Posted on 08/11/2004 11:16:47 AM PDT by plushaye
August 11, 2004
Release of: Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates 703-684-4510
“Swift Boat “controversy” gets Voters’ attention and nicks Kerry”
ALEXANDRIA, VA – Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (FMA), a Republican polling and strategic consulting firm based in Alexandria, VA, has just completed their second likely voter survey with interviews conducted ONLY in the 19 battleground states. The battleground states are defined as those in which the Bush and Kerry campaigns have been focusing their paid media efforts throughout the campaign.
Nearly 6 in 10 likely voters claim that they that they recently saw, read or heard something about the TV ad “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth” released and began airing in several key battleground states questioning the truthfulness of Senator Kerry’s Vietnam War record. Among those who claimed to have seen, read or heard something about the ad, a majority overall and among undecided voters said it would not impact their vote either way. However to the extent it did impact voting intentions, it was a negative for Sen. Kerry by as much as nearly a 3 to 1 margin.
“Make no mistake -- controversy surrounding potential “dirty laundry” still sells in American politics and this is a sterling example of it. But most surprising is that despite Sen. McCain’s swift and very public repudiation of this ad and the lingering questions on the veracity of the charges, it still ends up being a net negative for Kerry – especially among crucial undecided voters. In a close race where every little bit counts, Kerry can’t afford to sustain too many minor hits like this.” said Tony Fabrizio, who served as chief pollster for Bob Dole’s ’96 Presidential campaign.
“Recently, have you seen, read or heard anything about a TV ad being aired by a group of Vietnam Veterans who question the truthfulness of Sen. John Kerry’s Vietnam War record?”
Overall 2 Way Undecided 3 Way Undecided Yes 57.6% 48.5% 38.3% No 35.4 42.1 45.1 DK/Refused 7.0 9.4 16.6
ASKED ONLY OF THOSE AWARE: “And did what you saw, read or heard make you MORE likely or LESS likely to vote for John Kerry for President? If it didn’t impact how you would vote, just say so.”
Overall 2 Way Undecided 3 Way Undecided More Likely 19.4% 10.9% 9.5% No Impact 50.8 51.1 56.2 Less Likely 27.1 29.9 24.1 DK/Refused 2.7 8.0 10.3 Net +/- -7.7% -19.0% -14.6%
About the Poll
The telephone survey was conducted in the 19 battleground states in which the Bush and Kerry campaigns have focused their paid media efforts to this point. The sample of 1,000 likely Presidential voters was conducted on August 8-9, 2004 and has a margin of error of +/-3.1% at the 95% confidence interval. Respondent selection was at random within predetermined geographic units to reflect actual electoral vote allotment to each state. The battleground states used for the survey were AR, AZ, CO, FL, IA, LA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NH, NM, NV, OH, OR, PA, WA, WI, WV.
Amen, if it means playing dirty to keep America safe, then play dirty.
They've tried something???
Me, too, money to the SwiftVets is at least 10 times as effective as Bush and RNC ads.
Good point, although I know they have spent millions of dollars.
We need to step up. The link's on the FR forum page. Enough of the local ad-buys - let's get this thing on National TV during the World Series!
Whoa, if you want some enlightenment, take a peek at the "captive" history of Johnny boy... There is absolutely NO doubt that this guy got preferred treatment because Daddy was an admiral. He actually came out of captivity weighing MORE than when he went in. i wm not going to go off on McLiar, but do a little research on this guy.
Semper Disturbed
I'm sure that McCain believes this, and that kerry hopes it's true, which is why I'm so disappointed that McCain would be "on-call" for the kerry campaign to use in a counter-attack; mere days before he was scheduled to spend time campaigning with Bush.
I expect this same pattern to be followed over and over then next couple of months, Rats always seem to rise to the bait.
I hope we've got some pushpollers working on this. Example question:
Q. How would your opinion of Democrat John Kerry change if you knew the following information to be true:
1. John Kerry executed a wounded vietnamese teenage boy in 1968 by machinegunning him in the back
2. John Kerry faked the severity of his war injuries in order to get some medals for bravery.
3. John Kerry was a member of a radical organization that voted on assasinating a U.S. senator.
Your opionion would be:
a. More postitive
b. More negative
LOL, I am disappointed that you are disappointed. Really, this is something you should expect from McCain. I fully expect McCain to do things like this. McCain loves the spotlight.
I agree the agency has a Republican bias. However, the pubbies have taken a powerful hands-off attitude to the commercial and the Swiftvets in general, strongly contrasting with the DemonRats passionate embrace of Michael Moore, et al. Thus, I conclude that the poll was objectively done to get an accurate result and see if the ad is really working.
I remember one of the tapes of a White House coffee where Clinton was very persuasively explaining to potential donors why they should give more money for ads. He used poll results showing the efficacy of the ads to persuade the donors to give money.
It's the same here. We need an accurate reading on the ad's impact to see if we should give more money to the Swiftvets. It looks like the ad's beginning to draw blood and we should give more money. Their website where we can give is www.swiftvets.com.
I think you are a bit off here. Kerry exaggerated the injuries to get to go home early. His three purple hearts were his ticket home.
LOL. Funny examples. But sure illustrates how worthless polls are.
Your version might be closer to the truth, but my version will play better towards undecided voters. Faking the severity of the injuries for medals is harder to swallow than faking injuries to go home earlier.
I don't believe that was his objective. I think he was going for medals.
It was one of his commanding officers that told him to leave after his 3rd purple heart because he thought he was unfit for duty.
The other reason I believe that is because of what Kerry said to one of his men in Nam. He said, "I will be the next JFK." In other words he is emulating Kennedy, which in my opinion is why he joined in the first place.
Some nice FReeper hotlinked the site sometime back, and I bookmarked it. Just made up my mind and sent the Swiftboat Vets $50. I hope lots of others will do the same.
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