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Rasmussen, Kerry bump erodes, Kerry 47 Bush 46
http://www.rasmussenreports.com ^ | August 14, 2004 | Owen

Posted on 08/14/2004 8:56:28 AM PDT by Owen

Kerry's bump of recent days scrolls off and reveals itself again to be random MOE noise.


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; kerrybump; polls; rasmussen
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And we're back to tied. Disquieting that Bush never seems to have a 3-4 pt lead in this poll's noise.
1 posted on 08/14/2004 8:56:28 AM PDT by Owen
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To: Owen

W's ahead in Gallup. Rasmussen is crap.


2 posted on 08/14/2004 9:00:31 AM PDT by RockinRight (Liberalism IS the status quo)
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To: Owen
And we're back to tied. Disquieting that Bush never seems to have a 3-4 pt lead in this poll's noise.

It bothers me that President Bush can't seem to pull ahead in any of these polls against a weak candidate like Kerry. Are voters blind or is this the liberal press trying to keep sKerry in the game. Maybe its a little of both? I hope and pray the GOP convention give Bush the bump he needs to finally pull away from Kerry.

3 posted on 08/14/2004 9:02:12 AM PDT by teletech (Friends don't let friends vote DemocRAT!)
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To: Owen

Bush job approval has been 50% or above all month


4 posted on 08/14/2004 9:03:38 AM PDT by gilliam
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To: Owen

Is anyone as sick of these Rasmussen polls as I am? I would love to not see another one posted until the day after the general election.


5 posted on 08/14/2004 9:05:30 AM PDT by ChocChipCookie (Born conservative. Born again by the grace of God.)
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To: Owen

Yes, we're tied. But even though the Bush team says no bounce from the convention I suspect there is some hope. I am guardedly optimistic.


6 posted on 08/14/2004 9:06:23 AM PDT by BunnySlippers (Must get moose and squirrel ... B. Badanov)
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To: gilliam

The Fox poll had him at 44% this week. I don't see how that can possibly be accurate.


7 posted on 08/14/2004 9:06:27 AM PDT by ShandaLear (The Kerry/Edwards Plan for Prosperity: Marry Well & Sue the Rich)
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To: ChocChipCookie
Is anyone as sick of these Rasmussen polls as I am? I would love to not see another one posted until the day after the general election.

Yes. Especially since he had no clue what was going on in 2000.

8 posted on 08/14/2004 9:07:00 AM PDT by IrishGOP
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To: Owen

W is a marathon runner; he doesn't sprint ahead and use his energy unwisely. Wait until after the convention, 9/11 anniversary and the "sprint to the finish" the end of October.

Have faith!


9 posted on 08/14/2004 9:07:49 AM PDT by Warriormom
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To: teletech

I know the Dims are wondering why Kerry didn't pull ahead during the convention. He is their Great White Hope. Let's wait til after the GOP convention ... and the debates. that's really a more accurate picture.


10 posted on 08/14/2004 9:09:12 AM PDT by BunnySlippers (Must get moose and squirrel ... B. Badanov)
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To: Owen

Yes, but the way I see it, Kerry is the one who should be worrying. With the anti-Bush book firestorm this year and all the negatively spun press against Bush, Kerry is STILL not getting traction. I think Bush is sitting pretty good, pre-convention. We'll see.


11 posted on 08/14/2004 9:10:52 AM PDT by h53pilot
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Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: Owen

Bump? What bump?


13 posted on 08/14/2004 9:12:09 AM PDT by upchuck (Well, if I called the wrong number, why did you answer the phone?)
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To: gilliam
My suspicion is that the media is buoying the Kerry candidacy, and that mad cash from the likes of the 527's and the George Soro ilk of the world is really going the extra mile. I must say, though, that I think this false accelerator, if you will, will only take them so far.

One cannot make a silk purse out of a sows ear. Kerry is way above his element, and that will soon take a heavy toll on his race. Patience, diligence and hard work will bring this on in for us. There is no other option.

14 posted on 08/14/2004 9:12:09 AM PDT by tenthirteen
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To: ShandaLear

That poll is old news. Not only that that sample more Dems to Republicans. Someone had the details of that poll and posted it 2 weeks ago. These pundits who always say Bush is in trouble never mention the fact that these polls are always biased towards democrats. They base all their "knowledge" on croocked polls.


15 posted on 08/14/2004 9:17:17 AM PDT by slowhand520
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To: Owen

I dread looking at the Rasmussen poll because it seems to always be one step ahead and two steps back for GWB, with Lurch getting maddeningly undeserved updrafts for the flimsiest of reasons. Yet I can't help going back in the faint hope that at least once I might be rewarded with something encouraging like, say Bush 54%, Kerry 46%. But no, it's always something that makes you really wonder if GWB can win this thing.


16 posted on 08/14/2004 9:18:05 AM PDT by omniscient
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Comment #17 Removed by Moderator

To: Owen

The thing to remember about Rasmussen is that he does admit that he tries to keep his average so it is exactly 39% dem and 35% GOP. Happy DU people were predicting that Kerry would get about 50 after the convention. Hasn't happened. What I am basically looking at right now in the daily Rasmussen poll is not Bush's numbers, but Kerry's numbers. If Kerry drops below 47, I think he's in trouble.

Since the convention Kerry has been at 48 or 49 almost the whole time. He's only been at 47 a few times, including today. Even when Bush had a real good day and got up to 48 for a couple of days, Kerry remained at 47. If Kerry does drop to 46 or below, then Bush has the chance to really deliver a knock out blow at the RNC that might put this thing away.


18 posted on 08/14/2004 9:28:01 AM PDT by Nascardude
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To: Owen
Yesterday I predicted this based on my raw data calculations... "Based on raw data I would expect Kerry's number to slip tomorrow as well, as one more strong polling day drops off. I'd expect Bush to remain at about 46-47%." Based on today's numbers it looks like Kerry's three day raw data is now 47-46-47. Bush's is 46-47-46. I'd say tomorrow looks like there will be little to no change from today as one of them would need to poll at 51% or better or 42% or lower to cause a point shift to 48 or 45. Having said all that, my confidence level in my raw data is somewhere around 50% and that's no better than a coin toss. But it keeps me entertained.
19 posted on 08/14/2004 9:29:42 AM PDT by Rokke
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To: Owen
look, this is wonderful news. GWB survived an atrocious June/July, where it seemed that nothing happened for him that was good. and kerry's convention was not only a strategic blunder, by emphasizing his controversial role in a controversial war, but it was also the opinion polling equivalent of a dry orgasm; lot's of noise, but nothing really happened.

we should be encouraged that our guy is still on his feet. the GOP knows how to put on a show; I expect the RNC convention to stake GWB to a lead that he won't relinquish all the way to the election.

20 posted on 08/14/2004 9:29:51 AM PDT by smonk
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