OK, by now you should all know that I am skeptical about the association of the islamic lunar calendar as it relates to AQ actions. A key item just dawned upon me this morning.
1. The threat window to Europe was recently extended to Aug 15th. This was rather unprecidented.
2. It is strongly expected that OBL will be releasing his video confirming the GO to terror ops.
3. August 15th is a new moon.
Could it be that we'll finally have the chance to document this? If OBL releases the video on the 15th or as late as the 16th, I think we will need to revisit this issue.
Summary 8/11/04 thru 8/13/04
Activity levels are increasing, so I am issuing another summary just so everyone can keep abreast.
Current National Homeland Defense threat level is YELLOW
(8/1/04) Local Threat Level ORANGE for NYC, N. New Jersey, D.C
1. Attack threat windows - (8/3/04) An operative, described as "credible" by British intelligence, told his debriefers that the attack would take place "60 days before the presidential election" which is held on Nov. 2 of this year, according to a former senior National Security Council official. On Sept. 2 (about 60 days prior) President George W. Bush is expected to address the Republican National Convention at Madison Square Garden. It appears that this ‘early September’ attack window is getting more credibility from government sources to the media.
Secondary window: (8/10/04) No change. Between now and Nov 2, 2004. This window is based upon AQ threats to disrupt our national elections. This window could potentially be extended to Inauguration Day in January 2005.
Attack Indicators
8/13/04 Multiple sources are expecting an OBL tape (audio or video) to be released very soon. Multiple sources are also reporting that OBL has already given the go-ahead for a new international round of attacks.
8/9/04 Press Trust of India/Agence France Presse High-level al-Qaeda operatives from around the world had been traveling to Afghanistan-Pakistan border apparently to hold summits that had an uncanny resemblance to the Qaeda meeting in Malaysia in January 2000 which firmed up plans for September 11 attacks on New York and Washington, a media report said on Monday.
For several months, it said, the US government had been picking up reports from its spies, electronic intercepts, and "liaison services" (friendly intelligence services) of a Qaeda plot to strike the American homeland before the November elections.
OBL / AQ General
8/12/04 (From Jill's site: ) A source in the Pakistani intelligences revealed that Osama Ben Ladin 's alqaeda organism leader issued orders actually for the launch of attacks on targets in The United States and Britain .
And the source that refused the revelation of its name added that Ben Laden gave the green light for targeting the places and the important personalities in The United States and Britain and Pakistan also.
8/13/04 IMHO, I am looking for a video/tape to be released on or about August 15, 2004. This date is the designated date for when the 2 week extension to Europe and particularly Italy is to end and is also a new moon.
08/12/2004 DUBAI, Aug 12 (AFP) - An Islamic website said Thursday an audio message is due to be released by al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden or his number two to declare the end of a truce offered to Europe if it pulls out troops from Iraq.
Iraq
8/12/04 Shi'ite cleric Moqtada Sadr has reportedly been wounded as a result of fighting in Najab.
Italy
8/11/04 Security in Italy's art cities, including Venice, Florence and Rome, will be tightened over the coming holiday weekend after a stream of threats from militants, officials said on Tuesday.
8/7/04 - Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades said in a statement Saturday its cells in Italy were ready to strike if the country did not withdraw troops from Iraq before a 15-day deadline given by the group expired this month. On August 1st, Al Qaeda’s Abu Hafez Masry Brigades gave Berlusconi 15 days to withdraw 3,000 troops from Iraq or face terror attack on Rome.
This is the 6th threat since July 15, the end of a ‘truce’ issued to Europe by OBL. Other threats issued July 2, 16, 26, 28 , 30 and August 5. Some U.S. officials and some terrorism experts believe Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, lacks credibility and has only tenuous ties to al-Qaida.
England
8/12/04 The Times of London (thanks, MadIvan!): Al-QAEDA hit teams are planning to assassinate British politicians and other international leaders closely linked with President Bush. These targeted killings would be carried out simultaneously in a number of countries.
A Pakistani intelligence source said last night: “Osama has given the go-ahead to target important places and personalities in the US, UK and Pakistan.”
Iran
8/9/04 VIENNA, Austria (AP) - Iran has told Europe's leading powers that it wants them to back its right to nuclear technology that can be used to make weapons. Diplomats said Monday the move has dismayed the Europeans and strengthens Washington's push for U.N. sanctions against Tehran. Diplomats said Iran's conditions effectively stall the European attempt to convince Tehran to give up the technology that would allow them to make nuclear arms and pushes Europe closer to the U.S. view that Iran should be hauled before the U.N. Security Council for violating the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
8/9/04 Iran’s defense minister announces test coming shortly of improved Shehab-3 ballistic missile (capable of reaching all parts of Israel.) He warns Israel against striking Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Israel
8/12/04 Islamic postings threaten that Israel will be soon hit by a nuclear attack. There have been no independent confirmations of the sources authenticity whether this is a valid threat or propaganda. Messages can be read at the following link (Thanks Jill!) :
http://www.homelandsecurityus.net/new_page_1.htm
Turkey
8/10/04 A statement released this morning by the Abu Hafs Masry Brigade claimed credit for this morning's Istanbul bombings.
Greece
8/12/04 Islamic radical organizations are ready to attack Athens during the Olympic Games, according to reports. They wait for activation order of the Al-Qaeda leadership in Iran to conduct the attacks, US newspaper "Defense & Foreign Affairs" said. The paper added that the attacks would be led by a terrorist group is comprised of Albanians, Syrians, including well-trained terrorists from other nationalities.
