Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP Poll: Bush 43% Kerry 49%

Polling Report ^ | 8/06/04 | IBD/CSM/TIPP

[Ed_in_LA]

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll conducted by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. Aug. 2-5, 2004. N=841 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
						.
"If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John Kerry or Republican George W. Bush?" Names rotated
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Not Sure		.
		%	%	%
	8/2-5/04	43	49	9
	7/19-24/04	43	46	12
	7/12-17/04	41	44	15
	7/6-10/04	44	49	7
	6/14-19/04	44	44	13
	6/8-13/04	44	43	14
	6/1-6/04	45	44	12
	5/12-18/04	42	43	16
	3/8-11/04	46	43	12
						.
"If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John Kerry, Republican George W. Bush or independent Ralph Nader?" Names rotated
						.
		George W. Bush	John Kerry	Ralph Nader	Not Sure
		%	%	%	%
	8/2-5/04	42	45	5	8
	7/19-24/04	42	44	3	11
	7/12-17/04	40	42	4	15
	7/6-10/04	43	47	4	6
	6/14-19/04	44	41	6	10
	6/8-13/04	43	40	5	12
	6/1-6/04	43	41	7	9
	5/12-18/04	42	41	7	11
	5/2-8/04	46	41	5	7
	4/16-22/04	44	40	3	14
	4/14-19/04	44	40	4	13
	3/29 - 4/3/04	43	45	5	8
	3/8-11/04	45	40	6	8
	3/1-7/04	41	44	6	8

[clintonh8r]

I know the GOP hasn't had its convention, and polls can't be trusted, and the voters haven't started to pay attention, and yadayadayada, but W just doesn't seem to be getting any traction. I fear the constant attacks from the left, aided by the press stooges, have become too much for anyone to overcome. Soon it will be time to hide income and assets and stock up on ammo.

[Hildy]

We haven't had our convention yet.

[jwalsh07]

Your opinion, I think its all noise. Its been 45-45 since 2000. A couple of the ten will go to the fringes and the other 8 percent who are starved for attention will hold out as long as possible.

The event that will decide this election hasn't happened yet. I'll ping you when it does.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

I've seen the commericals -- Rove has gone very fluffy Reagan-like "it's morning in America" with most of the campaign thus far. I can't quiver with it. It worked for Reagan in 1984 and he won in a landslide over Mondale.

Mondale also was running close after his convention.

It's not time to panic. The Dems had their convention and the map pretty much is status quo from 2000 (with the exceptions of NH and WV). That's a good thing. Kerry should be far ahead, but he's not.

We need to stop dwelling on the negative and getting the positive out -- that the economy is good, that Bush has kept us safe, that Bush has liberated the Iraqi and Afghani people, that he is taking it to the war on terror, etc.

I am tired of the doom and gloom politics that the Kerry folks are running on and can't believe that you are buying into it.

[Flightdeck]

I think churchhillbuff is really John Galt's other username from his other computer.

[zarf]

The event that will decide this election hasn't happened yet.

It already has. Rick James died today.

[jwalsh07]

Thats why I take your political prognostication with a mountain of salt. :-}

[tobyhill]

Dukakis was ahead by 17 points over Bush senior at the same time in 1988. Kerry is trying the same game, run all over the field with every issue that one can come up with. It's a technique doomed for failure when he runs out of issues to flip flop on. He's on the Energy Plan now, not much left especially when gas prices go down during the off peak season. As for employment, more companies will hire when they see not doing so effects their investors. As for the war in Iraq and Terror it already seems to be sorting it's self out. Bin Laden, WMD and Iraq/Al Qaeda links next.

[stockpirate]

What I need to see is the percent of Republicans polled and the percent of Taxocrats polled. Because alot of times what a poll will do is to poll lets say 60 percent Taxocrats and 34 percent Republicans and 6 percent unwashed.

Then you get high numbers for Taxocrats.

Theme for Kerry, "Kerry and the Taxocrats will let you keep your change Tour"

[DrDeb]

. . . statistical tie (3-way race unchanged from 7/19-24/04)!

