Posted on 08/11/2004 2:48:37 PM PDT by Republican Red
Economist: Forget Polls; Bush Easily Wins
By E&P Staff
Published: August 11, 2004
NEW YORK For all you pundits and political reporters out there who think the Iraq war will have a major influence on the fall election, or who think the Bush-Kerry race is a toss-up, Yale University economist Ray C. Fair has a message for you: forget both. Iraq won't matter and Bush will win in a landslide.
In an interview to be published in next Sunday's "New York Times Magazine," Fair told Deborah Solomon, "My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5% of the two-party votes ... the chances that Bush loses are very small."
Fair, who claims to be a Kerry supporter, is described by the Times in the Aug. 15 issue as being known for creating an econometric equation that "has predicted presidential elections with relative accuracy." His most recent book, in fact, is titled, "Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things."
How does he explain media expectations of a close race? Polls are "notoriously flaky this far ahead of the election," he said, while his model has allegedly proven accurate to within 2.5%.
Economic growth and inflation are really the only things that matter in a presidential race, he argues, with the current war and social issues such as gay marriage having negligible impact.
Asked if his prediction will boost Bush's prospects, Fair replied, "If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong."
From his lips........
""If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong."
This is a very telling statement.
Sounds like a 'call to arms' to me.
I am a Believer, I also don't think it will be close.
Not even by the convention.
**Fair told Deborah Solomon, "My latest prediction shows that Bush will receive 57.5% of the two-party votes ... the chances that Bush loses are very small."**
From this guy's lips to God's ears!
No -- get out the GOP vote! We have work to do!
"who claims to be a Kerry supporter"
He'd better, if he wants to keep his job...
As I've been predicting...
Could just as easily give the lazy Democrat voters a reason to stay home
I certainly hope he is right, but I read somewhere that his model also predicted that Bush I would win in 1992.
I take nothing for granted! All Bush supporters still must go and vote. I want to see a landslide destroying the liberals for years to come. If Kerry is the best they have to offer it's possible.
"No -- get out the GOP vote! We have work to do!"
I think you're right.
The statement may have been deliberate to get the GOP'ers to lower their guard.
The whole thing sounds like a desperate act by a desperate party.
The undecided voters are going to get to the polls and realize they have no idea who John Kerry is. The ones who KNOW who he is will cast their vote on the war...
Could just as easily give the lazy Democrat voters a reason to stay home
Possibly. But I think it's more of a ploy to get GOP'ers to 'ease up'.
If economics were the deciding factor in elections in 21st century America, this would be true. But it isn't. If it were, Gore would be President. The recession had barely begun during late 2000, and economically things were fantastic.
Values are the most important part of American politics. It's the reason the undecideds are such a minuscule part of the electorate, and why the supporters for both candidates are so immovable. 50% of America sees itself reflected in one candidate, and 50% of America sees itself in the other candidate. Abortion, gays, guns, God in the public square, the war - these are the issues that will drive a huge percentage of voters to the polls. The economy figures in prominently, of course, but not nearly at the rate it used to.
Greenspan is trying along with the Arabs to sabotage Bush.
Twice they raised rates now before an election and they did not do that for years.
Arabs are allowing the raising of oil prices right now!!!!
I don't think they will succeed, but they are sure trying.
You never know -- one should not be complacent. It ain't over till the fat lady sings, etc. etc.
"If Kerry supporters see that I have made this big prediction for Bush, more of them could turn out just to prove an economist wrong."
"Could just as easily give the lazy Democrat voters a reason to stay home"
-- Liberals don't believe in market economics, so they would be indifferent.
I took a class from Fair, I don't put too much stake in what he says here.
There are 2 flaws to his method.
1) He uses only economic data to the exclusion of everything else. This is understandable given his bias as an economist, but elections don't only hinge on economics.
2) He uses actual economic data, when often elections are determined by public perception of the economy. Which generally trails reality by quite a few months. This is why Fair's method predicted that GHWB would beat Clinton. Because although the economy had turned around before Nov 1992, the public didn't recognize the improvement til after.
He's trying to arouse fear in his dem brethren. He hopes it will get them to the polls.
If it works to the benefit of John Effin Krap in November, he'll have to update his 'econometric equation' to account for the meddling of biased economists.
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