United States
(8/11/04) Discussions on TM seem to concur that the AQ has entered a pre-attack phase and has even set the date and locations and are only waiting the final word from OBL.
8/11/04 From Bill Gertz (Washington Times) U.S. intelligence officials say a high-profile political assassination, triggered by the public release of a new message from Osama bin Laden, will lead off the next major al Qaeda terrorist attack.
2. Attack method.
8/12/2004, WASHINGTON (AP) — "Cues from chatter" gathered around the world are raising concerns that terrorists might try to attack the domestic food and drug supply, particularly illegally imported prescription drugs, acting Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Lester M. Crawford says. "While we must assume that such a threat exists generally, we have no specific information now about any al-Qaida threats to our food or drug supply," said Brian Roehrkasse, spokesman for the Homeland Security Department.
8/13/04 IMO. Assassinations of key world leaders are leaking out as a significant part of AQ’s attack plans. Targets for assassination are leaders of countries supportive of the US, particularly in the ME and Europe but including US. Multiple other countries could be hit with bombing attacks in a coordinated world wide effort. A more significant threat against the Olympics has now arisen. This could be a wild weekend transitioning into next week.
Personnel
8/12/04 Islamabad - Two top al-Qaeda suspects, a Pakistani identified only as Mohsin linked to attempts on President Pervez Musharraf's life and an Uzbek national known as Mansoor, have been captured in Pakistan, said an intelligence official on Thursday. Both men were close to al-Qaeda's "top leadership".
8/12/04 CROMWELL, Conn. -- Syed R. Maswood, 41, confirmed that he is the unnamed Connecticut resident mentioned last week in a federal affidavit charging a British national with supporting terrorism but denies allegations he offered support to a militant Islamic Web site and said he's being targeted because he is Muslim.
Federal agents last week charged British computer specialist Babar Ahmad with running a fund-raising site for Islamic militants. While dissecting Ahmad's computer files, investigators say they discovered an e-mail seeking help getting money to Islamic rebels in Chechnya and they traced that e-mail to Maswood.
4. Significant meetings canceled:
A. (8/13/04) None I am aware of.
5. Security has been heightened in specific cities
8/12/04 Local hospitals in New Jersey have tightened security after recent warnings of potential terror attacks, including the possible use of ambulances as weapons.
State health officials notified hospitals of new concerns after New Jersey counterterrorism officials issued a series of alerts in the past week and with the Republican National Convention in Manhattan beginning in less than three weeks
The bulletin detailed three suspicious events reported throughout the state in connection with ambulances, including one which involved a Middlesex County rescue squad, which state officials would not identify. The squad members reported being approached by a man claiming to be a doctor from Pakistan who asked questions about the vehicle's operations, including how fast the ambulance could travel.
(8/11/04) NYC, N. NJ and D.C. are still at threat level ORANGE. International Monetary Fund and World Bank in D.C.; Prudential Financial in Northern New Jersey; and Citigroup buildings and the New York Stock Exchange in New York
Additional security has also been implemented the American Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Morgan Stanley, Lehman Bros., Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve Bank, Bear Stearns, the UN, Wachovia, AIG, MetLife and JP Morgan Chase. The TransAmerica building, the well-known pyramid-topped skyscraper and the Bank of America Bldg in San Francisco also were on the computer files captured. However, threat levels were not raised by the DHS for these buildings.
GENERAL: Boston, Philly, Seattle, LA. Trains and buses searched - Significant development in east coast towns. Some of this is in response to the upcoming republican convention. Other major financial office centers in many cities are taking additional precautions.
Ports are getting a lot more security scrutiny. Diving teams are activity looking for mines, Coast Guard turning away ships as necessary. However, this appears to be in part in line with scheduled increased security posture and not necessarily in response to a specific threat.
6. Military operations.
08/12/2004 PETERSON AIR FORCE BASE, Colo., Aug. 12, 2004 -- It was a nightmare worst-case scenario. But that's what U.S. Northern Command officials had intended for "Determined Promise '04." The exercise, which ran from Aug. 5-10, was designed to test NORTHCOM's ability to respond to multiple, simultaneous homeland-defense and federal-relief efforts.
The fleet is deployed conducting various maneuvers and exercises. An additional carrier group is reported to have been positioned in the south China Sea region.
The F-117s are still deployed in S. Korea.
(7/29/04) Elements of the 2nd Infantry division stationed in Korea are deploying to Iraq as scheduled.
7. Dept of Homeland Scty.
The U.S. Government remains concerned that al-Qaida or other terrorist organizations are planning to carry out terrorist attacks in the United States during the summer and fall 2004 time frame. Although the FBI and DHS possess no specific information indicating terrorists plan to use rental vehicles, rental company personnel are encouraged to remain alert for indicators of preoperational activity and immediately report any situation that appears to constitute a terrorist threat to the FBI and DHS offices listed on the first page.
8. Domestic Terror Incidents Currently Not Linked to Jihadists
8/12/04 None specified.
"8/13/04 IMHO, I am looking for a video/tape to be released on or about August 15, 2004. This date is the designated date for when the 2 week extension to Europe and particularly Italy is to end and is also a new moon."
This is the Feast of the Assumption of the BVM on the Roman Catholic calendar.
