From his lips........
""If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong."
This is a very telling statement.
Sounds like a 'call to arms' to me.
**Fair told Deborah Solomon, "My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5% of the two-party votes ... the chances that Bush loses are very small."**
From this guy's lips to God's ears!
No -- get out the GOP vote! We have work to do!
"who claims to be a Kerry supporter"
He'd better, if he wants to keep his job...
As I've been predicting...
I certainly hope he is right, but I read somewhere that his model also predicted that Bush I would win in 1992.
I take nothing for granted! All Bush supporters still must go and vote. I want to see a landslide destroying the liberals for years to come. If Kerry is the best they have to offer it's possible.
If economics were the deciding factor in elections in 21st century America, this would be true. But it isn't. If it were, Gore would be President. The recession had barely begun during late 2000, and economically things were fantastic.
Values are the most important part of American politics. It's the reason the undecideds are such a minuscule part of the electorate, and why the supporters for both candidates are so immovable. 50% of America sees itself reflected in one candidate, and 50% of America sees itself in the other candidate. Abortion, gays, guns, God in the public square, the war - these are the issues that will drive a huge percentage of voters to the polls. The economy figures in prominently, of course, but not nearly at the rate it used to.
Greenspan is trying along with the Arabs to sabotage Bush.
Twice they raised rates now before an election and they did not do that for years.
Arabs are allowing the raising of oil prices right now!!!!
I don't think they will succeed, but they are sure trying.
You never know -- one should not be complacent. It ain't over till the fat lady sings, etc. etc.
I took a class from Fair, I don't put too much stake in what he says here.
There are 2 flaws to his method.
1) He uses only economic data to the exclusion of everything else. This is understandable given his bias as an economist, but elections don't only hinge on economics.
2) He uses actual economic data, when often elections are determined by public perception of the economy. Which generally trails reality by quite a few months. This is why Fair's method predicted that GHWB would beat Clinton. Because although the economy had turned around before Nov 1992, the public didn't recognize the improvement til after.
The only poll that matters is the vote on election day. Forget all the rest.
Flashback to Fair's prediction in 2000...
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/money/quin141.shtml
Goofy post-mortem analysis.
No matter what happens in the next election, there will be somebody with a completely different theory that is also fantastically accurate, until the election after that.
Every war time president has been re-elected.
No Democrat has been elected President in recent history unless they were a Governor from the south.
No Democrat has won the white house without carrying the south. Ask Gore about that one. If he had won his OWN home state, or Clintons for that matter.
No challenger has won without at least and 8 point gallup bounce ofter their convention. Kerrys gallup bounce was negative numbers.
Anyone know of anymore historical indicators?
Just read a link on Drudge that said a majority of Israelis believe that Bush's reelection would be better for Israel, than a Kerry win. Wonder what the American Jewish leaders think about that statement?
i will believe him
1. Bush supporters will turn out for Bush.
2. Kerry supporters will turn out for Kerry.
3. Anti-Bush voters are more likely to stay home than anti-Kerry voters.
4. Therefore, Bush wins.
-PJ