HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS CHANGED
LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING AROUND 992 AND 993 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WIND WAS 76
KNOTS WITH A SMALL CLOSED EYEWALL OF 8 N MI. INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. SINCE THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...THE SHEAR IS
LOW...AND THE FACT THAT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN
AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...INTENSIFICATION IS
FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODELS. THE GFDL IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES CHARLEY A 106-KNOT HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES
WESTERN CUBA.
THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK. THE HURRICANE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON
AS A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.8N 78.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 19.6N 80.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 22.5N 82.3W 85 KT...NEARING CUBA
36HR VT 13/1200Z 25.5N 82.5W 90 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 14/0000Z 29.5N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0000Z 38.0N 77.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 16/0000Z 46.5N 68.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 17/0000Z 51.5N 53.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
Hurricane CHARLEY