Summary 8/10/04 thru 8/11/04
Activity levels are increasing, so I am issuing another summary just so everyone can keep abreast.
Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
(8/1/04) Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C
1. Attack threat windows - (8/3/04) An operative, described as "credible" by British intelligence, told his debriefers that the attack would take place "60 days before the presidential election" which is held on Nov. 2 of this year, according to a former senior National Security Council official. On Sept. 2 (about 60 days prior) President George W. Bush is expected to address the Republican National Convention at Madison Square Garden. It appears that this ‘early September’ attack window is getting more credibility from government sources to the media.
Secondary window: (8/10/04) No change. Between now and Nov 2, 2004. This window is based upon AQ threats to disrupt our national elections. This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005.
Attack Indicators
8/11/04 Intelligence reports are expecting a video from OBL that will put into motion the next major rounds of terrorism against the US and European allies. You read it here first on 8/8! The first item will be an assassination. This plot is following the events leading up to 911 where the N. Alliance leader in Afganistan was killed a day or so before 911!
8/9/04 Press Trust of India/Agence France Presse High-level al-Qaeda operatives from around the world had been traveling to Afghanistan-Pakistan border apparently to hold summits that had an uncanny resemblance to the Qaeda meeting in Malaysia in January 2000 which firmed up plans for September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, a media report said on Monday.
For several months, it said, the US government had been picking up reports from its spies, electronic intercepts, and "liaison services" (friendly intelligence services) of a Qaeda plot to strike the American homeland before the November elections.
8/6/04 - A drop in so-called "chatter" among suspected terrorists is troubling some counterterrorism officials, who noticed a reduction in intercepted communications before the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, government sources said.
Diminished communication prompted the concern because the counterterror experts don't know why suspected terrorists would be talking less. But they noted that similar reductions have happened several other times during the past few years.
Debka is reporting that there has been a corresponding increase in new jhiadist websites where the content is celebratory. This same activity was allegedly last noted approximately two months before the 911 attack.
International
8/10/04 Al Osama bin Laden's Al Qaeda network has named new leaders to replace those who have been killed or captured, promoting from within and recruiting new operatives to run the organization, The New York Times reports. Authorities are examining whether bin Laden is still at the helm of the organization or whether he has passed those responsibilities on to his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri.
(8/8/04) There are rumors that OBL will soon be releasing a new vidio tape.
Iraq
8/11/04 BAGHDAD – The interim government in Baghdad has again charged Teheran with supplying a range of weapons to the Mahdi Army, headed by Shi'ite cleric Moqtada Sadr. "There are Iranian-made weapons that have been found in the hands of criminals in Najaf who received these weapons from across the Iranian border,"
Italy
8/11/04 Security in Italy's art cities, including Venice, Florence and Rome, will be tightened over the coming holiday weekend after a stream of threats from militants, officials said on Tuesday.
8/7/04 - Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades said in a statement Saturday its cells in Italy were ready to strike if the country did not withdraw troops from Iraq before a 15-day deadline given by the group expired this month. On August 1st, Al Qaeda’s Abu Hafez Masry Brigades gave Berlusconi 15 days to withdraw 3,000 troops from Iraq or face terror attack on Rome.
"To our cells in Italian cities in Rome and everywhere in Italy, war is approaching...get ready to strike any target in front of you after the end of the truce," it said.
This is the 6th threat since July 15, the end of a ‘truce’ issued to Europe by OBL. Other threats issued July 2, 16, 26, 28 , 30 and August 5. Some U.S. officials and some terrorism experts believe Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, lacks credibility and has only tenuous ties to al-Qaida.
England
8/10/04 WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Nearly 1,000 computer disks were recovered last week as part of a series of arrests in the United Kingdom of alleged al Qaeda operatives, U.S. government sources have told CNN. Both British and American authorities are analyzing the information in the disks for any potential clues to possible al Qaeda attack plans
08/09/04 A terror plot to detonate a bomb inside a Tube tunnel beneath the Thames has been uncovered by MI5 chiefs, it was reported yesterday. The explosion would pierce the bed of the river, leaving tens of thousands of rush- hour commuters to be drowned or trampled underfoot in the panic as people tried to flee. Blueprints for an attack on the Underground and maps of the tunnels were reported to have been discovered at an al- Qaeda training camp in Afghanistan, a Sunday newspaper reported.
