What is the likely outcome of the Congressional elections?

[French-American Republican]

Are we expected to gain seats or lose seats, and if we're expected to lose, are we expected to still retain majorities in Congress? Tell me realistically what should happen, not optimistically.

[petercooper]

R's pick up 3-4 Senate seats, 6-8 House seats.

[mwl1]

As of this writing, we gain the Senate seats in FL, GA, SC, SD, NC and LA. We lose the seats in CO and IL. We hold OK. Net = +4 (55-44-1), enough to effect a sea change in judicial confirmations.

House: gain 7-10 seats.

[kylaka]

What about Alaska? That looks like a loss to me.

[xrp]

Beating Daschle depends on what kind of campaign Thune runs. I understand he would have beaten Johnson in '02 if he had been more aggressive.

Thune would have won in 2002 if he'd appealed to more freedom and liberty minded voters. Thune's loss margin was smaller than the total vote for the Libertarian candidate.

Democratic Johnson (incumbent)

167,481 50%

Republican Thune

166,954 49%

Libertarian Evans

3,071 1%

[maryz]

Beating Daschle depends on what kind of campaign Thune runs. I understand he would have beaten Johnson in '02 if he had been more aggressive.

I thought Thune would have beaten Johnson if it hadn't been for those late-reporting precincts on the Indian reservations (populated on election day by more Dem lawyers than voters).

[HitmanLV]

My conservative prediction is:

* GOP +5 gain in House
* GOP + 2 gain in Senate
* Bush wins with 325 Electoral votes or so.

My most optimistic (but still fairly realistic) prediction is:

* GOP House: 235-200
* GOP Senate: 55-44-1
* Bush wins with 350 Electoral Votes or so.

[Dog Gone]

I think even Texas Democrats have conceded the loss of six House seats to the Republicans here.

Nationwide, a GOP net gain of 7-10 isn't an overly optimistic expectation.

In the Senate, the Democrats are defending far more seats than we are, which should equate to a net gain of at least one seat. Although Keyes has little chance of holding Illinois for the GOP, we'll pick up Zell Miller's seat for sure and probably Foghorn Leghorn's seat in South Carolina. Mel Martinez would probably carry Florida if he is the winner of the primary.

[dufekin]

House of Representatives: so intensively gerrymandered that incumbents will win reelection at a rate that would have impressed even the old Soviet Politburo. Only major change is in Texas, where a new gerrymandering scheme has taken hold. By accident or design, there are a very few potentially competitive districts, but I expect the primaries to be more challenging for the incumbents to win. Republicans stand to gain 6 in the House from Texas, South Dakota's at-large seat (ousting that one Democrat), and pick up 2 seats with no incumbent. That's a gain of +10. Add 2 party changes and subtract 2 previous special-election losses and keep it at +10 net. End result: 237-197-1. (Bernie Sanders keeps his seat.)

Senate:

We hold Alaska, regardless of who wins the primary, in a tough battle. The question is: can Bush spare the time to campaign for the Senate nominee in the Last Frontier? Might he attach some Republican campaigning to a Asian-leader summit in the state?

We hold Alabama easily as Bush sweeps the state.

They keep Arkansas, but it might be close...this is the most liberal of Southern states, although even that is relative. I expect this state to begin to go solid Republican very soon, but for now, the Democrats should survive on their "home-state zero" Clinton legacy.

We hold Arizona; no Democrat dare challenge the rhino-in-chief, John McCain! Say what you will, but at least McCain does not flinch from supporting our troops.

They keep California easily...sorry, but this is the land of wacky Hollywood and socialist San Francisco. Schwarzenegger was an aberration and still is far to the left of the Republicans nationally.

Colorado we should keep, but it won't be easy...still pre-primary so I don't know our nominee yet.

They keep Connecticut easily. If I were a Democrat, however, I'd be concerned about Kerry's low numbers here.

Democrats are poisoned in Florida as the race two years ago revealed, therefore REPUBLICANS SNATCH FLORIDA. We also sweep the state's presidential ballot, no matter what the polls say. Remember, they had Jeb Bush losing the gubernatorial race, but he won by 13.

