. . . statistical tie (3-way race unchanged from 7/19-24/04)!
Comparative Benchmark: The new AP/Ipsos-Reid poll (taken during the same time frame) finds a statistical tie. Additionally, it puts the President's job approval at 50/50 -- statistically unchanged for the last SEVERAL months!
Bottomline: Kerry received the LOWEST post-convention bounce in recent history!
That said, I do believe the spinning of today's jobs report will negatively impact all of the President's polling data from now until the Republican Convention -- I anticipate a 3-5 point drop in the President's average job approval ratings and a similar increase in Kerry's match-up advantage. IRRELEVANT!
What will matter, however, is the GOP's ability to 'turn out' our voters. [As Dr Ralph Reed indicated at a recent meeting, had he and his activists listened to the pollsters during the 2002 elections in GA, they would have quit a day before the election when the polls had most of their candidates DOWN by double digits -- I think we all know how the 2002 Georgia election 'turned out'!!!!]
The (silent) Christian Majority
http://weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/004/445jeipn.asp
Thank you for this great post.
Very good point. But if this is the case... shouldn't Bush be citing social issues in his ads?