Iran
8/9/04 VIENNA, Austria (AP) - Iran has told Europe's leading powers that it wants them to back its right to nuclear technology that can be used to make weapons. Diplomats said Monday the move has dismayed the Europeans and strengthens Washington's push for U.N. sanctions against Tehran. Diplomats said Iran's conditions effectively stall the European attempt to convince Tehran to give up the technology that would allow them to make nuclear arms and pushes Europe closer to the U.S. view that Iran should be hauled before the U.N. Security Council for violating the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
8/9/04 Iran’s defense minister announces test coming shortly of improved Shehab-3 ballistic missile (capable of reaching all parts of Israel.) He warns Israel against striking Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Israel
8/8/04 TEL AVIV – Israeli security sources said the Islamic insurgency movement has been monitoring and targeting leading Israeli defense companies. The sources said Hamas decided to target the defense firms as part of an effort to strike a strategic blow to Israeli interests.
UAE
08/08/04 Senior al-Qaida Operative Captured in UAE, Associated Press - In a new blow to al-Qaida, authorities in the United Arab Emirates captured Qari Saifullah Akhtar, a senior operative in Osama bin Laden's terror network, who trained thousands of militants for combat, and turned him over to Pakistan, the information minister said Sunday. Akhtar was believed involved in two December attempts to assassinate President Gen. Pervez Musharraf. He has been extradited to Pakistan.
Egypt
8/8/04 CAIRO – A massive supply of explosives stolen from Egyptian warehouses last week could have found its way to either Al Qaida or Palestinian terrorists. The sources said authorities were concerned that the explosives were stolen to fulfill an order by Islamic or Palestinian insurgents. They did not rule out that some of the explosives could be headed for the Gaza Strip. Another scenario was that the explosives would be used for a major Al Qaida-inspired attack in either Egypt or another North African ally of the United States. Over the last year, Egypt has arrested hundreds of Islamic suspects connected to the Muslim Brotherhood or Al Qaida-inspired groups.
Turkey
8/10/04 A statement released this morning by the Abu Hafs Masry Brigaded claimed credit for this morning's Istanbul bombings.
8/9/04 Simultaneous blasts at two small hotels in Istanbul early Tuesday left 2 dead - an Iranian and Turk - and 8 injured. Anonymous call warned of coming explosion in Pars Hotel. Holiday Hotel frequented by Russian tourists. No casualties in third and fourth blasts at a liquefied gas storage site. Police initially suspect Kurdish underground or Chechen terrorists.
United States
8/11/04 From Bill Gertz (Washington Times) U.S. intelligence officials say a high-profile political assassination, triggered by the public release of a new message from Osama bin Laden, will lead off the next major al Qaeda terrorist attack.
The assassination plan is among new details of al Qaeda plots disclosed by U.S. officials familiar with intelligence reports who, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the killing could be carried out against a U.S. or foreign leader either in the United States or abroad.
The officials mentioned Saudi Arabia and Yemen, two nations that are working with the United States in the battle against al Qaeda, as likely locales for the opening assassination.
The planning for the attacks to follow involves "multiple targets in multiple venues" across the United States, one official said.
8/8/04 Washington Times, Congressional leaders have been told that federal lawmakers and the U.S. Capitol, in addition to five financial centers identified last week, are targets for attack by al Qaeda terrorists. However the Washington DC police chief is currently disputing that claim.
(8/8/04) Recent discussions on TM have speculated on what appears to be a shift of operational control (OPCON) from the ‘high command’ of OBL down to a lower echelon. This has precedent in that Atta received OPCON from OBL, even to the point of designating the day of the attack. This lowers the profile of the communications signature, permitting more secure methods of communications to be used.
One thing is for certain, AQ was planning another operation. Recent communications changes seem to imply that it will occur in the near future.
2. Attack method.
8/9/04 New York Times. Al-Qaeda has been planning to use tourist helicopters to attack New York City. As a result, the officials said, security measures for helicopter operators in New York City will be stepped up in a new directive as early as this week. Among the new measures under review is a requirement for operators to conduct airport-style screenings of passengers for suspicious items, said an official with the Department of Homeland Security who had been briefed on the plan. So far, no groundings of helicopter operators are planned.
(8/8/04) DHS briefing of 8/6/04 indicates the most probable attack method will be using car or truck bombs. As described by DHS, this has the makings for a classic AQ strike – 5 targets in regionally close proximity, somewhat lower on the radar screen than other, high profile locations, thus with the potential to be less well guarded. A coordinated operation involving up to six groups in a regional area (NE U.S.) would fit the MO of AQ. It is possible that this latest information could be related to the briefing given to congress last month, where Tom Dachel said that it was very serious.
Additional recent discussions on TM have looked at a number of attack option rankings. Hopefully I’ve been able to summarize HipShot and Exsoldier’s discussions - please let me know if I’ve misstated anything The highest ranking (LEVEL 1) would consist of massive, high casualty attacks potentially involving WMD. Due to the high value resources in trained personnel and equipment, these would be under relatively close control of OBL
The second level (LEVEL 2) would consist of more conventional attacks - car and truck bombs or other explosives placed to cause significant causalities or terror. Because AQ’s MO is to coordinate these attacks, a degree of control appears to be passed down to a local/regional commander to select sites, dates and times.
