Posted on 08/10/2004 4:09:42 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST FRI AUG 13 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.8N 78.8W 49 X X 1 50 COCOA BEACH FL X X 1 11 12
20.7N 81.1W 2 34 X X 36 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 11 11
22.9N 82.3W X 14 15 X 29 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 9 9
MDCB 176N 714W 3 X X X 3 SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4
MTCA 183N 738W 21 X X X 21 KEY WEST FL X 3 19 2 24
MKJP 179N 768W 67 X X X 67 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 12 8 20
MKJS 185N 779W 57 X X X 57 FT MYERS FL X X 8 11 19
MWCG 193N 814W 6 25 X 1 32 VENICE FL X X 6 13 19
MUGM 200N 751W 5 X X X 5 TAMPA FL X X 2 14 16
MUCM 214N 779W 7 12 X X 19 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 14 14
MUCF 221N 805W X 28 2 X 30 ST MARKS FL X X X 11 11
MUSN 216N 826W X 23 6 1 30 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 12 12
MUHA 230N 824W X 12 16 1 29 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 11 11
MUAN 219N 850W X 2 12 3 17 PENSACOLA FL X X X 7 7
MMCZ 205N 869W X X 1 3 4 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5
MYAK 241N 776W X 1 2 4 7 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4
MYNN 251N 775W X X 2 4 6 BURAS LA X X X 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W X X 2 7 9 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2
MARATHON FL X 2 17 3 22 GULF 29N 85W X X X 14 14
MIAMI FL X X 10 7 17 GULF 29N 87W X X X 10 10
W PALM BEACH FL X X 4 10 14 GULF 28N 89W X X X 5 5
FT PIERCE FL X X 2 11 13
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU
C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU
D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 GMT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT
295 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
REPORTS FROM A RECENT U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED
SLIGHTLY TO NEAR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BONNIE IS A SMALL STORM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO ONLY 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...25.0 N... 90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
$$
Looks like Bonnie will make landfall as a minor hurricane or strong tropical storm.
000
WTNT42 KNHC 110224
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004
AN AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FROM 17 TO 23Z FOUND A MAXIMUM
WIND OF 43 KT AT 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL AND 1004 MB. ALSO SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SPUTTERING VERY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THEREFORE THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND IS REDUCED FROM 45 KT TO 40 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/04. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN
ADVANCE OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE
GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.
BONNIE HAS ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE ENCOUNTERING
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SINCE THE CURRENT TREND
HAS BEEN FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE WINDS TO 82 KT
BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT NONE OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH
STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL GOES TO ONLY 45 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST 70 KT WINDS BEFORE LANDFALL AND THIS
ADVISORY FORECAST BACKS OFF TO 60 KT WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH.
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 25.0N 90.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 90.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 27.6N 89.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.8N 86.7W 60 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 32.5N 83.2W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0000Z 42.0N 75.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
I can't believe this! My daughter's best friend is getting married in Orlando on Saturday...my daughter is maid of honor and we are all supposed to be at the wedding. Not to mention we leave to take our son to college in SC on Sunday. I guess it will be a very wet drive.
BTTT
On alert here in Central Florida. Looks like its going to be a rainy weekend at the very least.
Sorry - had to do the dishes. Thanks for the SG info - I don't have to spend that much - except for practice it'll probably only be used once or twice. Just want quality and reliablity. Self/family defense only. I'd like thoughts on stud-mounted quick-release shotgun setup. I have to be locked with my kids and friends around. :-(
Oops, Oops. Forgot to say: "G'Night!" ;-)
FYI
East of Tampa and all I have is a Gheenoe.
Berry astute of you.
Looking better for the Panhandle. Bonnie not strengthening much and Charley headed East hopefully.
You know, you can really do just as well with a $250 Mossberg Persuader pump shotgun. Any dcent gunshop probably has one. It usually has a short bbl and an extended magazine which takes between six and eight shells.
Another model which is very interesting to me is the Remington 870 Marine shotgun. This is basically an 8 shot riot gun with a nickeled, corrosion resistant finish. It's very popular with boaters.I think they can be had for around $450.
As for locks, I hate em.
If you have to have it locked up, I'd consider a gun safe. There are several models that have both key locks and electronic combination locks. And they can be had for around $500.
The beauty of it is you can put your other valuables in there when you go out of town.
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS BEEN
MOVING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK SO
THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 285/16.
THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. CHARLEY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONE. THIS IS INDICATED BY
ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW
SHARP THE CURVE WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONLY SMALL
CHANGES IN THIS CURVE WILL HAVE IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE
IMPACT OF CHARLEY ON SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE EARLY GOING...BUT
ESSENTIALLY BLENDS INTO THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 24 HOURS. THE
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD LOCATION AND SLOWER FORWARD SPEED RESULTS IN THE
SAME FORECAST POINT AT 48 HOURS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO
WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE NOT YET BEEN
ISSUED. THESE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED A CLOSED EYEWALL AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
WAS DOWN TO 995 MB...ALTHOUGH ON A SUBSEQUENT FIX IT WAS 996 MB.
BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE CYCLONE IS NEARING HURRICANE
INTENSITY. CHARLEY LOOKS WELL ORGANIZED ON MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES.
THERE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND VERTICAL
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THEREFORE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING WILL BE LAND.
HOWEVER THE LAND MASSES OF JAMAICA...AND EVEN WESTERN CUBA...ARE
NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY
SHOWS STRENGTHENING IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS
OUTPUT. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL
CYCLONE INTENSITY. CHARLEY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONGER
HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAN INDICATED HERE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/1500Z 16.5N 76.1W 60 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.9N 78.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 20.0N 80.9W 75 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 22.7N 82.0W 80 KT...ON COAST OF CUBA
48HR VT 13/1200Z 25.0N 82.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 14/1200Z 34.0N 79.0W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1200Z 44.0N 71.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1200Z 51.0N 55.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
NNNN
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
...CHARELY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HAITI BE DISCONTINUED.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
CHARLEY IS CENTERED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT
110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.
CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
1500Z WED AUG 11 2004
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HAITI BE DISCONTINUED.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5 76.1 W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..175NE 100SE 50SW 175NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 76.1W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 75.4W
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.9N 78.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.0N 80.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.7N 82.0W...ON COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 44.0N 71.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 51.0N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 76.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
FORECASTER PASCH
$$
Wow, the folks in the Keys could be in for it.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004
...BONNIE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER.
AT 10 AM CDT...15000Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER.
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT
235 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. A TURN TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM
THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42001 LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF
BONNIE REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 47 MPH WITH A GUST TO
60 MPH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS SATURATED THE
GROUND. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF BONNIE
BY THURSDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...25.9 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
CDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
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