REPUBLICANS SACK GEORGIA, as if in a walk, but I don't know that we'll get more conservative than Zell Miller, a Democrat. With Cynthia McKinney (and her terrorist financiers) so prominent in the state Democratic party, it's dubious that they'll find a real winner here for decades.

They keep Hawaii handily. Governor Lingle is a rarity; these tropical islands are a Democrat or socialist paradise.

We hold Iowa with a weak challenge. Talk about the power of incumbency.

Idaho doesn't have any Democrats--okay, maybe enough to hold "minor-party" status, still largely irrelevant--so the result is obvious: we keep its Senate seat.

DEMOCRATS TAKE ILLINOIS, where their nominee is running unopposed (by anyone on the ballot, at least insofar as I can tell). When Obama wins, he'll be the first black male ever to serve in the Senate. (Republicans, especially blacks and females, are considered subhuman and unworthy of mention, at least in Democrat partisan propaganda.)

They hold Indiana with Evan Bayh, but it might get interesting given the President's vote share here.

We hold Kansas easily. Democrats aren't easy to find here.

We also hold Kentucky almost as easily, especially with President Bush atop the ticket.

Louisiana, ruled by French Catholic Dixiecrats, is classically weird: if we win, we'll probably win in the first round with Bush on the ballot. Right now, we're united behind one candidate, so I'll say PROBABLY WE GAIN LOUISIANA. If it goes to December, it's anyone's game.

They keep Maryland easily. Barbra Mikulski is the most liberal Democrat who actually shows her face in the Senate. She'd be defeated in a normal state, but this is liberal Maryland, where Bush is loathed.

We hold Missouri very narrowly absent a Bush blowout. If, on the other hand, Kerry gets a majority in the Show Me State--it's not gonna happen, so let's not consider it.

North Carolinians may tell pollsters that they'd vote for Erskine Bowels, but I think they've learned their lesson with liberal extremist John Edwards. WE TAKE NORTH CAROLINA--and it won't be all that close. Bush also wins here in a top-of-the-ticket blowout.

They'll keep North Dakota, or so I think, but this one could be won by a dark-horse Republican. Conservative North Dakotans must despise their Congressional representation of a triumvirate of Kerry co-partisans. Dorgan is in a race that may be far closer than he appreciates.

New Hampshire we should win, but it might be closer than we've been led to believe. Kerry, after all, is favored in this typically intensely Republican state. Where's the Free State Project when you need them?

Nevada may well be the complement to New Hampshire. In a Democratic-breaking year, Senator Reid eked out another term by a 0.1% margin. Republicans haven't settled on a hard-hitting nominee, and Bush support has eroded over Yucca Mountain. Right now, it's a wild open race, but I'll have to count Reid ahead until and unless Bush can build a heavy lead here.

There may be Republicans in New York, but true conservatives mostly have relocated to Georgia. Schumer is rather conservative by New York standards, and he's invincible. Kerry also wins here in a blowout. Come January 2007, however, New York might have a real Republican senator. Just you wait!

Ohio we keep, albeit with a possible rhino. Enough said.

We also hold the open seat in Oklahoma. With Kerry atop the ballot and several cultural referenda, Oklahomans won't elect a liberal Democrat for a Senator. It won't even be close. Plus, Tom Coburn knows how to vote "no," and I like that. As if that weren't enough, Bush will take Oklahoma easily, even if Kerry wins a Reagan-style mandate (which isn't going to happen; never fear). Democrats are far too overconfident. Yeah, they are a majority of the electorate, but they still can't do any better than 0-9 at electing a President here.

The Democrats keep Oregon, although any Kerry victory here undoubtedly will be narrow. Oregonians already once opposed socialized medicine overwhelmingly, and I doubt that they'll approve of it Kerry-style.

Pennsylvania is close to call, and Specter's political future very well might depend upon what Bush can do in this liberal northeastern state. A strong Constitutionalist or Libertarian challenge will hurt Specter, but what will the Greens and Commies play? Conservatives almost upset Specter in the primary, and turnout could be poor, especially as they continue to flee this high-tax state with its continuous blizzards. Right now, with Kerry surging in his home region and consolidating his leftist base, I'll put a better than even chance that DEMOCRATS CAPTURE PENNSYLVANIA.