The lowest (LEVEL 3) would consist of cells/groups attacking targets of opportunity with little coordination. This is a significant portion of the insurgent operations currently in Iraq. If applied in the US, it would be conceived as bombings, sniper attacks, kidnappings and the sort.
Finally TM discussions have evaluated the potential scope / size of the attack. This has ranged from a 4-6 high value coordinated target / high casualty attack to a full spectrum of the three levels in the range of dozens of attacks. There are indicators for the possibilities. The LEVEL 1 / LEVEL 2 attack scenario appears to be what our government is anticipating. However, with the influx of ME coming in via Mexico, there is an additional concern about LEVEL 3 incidents that could occur in conjunction with a major attack. The LEVEL 3 would be harder for our national assets to identify and must rely upon LEO and citizen tips to id terrorists before any attack. B. Discussion in TM, internet and from national news sources indicate continued AQ interest in aircraft hijacking.
(8/3/04) IMHO, AQ nuclear option, though still rumored, does not appear to be as strong given the intel surrounding the 8/1 DHS alert, which indicates a more traditional truck bomb approach.
Personnel
8/10/04 WASHINGTON, Aug. 10 - Citing concerns about terrorists crossing the nation's land borders, the Department of Homeland Security announced today that it planned to give border patrol agents sweeping new powers to deport illegal aliens from the frontiers abutting Mexico and Canada without providing the aliens the opportunity to make their case before an immigration judge.
8/9/04 U.S. government policy requires that young Middle Eastern men who are caught crossing illegally into the United States from Mexico be treated the same as illegal aliens from elsewhere in the world--meaning that if they don't have criminal records, don't appear on government watch lists and are not deemed to be suspicious by the federal law enforcement officers who interview them, they most likely will be released into the U.S. population.
All 19 of the Sept. 11, 2001, hijackers were young men from Saudi Arabia and Egypt. None of them had criminal records, not all were on watch lists, and few apparently raised significant suspicions among American border or visa authorities.
In just the McAllen, Tex., sector of the Southern border, 19,460 nationals other than Mexicans (OTMs) were apprehended between Oct. 1, 2003, and July 28, 2004, according to a local Border Patrol spokesman. One of those was Farida Ahmed, a Muslim woman with a South African passport on her way to New York. Astute Border Patrol agents detained her at McAllen International Airport on July 19. She is charged with entering the country illegally, possessing an altered passport, and lying to investigators.
ICE does not keep central statistics on OTMs apprehended crossing the Southern border. Eddie Flores, spokesman for the McAllen sector of the Border Patrol, said that in his sector, foreigners of numerous nationalities have been caught sneaking into the country from Mexico. After Mexicans, he said, Hondurans and El Salvadorans are the most numerous. But he could not provide a precise breakdown, he said, because he wasn't supposed to give one out and also because he didn't have one anyway. "Washington told me to hold that back, but I don't have a breakdown," he said.
One purpose the infiltration of ME men in to the US could serve would be to supply more people for more initial and follow-on car/truck suicide bomb attacks. The effect of dozens of simultaneous car-bomb attacks at soft targets (malls, amusement parks, sporting events, etc) would create substantial panic as this would reveal to the American people that we are far more vulnerable than the general person on the street thinks we are.
A second reason is that the US Moslem community is absent martyr complex and substantial cultural ‘brain washing’ prevalent with the Middle East jihadists and not inclined to commit suicide, thus the bulk of people needed to commit suicide bombings are having to be ‘imported’. With the exception of 911, the suicide car bomb has been the weapon of choice, needing only willing martyrs and the careful accumulation of explosive material (fertilizer, etc).
4. Significant meetings canceled:
A. (8/2/04) None I am aware of.
5. Security has been heightened in specific cities
(8/1/04) NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are now at threat level ORANGE. International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York
Additional security has also been implimented the American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros., Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve Bank, Bear Stearns, the UN, Wachovia, AIG, MetLife and JP Morgan Chase. The TransAmerica building, the well-known pyramid-topped skyscraper and the Bank of America Bldg in San Francisco also were on the computer files captured. However, threat levels were not raised by the DHS for these buildings.
(8/5/04) New security procedures are being put in place for the Federal Reserve in DC. Police in Washington DC are blocking all traffic flow around the Capitol, and to search some of the vehicles, to ensure that explosives do not get near the building.
(8/02/04) Until further notice, trucks are now banned from taking the Williamsburg Bridge into Lower Manhattan. The Holland and Brooklyn-Battery tunnels are now closed to all in-bound commercial traffic.
