami, 24 hours after Charley slammed into Florida's western coast.

"A lot of people think we can give them a near perfect forecast. We know we can't give them a near perfect forecast."

[Strategerist]

The fact is...the folks down at NHC eat, breathe, and live this stuff. You won't find a more fiercely dedicated bunch of people. Believe me, you don't want anyone else doing that job.

Witness the fact the largest private NWS "competitor" (AccuWeather) had their forecast landfall TWICE as far away from Port Charlotte as NHC did...Cedar Key.

[snapperjk]

Thanks. I'm glad that you weighed in.

"Better then a whole armed forces be ready for defense, then just one branch.. SnapperJK"

[lightman]

Well, I for one thank you for all that you do. Two weeks ago I was out on a high ridge in midstate PA looking for funnel clouds because even in this day of advanced Doppler radar you still need your Skywarn ground spotters.

Folks, you can't beat up on NOAA if you don't take the time to read all of the text of the hurricane advisories and read the full legend of the NHS graphics. Yes, there is a thing black line on the graphics, but everything within that white shaded area could be storm track. Charley proved that out nicely in the mid Atlantic. His present track is much east of the "black line" of yesterday but still well within the white area. The text advisories always stress that the winds, whether t.s. or hurricane extend beaucoup miles from the actual center.

As old Ben Franklin said, "some men are weather-wise but most are otherwise."

[Amelia]

NOAA needs a geography lesson. It went straight NE and sliced through the state, through Orlando and exited in Daytona Beach! Daytona Beach is on the west coast of Florida? ...Please!..

You obviously haven't been paying attention.

Charley was forecast to go across Florida and exit on the Atlantic ocean side for a couple of days before landfall. I live on the coast of Georgia, and I've been watching it for just that reason - the first predictions showed it passing right over my house. (I also figured that the Sanibel area was going to be hit all along.)

[Sam Cree]

Yo, Texans:

There's a storm brewing out there by the name of Earl. It's headed for the general direction of Texias (take a look). I advise you to keep your eyes on it and get ready to bug out. Even if that means bugging out at the last minute.
You've been warned. Now step to it.

[walford]

If you browse this thread, you'll find that a majority of people understand that your collegues are not expected to be perfect. See post #23.

[txhurl]

Nah. We have hurricane parties.

Tornado warnings we listen to.

[Texas Eagle]

Amen. Pipples in Louisiana, Alabammy and Mississippi should also keep a wary eye on Earl.

[Exit148]

To your #18 ---- The track was up the West coast with a turn expected to cross the state. The storm simply made its turn further South, rather than in the Tampa area.

Years ago DH and I took a weather forecasting course with the Power Squadron. We sailed at that time. I began to respect what was involved in this whole weather subject. You can have constant wind and temperature conditions on a flat area, but you put one tree in the middle, and all things change.

[DouglasKC]

I think this whole thing is a media manufactured movement to get the Bush brothers. First they kept it kind of hush hush nationally focusing on other things. Then when it hits Florida the media leads the charge of "what happened". No doubt they'll blame the NOAA "problems" on Bush and call for some kind of big hearing.

Pathetic.

[snapperjk]

I agree.

[mesoman7]

My pleasure. Actually, it's OK to beat up on us from time to time. It keeps us on our toes. When you don't hear feedback, one tends to get lax. When I was an Air Force forecaster instructor, I used to tell my students; "If you are looking for a job where you will get a pat on the back...then there is the door."

We do this job because we love it. When we miss a forecast, we are our harshest critics.

The NHC forecaster in the article was being brutally honest, probably out of frustration. Unfortunately, he may get spanked for that by our higher-ups. The media always seems to get that "off the cuff" comment right. I know. I have been spanked for being brutally honest in a media interview. Of course, they screwed up the rest of my comments...making me sound like a blathering fool. Kind of makes you wonder how bad they mangle the really important stories.

[Sam Cree]

Tell you the truth, I'm damn scared of hurricanes, at least the big ones, after having weathered Andrew from south Dade.

As a South Floridian, I feel a sense of relief every hurricane season we get through unscathed. This season seems especially ferocious, and started 2 weeks early, according to the way I see it. I'll be glad when things calm down in a few weeks, which I hope they do.

[commish]

With so much media focus on Tampa and St. Petersburg, many residents in and around Punta Gorda were caught unprepared.

TO me this is the most telling line of the whole article. Once NHC mentioned "Tampa". It didn't matter what else they said. The Media was on that like a Pit Bull on a bone.

From that point on it was nothing but Tampa Tampa Tampa. These people didn;t hear anything NOAA and the NHC put out because all the talking heads could say was Tampa Tampa Tampa

[Cloud William]

Ah, the state where people can't figure out how to vote with paper ballots. Well, a bunch of 'em obviously need to get on over to the Cracker Barrel gift shop and pick up a new FLORIDA WEATHER GAUGE. I'm sure y'all have seen it.. it's a hunk of rope that's attached to a small piece of wood, which is to be affixed to a tree or some handy outdoor surface.

The instructions read:

"Hang outside and Check Daily.
- If the Rope is Dry - Fair.
- Rope Wet - Raining.
- Rope Moving - Windy.
- Rope Moving Rapidly - Tornado.
- Rope Gone - Hurricane."

[mesoman7]

Actually, that is true. Most people to like us. Whenever we try to close an office, there is a huge protest (Don't take away OUR punching bag!).

A few years ago there was a survey on the popularity of federal agencies. The NWS ranked #2, right behind the military. Lucky me! I belong to both #1 and #2.

In the same survey, Congress ranked dead last. Imagine that...

[Patton@Bastogne]

.


Felis_irritable,

BTW, my mother-in-law has a winter place close to Ft. Myers. She thinks it's OK, I think she's in denial. We'll find out in a day or two.


I live in the Tampa-St. Pete area. Yes, it's true that Tampa was the media's focus for three days straight ...

BUT ... EVERY televised Hurricane Charley forecast showed a pretty wide "probable target zone" that extended at least 100 hundred miles EITHER SIDE on the "straight path" to Tampa.


The poor folks (some deceased) in Sanibel, Captiva, Fort Meyers, and points north simply have no excuse for getting caught in the storm. They were just plain IDIOTS.


Previous hurricanes have taught "real" Floridans (as opposed to DAMNED transplanted Chicago and New York liberal Yankees) that hurricanes are quite unpredictable.


"Real Floridians" know how to vote at a ballot box (even if they're democrats), don't call this state "FLA-RAH-DAH", and RESPECT alligators, sharks, and hurricanes.



The "trailer park" town that was wiped out ?

Average age is 70 years old. That says it all. Just a bunch of stupid elderly AARP medicade-junkies living in flimsey house trailers, driving and killing younger folks and familis off the highways during the rest of the year.


BTW. Your mother-in-law's house ? It's history ... Maybe she'll do us all a favor and Stay-Up-North ...


Patton@Bastogne


.

[Texas Eagle]

I don't blame you. I experienced only one hurricane and that was over 35 years ago. Hurricane Celia hit Corpus Christi on Aug. 8, 1969. I wouldn't want to go through another one.

Of course now I live in California so I don't have to worry about hurricanes. All I have to worry about it earthquakes, floods, wildfires and riots.

[Sam Cree]

That earthquake thing strikes me as potentially even more damaging and dangerous than hurricanes, although I am fairly ignorant on the subject.

[snapperjk]

Amen.

"My one hundred missions are over
I'll resume the life that I led
My wife thinks that it's rather silly
To stack up sandbags 'round our bed"
...Air Force/Author Unknown