Posted on 08/11/2004 11:16:47 AM PDT by plushaye
August 11, 2004
Release of: Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates 703-684-4510
“Swift Boat “controversy” gets Voters’ attention and nicks Kerry”
ALEXANDRIA, VA – Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates (FMA), a Republican polling and strategic consulting firm based in Alexandria, VA, has just completed their second likely voter survey with interviews conducted ONLY in the 19 battleground states. The battleground states are defined as those in which the Bush and Kerry campaigns have been focusing their paid media efforts throughout the campaign.
Nearly 6 in 10 likely voters claim that they that they recently saw, read or heard something about the TV ad “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth” released and began airing in several key battleground states questioning the truthfulness of Senator Kerry’s Vietnam War record. Among those who claimed to have seen, read or heard something about the ad, a majority overall and among undecided voters said it would not impact their vote either way. However to the extent it did impact voting intentions, it was a negative for Sen. Kerry by as much as nearly a 3 to 1 margin.
“Make no mistake -- controversy surrounding potential “dirty laundry” still sells in American politics and this is a sterling example of it. But most surprising is that despite Sen. McCain’s swift and very public repudiation of this ad and the lingering questions on the veracity of the charges, it still ends up being a net negative for Kerry – especially among crucial undecided voters. In a close race where every little bit counts, Kerry can’t afford to sustain too many minor hits like this.” said Tony Fabrizio, who served as chief pollster for Bob Dole’s ’96 Presidential campaign.
“Recently, have you seen, read or heard anything about a TV ad being aired by a group of Vietnam Veterans who question the truthfulness of Sen. John Kerry’s Vietnam War record?”
Overall 2 Way Undecided 3 Way Undecided Yes 57.6% 48.5% 38.3% No 35.4 42.1 45.1 DK/Refused 7.0 9.4 16.6
ASKED ONLY OF THOSE AWARE: “And did what you saw, read or heard make you MORE likely or LESS likely to vote for John Kerry for President? If it didn’t impact how you would vote, just say so.”
Overall 2 Way Undecided 3 Way Undecided More Likely 19.4% 10.9% 9.5% No Impact 50.8 51.1 56.2 Less Likely 27.1 29.9 24.1 DK/Refused 2.7 8.0 10.3 Net +/- -7.7% -19.0% -14.6%
About the Poll
The telephone survey was conducted in the 19 battleground states in which the Bush and Kerry campaigns have focused their paid media efforts to this point. The sample of 1,000 likely Presidential voters was conducted on August 8-9, 2004 and has a margin of error of +/-3.1% at the 95% confidence interval. Respondent selection was at random within predetermined geographic units to reflect actual electoral vote allotment to each state. The battleground states used for the survey were AR, AZ, CO, FL, IA, LA, ME, MI, MN, MO, NH, NM, NV, OH, OR, PA, WA, WI, WV.
Who do they think McCain is? I never thought he had that much pull with the American public.
The ad is getting heard and it is having impact. So far the SBVT have been more effective than anything the Bush campaign has tried.
I don't think a vague knowledge of the ad has the same impact of actually seeing it. The Swifties need to get the ad itself to voters. (And yes, I have sent a contribution)
I guess they see McCain has having some pull with swing voters, which may be true.
"despite Sen. McCain’s swift and very public repudiation "
I never could understand McCain.
He's a man who fought and suffered in a camp in Vietnam for his country. And yet, his views are closer to his captives than to his countries.
McCain/Feingold is more of a 'socialist' policy than a 'republic(an)' one.
Maybe there is something to be said for 'brainwashing' that quite possibly it's effects are never truely reversed.
(Torture by the Vietcong definately is brainwashing, even if you are determined that it won't be. It can't help but change your attitude.)
I still admire McCain for his service and surviving his trauma though.
With these kind of numbers, expect the Kerry campaign to go nuclear real soon. The attacks against the SBVT will be stepped up, big time.
>>despite Sen. McCain’s swift and very public repudiation of this ad and the lingering questions on the veracity of the charges, it still ends up being a net negative for Kerry <<
Maybe because the democrats are really, really, really, overrating what conservatives think about "John McCain-Feigold" and his opinion on anything!
All campaigns are dirty. This high road stuff is BS nonsense. You have to point out the faults and shortcomings of an opponent. People will gripe and complain about it sure. They will say we must talk about the "issues" from atop their high horse. But in the end, its politics as usual. Since when is exposing the facts about an opponent dirty anyways? The Swift Vets are bringing FACTS to light.
Because the SwiftVets are telling the truth that Kerry is a phony, Bush does "feel good" ads.
Negative ads work, and we should use them to unmask the essence of JFK.
That means I am going to have to dig down into my pocket and send them another contribution.
Bottom line, MOST of the people who said it might change their mind said it reflects poorly on Kerry.
If this race is as close as the pollsters say, Even a 2% switch of undecideds ruins Kerry's chances.
Absolutely. The majority of Kerry's base are those who hate Bush for one reason or another, not who actually like Kerry.
What is nice is that the "Christmas in Cambodia" issue does not depend on the Swifties, and hasn't really begun to play. There is no one for Kerry to smear, save perhaps for whomever transcribes the Congressional Record.
I hope someone steps up so the SBVs can double the buy.
The other reason why the RATS are panicked is that these ads give traction and credibility for what is coming next: his anti-war activities; and the assault on his liberal record from the Bush campaign.
Even if people polled were to claim they were "disgusted" by the ad (expect to see some Dim polls proclaiming this very thing --soon), that wouldn't mean the ad wasn't having its desired effect.
People claim all the time to pollsters that they hate negative ads. Yet those very negative ads, generally, have very positive impact.
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