This article has been posted to DoctorZin’s New News Blog!
Posted on 08/11/2004 2:48:37 PM PDT by Republican Red
Economist: Forget Polls; Bush Easily Wins
By E&P Staff
Published: August 11, 2004
NEW YORK For all you pundits and political reporters out there who think the Iraq war will have a major influence on the fall election, or who think the Bush-Kerry race is a toss-up, Yale University economist Ray C. Fair has a message for you: forget both. Iraq won't matter and Bush will win in a landslide.
In an interview to be published in next Sunday's "New York Times Magazine," Fair told Deborah Solomon, "My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5% of the two-party votes ... the chances that Bush loses are very small."
Fair, who claims to be a Kerry supporter, is described by the Times in the Aug. 15 issue as being known for creating an econometric equation that "has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy." His most recent book, in fact, is titled, "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things."
How does he explain media expectations of a close race? Polls are "notoriously flaky this far ahead of the election," he said, while his model has allegedly proven accurate to within 2.5%.
Economic growth and inflation are really the only things that matter in a presidential race, he argues, with the current war and social issues such as gay marriage having negligible impact.
Asked if his prediction will boost Bush's prospects, Fair replied, "If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong."
"And I think in December of this year, the press will laugh at anyone who thought Kerry ever had a chance."
-- Yup. And they'll all pretend they didn't ALL call Kerry back in the summer, just like they were calling Dukakis "President Dukakis" in the summer of '88.
Did it go especially overwhelmingly for the Dems last time due to Lieberman, or was it a typical Dem blowout among Jewish voters?
No, they "revealed" the Presdient's DUI as a young man, which completely covered up the news that the Gore computer analysis showed that he KNEW he was going to a Buddhist Temple fundraiser.
But the media cooperated with the Dims, as usual, and only played the DUI story and the Gore computer memos never saw the light of day. I know because I put up a thread on FR about the analysis of Gore's memos - and that thread only got about 30 posts here at FR. Even FR was focussing on the DUI and the terrible consequences for the President.
I question the timing should have been used then - and we ALL should have written letters, made telephone calls to all the tv/cable stations about the Gore memos. We could have turned it around - but no one seemed willing to be that pro-active for the then-Governor of Texas.
Another thing. We need to have Republicans volunteer to go into strictly Demonrat polling places that when they announce their counts late, it isn't because they've thrown in 20,000 dead votes. I'm serious.
Nixon would have won in his first race if he had contested the election for it was well-know that there was chicanery at the polling places of numerous states. BUT NIXON DIDN'T WANT TO PUT THE COUNTRY THROUGH THAT. OTOH, Gore didn't care and did it to us for 35 stinking days.
Considering the delusion required to believe that Bush lied but Kerry didn't and isn't, I wouldn't be hopeful.
How true! Someone said that perception of the economy is the key. Unfortuneatly, the media is making this recovery sound like a recession and the uninformed just might buy it.
Yeah, let's do that. Let's all show up and double Bush's projected winning margin.
Dang, you better stay on her good side.
Ditto.
Two, I think a lot of dems think that it's 1992. The war on terror will be the main issue, or the Vietnam war if Kerry is talking. I think terrorism will trump economics this time around.
"I'm relying on the only thing that got Bush there in the first place--Prayer.
Ditto."
I like your way of thinking. I believe in this strongly.
He is perhaps expecting a large number of Kerry supporters to stay away from the polls?
Me too. I so want to believe what this economist is saying. All day, my local talk radio station news breaks have been telling me that GWB is now down by 49-42 here in Michigan. I hope that changes after the convention, and I will pray in earnest that there is a shift in public perception in favor of GWB all over the country!
I agree! remember the 110% turnouts in Philly, the unanimous precints for Hillary, The free cigarettes and booze in Wisconsin, The kangaroo court in Florida, the disenfranchised military voters, the drag and drop campaigns in our major cities. This is going to be a tough one and we need all the prayer we can get or else we are going to get activist "mke law" judges from here to eternity.
good thoughts ping
The AOL poll projects him winning with 58% of the vote and 525 electoral votes. John F*ckin' wins only Vermont, Connecticut, and D.C. Everything else is a massive sea of Red. The Democrats' worst nightmare come true. LOL
Assuming there is no major new revelation about either candidate, and neither one completely cracks up, this election is going to be close. I don't care what pointy heads say.
Plus your and my VOTE.
I've believed since 9-11, that Divine Intervention was at work to put in place a man who would not look to his own strengths, but look heavenward for help.
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