Comparative Benchmark: The new AP/Ipsos-Reid poll (taken during the same time frame) finds a statistical tie. Additionally, it puts the President's job approval at 50/50 -- statistically unchanged for the last SEVERAL months!

Bottomline: Kerry received the LOWEST post-convention bounce in recent history!

That said, I do believe the spinning of today's jobs report will negatively impact all of the President's polling data from now until the Republican Convention -- I anticipate a 3-5 point drop in the President's average job approval ratings and a similar increase in Kerry's match-up advantage. IRRELEVANT!

What will matter, however, is the GOP's ability to 'turn out' our voters. [As Dr Ralph Reed indicated at a recent meeting, had he and his activists listened to the pollsters during the 2002 elections in GA, they would have quit a day before the election when the polls had most of their candidates DOWN by double digits -- I think we all know how the 2002 Georgia election 'turned out'!!!!]

The (silent) Christian Majority
http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/445jeipn.asp

[Betaille]

"I am tired of the doom and gloom politics that the Kerry folks are running on and can't believe that you are buying into it."
How am i buying into "gloom and doom" politics? I think the economy is very strong and Bush has been great on the war on terror. My whole point is that Bush's campaign is not doing a good job of getting that message out.

[Betaille]

"Rove has gone very fluffy Reagan-like "it's morning in America" with most of the campaign thus far. I can't quiver with it. It worked for Reagan in 1984 and he won in a landslide over Mondale."
This election is not comparable to that. Reagan had much higher approval ratings than Bush at this point, and the "morning in america" ads were meant to advertise peace and prosperity. View's of todays economy are alot more mixed, and we are not at peace. Bush needs to make the case for his war-time leadership and convince americans that the economy is doing well(which it is). He has done neither in his ads so far.

[VRWC_minion]

Sickening. America was a great country.

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Have you seen any of the ads? They seem positive to me and get the word out. I thought the one I saw last night on Fox News was positive and made the case nicely.

If you are dissatisfied.. help get the word out yourself, my FRiend. Tell that liberal co-worker that the economy is good. Tell a neighbor about how safe you feel that Bush is in charge. It can start at home as much as it can start on the campaign level.

[The Duke]

I don't believe Kerry can win. He's like Bill Clinton with the single very important distinction that he's not from an unprivileged background. Wealthy elite liberals - I personally - cannot with the White House in the US.

[Betaille]

"They seem positive to me and get the word out."
Sure they are positive... but htey dont make a point. Show me one Bush ad that tells people about boom-level economic growth... or shows him as a war-time leader... or explains what Bush intends to do in his second term. The new Bush campaign ad doesnt even SHOW PRESIDENT BUSH in it. How can you defend that?

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

Sure they are positive... but htey dont make a point. Show me one Bush ad that tells people about boom-level economic growth... or shows him as a war-time leader... or explains what Bush intends to do in his second term. The new Bush campaign ad doesnt even SHOW PRESIDENT BUSH in it. How can you defend that?

I thought they all did that.. told people about the good economic times, lauded Bush for getting us through 9/11. All I can say is patience. The word will get out.

[Betaille]

told people about the good economic times, lauded Bush for getting us through 9/11.

I just watched the ads again... they say nothing of the sort. The most recent ad says "we're working to grow our economy". Why doesnt he just say flat out "Our economy is growing at the fastest pace in 20 years!". Then they say "we're fighting terror"... with NO MENTION OF PRESIDENT BUSH!
Please watch the most recent ad again and you'll see what I mean. Why are they so afraid to advertise President Bush in an advertisement meant to sell President Bush?

[GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY]

I have a feeling they will. Didn't they say, "I'm President Bush and I approved this messgage," which implied that his administration is the one that will take care of terror.

It's all about the expectation games. Maybe Rove knows that the July numbers would be suppressed because of the seasonal corrections that the Labor Department makes in July, so he lowered July expectations to increase expectations in August after the convention. This does come from the man who put out the letter claiming that Kerry was going to get a 15-point bounce, which the Dims bought into hook, line, and sinker.

Don't give up hope yet. We have a convention and three months to go to get the true message out.

[jveritas]

DrDeb

Thank you for this great post.