GENERAL: 8/11/04 NEWARK, N.J. (AP) — Hospitals have tightened security since recent warnings of potential terror attacks, with one area medical center banning deliveries from outside flower shops.
Boston, Philly, Seattle, LA. Trains and buses searched - Significant development in east coast towns. Some of this is in response to the upcoming republican convention. Other major financial office centers in many cities are taking additional precautions.
Ports are getting a lot more security scrutiny. Diving teams are activity looking for mines, Coast Guard turning away ships as necessary. However, this appears to be in part in line with scheduled increased security posture and not necessarily in response to a specific threat.
6. Military operations.
The fleet is deployed conducting various maneuvers and exercises.
The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
(7/29/04) Elements of the 2nd Infantry division stationed in Korea are deploying to Iraq as scheduled.
7. Dept of Homeland Scty. The following is worth repeating!
8/6/04 This is a joint FBI and DHS Information Bulletin. Below are excerpts of key points
ATTENTION:
State Homeland Security Advisors, Facility Security Managers, Emergency Services Sector, Real Estate ISAC, Highway/Trucking ISAC, and Car, Truck and Limousine Rental Companies
OVERVIEW
As demonstrated by recent attacks in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and elsewhere, terrorist operatives worldwide continue to rely on vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) as a method of attack. This tactic has been used here in the past, notably in the 1993 World Trade Center and 1995 Oklahoma City bombings. The World Trade Center and Oklahoma City attacks were carried out with rented vehicles, highlighting the need for awareness among the car, truck, and limousine rental community of the potential for vehicle-borne attacks in the United States.
DETAILS
There is no standard type of vehicle associated with VBIEDs. Terrorists appear to select vehicles based on an assessment of vehicles common to and available in a region, vehicles possessing routine access to the target area or the security posture of the intended target. Vehicles of any type or size can be utilized in vehicle bombings, although the size of the explosive charge may, to some degree, dictate the size of the vehicle required. In the 1993 World Trade Center attack, approximately 1,200 pounds of improvised explosives were placed in a rental van which had been reported stolen by one of the conspirators. Other large vehicles-such as limousines-should also receive consideration as potential VBIEDs, since limousines have larger storage capacity than regular passenger vehicles. In addition, limousines often convey an impression of authority or prestige, which may facilitate their access to specific locations in a building or facility denied to the general public.
Analysis of terrorist preparations for past attacks overseas and in the United States suggests that preoperational indicators may be present in the days or weeks prior to an attack. The following indicators may point to possible planning to use rental vehicles in a terrorist attack. Alone, each indicator can result from legitimate commercial activity or criminal activity not related to terrorism; however, multiple indicators can suggest a terrorist threat.
* Customers who attempt to give vague or unverifiable references or employment information on rental agreements, who insist on paying in cash and/or who seem overly concerned about privacy.
* Attempts to expedite collection of deposits made on rental vehicles reported as "stolen."
* Suspicious inquiries concerning whether vehicles can be modified to handle heavier loads, create additional storage areas or increase fuel capacity or vehicle speed.
* Suspicious inquiries concerning the use of limousines by private drivers or a limousine's exact length, height or interior volume.
* Reports of rental vehicles parked for prolonged periods of time near sensitive facilities such as government, military, utility or other high profile sites.
* Suspicious attempts to gain employment at vehicle dealerships and/or rental agencies.
* Customers displaying burns or chemical exposure symptoms who provide vague or illogical explanations as to the circumstances surrounding the injuries.
* Returned rental vehicles with altered company logos, Department of Transportation numbers, or structural or appearance modifications.
CONCLUSIONS
The U.S. Government remains concerned that al-Qaida or other terrorist organizations are planning to carry out terrorist attacks in the United States during the summer and fall 2004 time frame. Although the FBI and DHS possess no specific information indicating terrorists plan to use rental vehicles, rental company personnel are encouraged to remain alert for indicators of preoperational activity and immediately report any situation that appears to constitute a terrorist threat to the FBI and DHS offices listed on the first page.
8. Domestic Terror Currently Not Linked to Jihadists
8/10/04 Federal officials are holding a Pakistani citizen who was arrested last month after a police officer spotted him videotaping Bank of America headquarters and another skyscraper in uptown Charlotte.
Charlotte-Mecklenburg police detained Kamran Akhtar (Shaikh), 35, on July 20 when they saw him videotaping the landmarks. They questioned Akhtar and found videotapes of the Bank of America building and the former Wachovia building that now houses Charlotte's FBI offices.
Akhtar also had footage of buildings in Atlanta; Austin, Texas; Dallas; Houston; New Orleans; and several transit systems in those cities.
I'll be on the road for the next ten days or so. Business/pleasure trip. Will try to check in from time to time. Stay vigilant and stay safe.
Laby
