Posted on 08/06/2004 2:15:10 PM PDT by Nascardude
WASHINGTON -- Democrat John Kerry, whose nominating convention highlighted his war service and focused on national security, has narrowed the gap on President Bush's strong suit of protecting the country, according to an Associated Press poll that shows the race remains tight.
Flanked by his Vietnam crewmates, Kerry delivered an acceptance speech last week laden with references to patriotism, his decorated military record and his qualifications for commander in chief -- a theme underscored by speaker after speaker over the four-day gathering.
The images and rhetoric registered with a number of voters.
In the AP survey conducted Tuesday through Thursday, 43 percent said Kerry would do a better job of protecting the country -- a gain of 8 percentage points for the Democratic presidential nominee from a similar survey in March.
Kerry improved his standing on the issue with a demographic group that tends to lean Republican: men under age 45.
Bush still has the advantage on the issue, with 52 percent saying the Republican incumbent would do better in protecting the nation. But Bush's percentage on the issue has dropped 6 percentage points since March, according to the poll conducted for the AP by Ipsos-Public Affairs, and the latest survey was taken as he faced questions about dated intelligence for increased terror alerts.
Edison Montgomery, a 59-year-old Democrat from Lancaster, Ohio, said that after watching the convention he has grown more comfortable with Kerry -- especially on whether he is capable of protecting the nation.
"He seems like he's got a good head on his shoulders," Montgomery said.
Despite the gains for the Democratic challenger, Bush and Kerry remained essentially tied in the presidential race -- an outcome similar to where they've been for months.
In a three-way matchup, Kerry and running mate John Edwards have the backing of 48 percent, Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney 45 percent and independent Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo 3 percent.
The poll had a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
In July, Bush had a slight lead over Kerry -- 49 percent to 45 percent -- with 3 percent backing Nader.
Kerry also improved his standing in state polls in two swing states -- Florida and New Hampshire -- pulling slightly ahead of Bush since the convention, according to the American Research Group.
Although Bush's ratings have dipped in other areas, including his stewardship of the war in Iraq and his handling of the economy, 51 percent still approve of the president's handling of the war on terrorism to 48 percent who disapprove in the AP poll.
"I don't think Kerry's ready to be president," said Laura Weber, a 37-year-old Republican from Pierre, S.D. "Bush would be more decisive."
The economy has been improving in fits and starts but continues to be a troublesome issue for Bush. Fewer than half -- 46 percent -- said they approve of the Republican's handling of the economy, about the same percentage as July.
Kerry held a clear advantage over Bush on the question of who would do better at creating jobs, with 55 percent naming Kerry and 39 percent saying Bush -- a number essentially unchanged from March.
The job numbers released Friday are likely to reinforce that perception.
New figures on job growth in July were far below analysts' predictions, with only 32,000 jobs being added -- a potentially troubling sign that the rough patch the economy hit in June was not an isolated problem despite 11 consecutive months of jobs growth. Analysts were expecting the economy to add anywhere from 215,000 to 247,000 jobs in July.
All total, 1.1 million jobs have been lost since Bush took office in January 2001.
"We have a long way to go on jobs," said Cara Easterly, a 37-year-old Democrat from the Seattle area. "I don't think Bush is focused on the problem. He's more focused on what's going on outside the country."
Strong support for Bush and Kerry now is about even, with 32 percent saying they are backers of the Republican and 31 percent saying their candidate is Kerry. In July, Bush was slightly ahead of Kerry in intensity of support.
"I think President Bush has done an excellent job," said Linda Roberts, a conservative Republican from Liberal, Kan. "He's a Christian. I don't believe there's any reason to kill babies by abortion. I don't believe in gay marriage. I believe he is for equal rights, but also for God's rights."
The AP-Ipsos poll surveyed 1,001 adults, including 798 registered voters.
Naw, it just started us looking at it. This week we are highlighting his war service :)
So, 20% of this sample was from people who aren't even REGISTERED to vote??? Gee, I wonder who they support.
Remember the "bounce"
"He seems like he's got a good head on his shoulders," Montgomery said.
It has to be something in the water. LOL
Flanked by his Vietnam crewmates
-----
Man, AP, I already know that he served. Placing that phrase in every article is ridiculous.
It is hard to keep track of all the zillions of polls that are released every day. Realclearpolitics does a good job summarizing them. Seems some polls showed a negative bounce, others showed a modest positive bounce, and still others showed no bounce. Not much consensus.
After what happened in Missouri, I'm not sure it even matter what these polls say.
Also what happened in MO, is Holden lost. Two days before the primary, SUSA had him edging out a 1% lead, and he lost by 6%. Goes to show that these polls can still be technically correct within their own MOE but still be way off the mark. If these state polls are accurate in Nov, that will be a first.
It is strange that it seems that state polling in presidential elections is typically more off the mark than the national popular vote polls. It would seem like polls would get more accurate as the size of the population being polled decreases.
But then, I never was good at statistics.
That was the ARG poll from Flordia that had Democrats severly overpolled. I don't know what the internals from this poll are.
If the election was held today, which would be unconstitutional, Kerry 296EV, Bush 236EV. We have to take Florida.
Odd how all the polls are just sandbagging the day after the swiftvet story breaks.
Seems these polls are there to be neutralizing fodder for the swift vet story. The talking heads need their DNC talking points.
I don't even bother with sunday mornings because they have inside the beltway disease.
Just a foot note on the history of polls. We've probably heard all the mumbo jumbo about how undecideds always break for the challenger, and No incumbent has ever won with a below 50 percent approval rating. Well here is a trend for the Kerry folks to choke on. Since Gallup began polling during the FDR era, no challanger has ever won without opening up a significantly big lead after their convention. Here are the gallup polls after the challangers convention in past president elections where there was an incumbent:
1996: Challenger Dole trails Pres. Clinton by 7 points
1992: Challenger Clinton leads Pres. Bush by 22 points
1984: Challenger Mondale trails Pres. Reagan by 12 points.
1980: CHallenger Reagan leads Pres. Carter by 16 points.
1976: Challenger Carter leads Pres. Ford by 31 points.
1972: Challenger McGovern trails Pres. Nixon by 19 points.
1964: Challenger Goldwater trails LBJ by 27 points.
Kerry has failed to open up any kind of significant lead over Bush. His biggest lead is 5 in the Fox Poll and in most it averages about 1-3, and in the gallup even shows him behind.
Poll Troll Ping
Excellent points.
Campaign School 101 says find a trend and claim it as your own. The DNC has been following this propaganda technique to a tee.
The problem is that all the reporters seem too stupid to pick up on this. Exposing BS propaganda would be a fertile stomping ground for reporters but they just don't want to do their jobs.
Geez - how many polling companies are out there? There seems like a new one everyday. I don't take a lot of stock in any of them, whether they are plus or minus Bush.
Did they give a number for GWB approval ratings?
Not bad for a ratpoll company. Remember when you see IPSOS read greenberg. When you read greenberg read ratpollster.
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