The thing to remember about Rasmussen is that he does admit that he tries to keep his average so it is exactly 39% dem and 35% GOP. Happy DU people were predicting that Kerry would get about 50 after the convention. Hasn't happened. What I am basically looking at right now in the daily Rasmussen poll is not Bush's numbers, but Kerry's numbers. If Kerry drops below 47, I think he's in trouble.
Since the convention Kerry has been at 48 or 49 almost the whole time. He's only been at 47 a few times, including today. Even when Bush had a real good day and got up to 48 for a couple of days, Kerry remained at 47. If Kerry does drop to 46 or below, then Bush has the chance to really deliver a knock out blow at the RNC that might put this thing away.
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The thing to remember about Rasmussen is that he does admit that he tries to keep his average so it is exactly 39% dem and 35% GOP.
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Is this indeed Rasmussen's turnout model? I had not heard this. On what is it based?