Posted on 08/10/2004 4:09:42 PM PDT by My Favorite Headache
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS CHANGED
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING AROUND 992 AND 993 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WIND WAS 76
KNOTS WITH A SMALL CLOSED EYEWALL OF 8 N MI. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. SINCE THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...THE SHEAR IS
LOW...AND THE FACT THAT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN
AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODELS. THE GFDL IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES CHARLEY A 106-KNOT HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES
WESTERN CUBA.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK. THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON
AS A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.8N 78.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 19.6N 80.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 22.5N 82.3W 85 KT...NEARING CUBA
36HR VT 13/1200Z 25.5N 82.5W 90 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 14/0000Z 29.5N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0000Z 38.0N 77.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 16/0000Z 46.5N 68.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/0000Z 51.5N 53.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
Hurricane CHARLEY
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004
...BONNIE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM DESTIN EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH
OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF DESTIN WESTWARD TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST OR ABOUT
260 MILES SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.
BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA
THURSDAY MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
BONNIE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND BONNIE MAY
BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS
1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
STORM SURGE FLOODING COULD BE 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IN APALACHEE BAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH BONNIE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA.
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N... 88.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM CDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
BONNIE HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL CHANGES DURING THE PAST
6-9 HR. THE TIGHT INNER CORE THAT HAD BEEN PRESENT FOR THE LAST
THREE DAYS COLLAPSED DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE MAXIMUM
WINDS IN A BAND OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER. SO FAR...THE
EVENING RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT HAS REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
1007-1008 MB AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 39 KT. ON
THE OTHER HAND...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB
AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...SUGGESTING THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT
HAVE SAMPLED THE STRONGEST WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
DECREASED TO 50 KT...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/10. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY STRAIGHT
FORWARD. BONNIE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTELY FLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND
THE TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
THE COLLAPSE OF THE CENTRAL CORE AND STEADILY INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS
CLOSING. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS JUST GENERATED A BURST OF
CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS
FLARE-UP COULD REGENERATE A TIGHT CENTER AND BRING BONNIE TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AT
ALL BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO
LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL... BONNIE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL. ONE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO KEEP THE
WINDS AT 35 KT DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE DUE TO THE NEAR 35 KT
MOTION.
SINCE BONNIE COULD STILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.
THIS WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED IF LATER DATA SHOWS THAT BONNIE
IS NOT RE-INTENSIFYING.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 27.4N 88.4W 50 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 28.9N 86.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 31.9N 83.6W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 13/1200Z 36.5N 78.5W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 14/0000Z 42.0N 73.5W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 15/0000Z 53.5N 62.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
$$
Here's how it is going to play out...
The storms devastate Florida, Georgia, N. & S. Carolina. The Federal Government comes in with FEMA. Bush's ratings go up in those states.
Howard Dean claims that Bush was behind the storms.
Michael Moore makes a movie about how Bush's golf swing, caused a breeze, which turned into a wind, which turned into a storm, which attacked the Southern States.
It looks like Bonnie is not going to be a bad one.
.
hi. im from England and me and my family are going on holiday to Florida, flying next Thursday at mid-day. I was just wondering if anyone on this board knows anything about when the hurricanes will have passed and if they'll affect or flight next week.
Thanks very much.
They should both be well out of Florida by then.
What city will yo be flying into?
we fly to Sandford airport, arriving on Thursday 19th Aug, at 5pm American time but we're staying in Kissimee.
Ever been??
Oh I forgot - in the land of the free you can't - even though Miami is only ninety miles off shore from this fragile UNESCO world heritage site.
Crowing about potential damge there shows you for what you are.
I will continue to look for news and hope that the Malecon, the beautiful Hotel Nacionale, and the millions of friendly, disciplined, music loving, inhabitants of that potentially lovely island are safe.
Charley will clear out of Florida early tomorrow morning. By Thursday, what is left of the storm will be in the North Atlantic Ocean, hundreds of miles away from Florida.
But there is another storm that has formed in the Atlantic, that appears to be taking the same path as Charley. If it actually does so, it will impact Florida next Friday or Saturday.
If my comment painted too broad a brush for your sensibilities, tough.
By the way, praising the UN won't win you many friends here. Thought you should know...
Well, looks like Kissimmee was right in the path, so it would be a good idea to check in with your hotel and so forth to make sure it is intact and your stay will be a pleasant one- there will be better assessments of storm damage today once the sun rises, so give them a chance to check out the damage.
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