Ignore the Edwards hype. REPUBLICANS TAKE SOUTH CAROLINA and they do it in style. Democrats masquerading as Republicans aren't as good as the real thing. With the huge black vote here still supporting Democrats, however, the margin of victory won't be one of blowout proportions.

As the Daschle dichotomy becomes exposed, REPUBLICANS WILL SACK SOUTH DAKOTA. An enormous victory for President Bush won't help Daschle.

Utah's lonely Democrat is running for Senate, but the Republican might as well be running unopposed. We keep the Mormon state.

Democrats keep Vermont. Bernie Sanders, Howard Dean, Jim Jeffords, Patrick Leahy, John Kerry, and John Edwards are all popular here. All liberal, all the time in the most rural, most heavily Congregationalist state in the Union.

In Washington, Patty Murray wins in a squeaker. She supports dictators, lauds terrorists, endorses socialists, and runs as a co-partisan of a traitor (Kerry). All of these are typical of Seattle and Olympia, which unfortunately have more people than the rest of the state.

Wisconsin should be a Democrat win, but it could be close.

Summary: gain 6 (SD, LA, FL, GA, SC, NC) and lose 2 (IL, PA) for a net of +4.

[Dog Gone]

I'm not sure I'm in full agreement with your predictions, but they certainly are plausible.

The only factual error you made is that when Obama wins, he will be the fourth black male Senator to serve, the most recent being Republican Edward Brooke of Massachussetts.

[HoustonCurmudgeon]

In the Senate, the Democrats are defending far more seats than we are, which should equate to a net gain of at least one seat. Although Keyes has little chance of holding Illinois for the GOP, we'll pick up Zell Miller's seat for sure and probably Foghorn Leghorn's seat in South Carolina. Mel Martinez would probably carry Florida if he is the winner of the primary.

DG, I think we will break even in the Senate, though we are in a better position to gain one or two than they are. I expect to get FL GA and SC but lose CO IL and Alaska. We screwed up IL and Alaska without any help. We MIGHT hold either CO or Alaska, and I think the rest will stay as they are.

[okstate]

"But is that Vitter guy in La not doing well? What is it about that state? Do they only vote statewide for the GOP for President or something?"


Vitter is doing well, but he needs to avoid the runoff (win 51% in November). Right now I've seen him polling around 35-40 percent, which puts him in the lead but which also means he faces Dems John or Kennedy. The Dem Landrieu won a close runoff in the December '02.

If it goes to a runoff, I'm afraid the Dems will win a two-way race. Louisiana hasn't elected a Republican Senator since Reconstruction (or something like that).

We had a chance to take out Landrieu the Lib in '02 but we couldn't do it... so I'll say the Dems hold on because I don't see Vitter escaping a runoff right now.

[dufekin]

The previous three African-American male Senators were all Republicans; hence, it is as if they never existed, at least according to the Democrat propaganda that I used as my source.

[Dog Gone]

I'm a little more confident of Colorado than you are. Colorado has seen a large influx of conservative Californians who are fed up with that state's problems and fiscal policy. It's actually tilted the state to the right in the past few years.

Alaska could be problem, although the state will clearly vote for Bush. A coattail effect might be necessary to hold it.

[Dane]

When Obama wins, he'll be the first black male ever to serve in the Senate.

Actually there was black Republican Senator from Massachusetts in the 60's, IIRC.

[Intolerant in NJ]

Senate - Lose Ill., Gain Fl, Ga, Sc - net gain of 2 for the GOP; House net gain of 1......

[Intolerant in NJ]

Ps - GOP could also pick up SD with defeat of Dascle or however you spell his name.......

[NeoCaveman]

Senate: Net GOP Gain of 0. Losing IL, gaining FL

Senate GOP net +1, loses IL and maybe AK, will pick up SC,GA, and either FL or NC

House: Net GOP Gain of 2.

Net gain 8, 6 from Texas alone.

[mathluv]

Max Sandlin is now my congress critter. I have to laugh at his ads on tv - he does not say he is a dim - implies he is independent, but uses "a strong America" as part of his ad. One thing he says is something about big drug companies stealing from seniors.

[mathluv]

Some of the states having gay marriage-related amendments will help W.

[NeoCaveman]

Wisconsin should be a Democrat win, but it could be close.

It will be close. Feingold could lose, he never wins big.