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Friday, August 06, 2004 Current developments Fierce clashes and air strikes continue in Najaf for the second day in a row while fighting spreads to several southern Iraqi cities reminding Iraqis of the events of last April. The worst situation appears to be that of Najaf and Sadr city in Baghdad, while the situation in Nasiriya, Ammara, and Basrah seems to be less serious but still threatening to explode. The news from Ammara indicate that armed Sadr supporters are controlling the streets under the eyes and noses of Iraqi police and National Guards. The limited British force in town has not yet interfered. Yesterday, Sadr's main office here in Basrah was surrounded briefly by British forces but no fighting took place. Today, people are saying that Mahdi militiamen are preparing themselves to take to the streets. Several aides and spokesmen of Muqtada Al-Sadr appeared today on Al-Jazeera and Al-Arabia blaming US forces and the 'so-called governor of Najaf' for the violence starting with the arrests of some Sadr supporters and the attack against Sadr's residence. When asked about the recent kidnapping of Iraqi policemen in Najaf last week by Mahdi militiamen, they hesitated then they dismissed the whole incident as a rumour. They all expressed the desire of the Sadr movement for negotiations and a truce which obviously reflects the hopeless position of Sadr. Muqtada conveyed two contradicitng messages, as usual, in his proxy friday speech delivered by one of his aides at the Kufa mosque; "the Iraqi prime minister says that America is a friend, and I say that America is our enemy", he also reiterated his call for negotiations and cease-fire. The US move looks as if it was a planned one. The latest news from Najaf is that American tanks are closing in on the old city centre where the shrine of Imam Ali, Sadr's office and residence are located, as well as those of several senior Hawza clerics. Clashes are also reported from the Wadi Al-Salam graveyard in the north where Mahdi militiamen have taken refuge in the many basements there. Over 300 militiamen are reported dead and a 1000 have been arrested according to the governor of Najaf. Overall, the situation looks bleak for Sadr, and one has to surmise if this would end in either his arrest or his death. I doubt that the Sadrist movement would be over with Muqtada's death, they would just have a third martyr from the Sadr family to add to their list. One also can't help but wonder about the timing of Sistani's departure from Najaf to London for treatment. The man is known for his subtle messages, could this be a sign for his tacit approval to finish Sadr and his militia once and for all? The remaining Hawza clerics are highly unlikely to issue a collective statement in the absense of Sistani, even more so when they have been threatened and attacked by Sadr's supporters on many occasions. An aide of Sadr mentioned today on Al-Jazeera that Sistani was forced to leave Najaf and that the medical report of his ischemic heart condition was forged. # posted by zeyad : 8/6/2004 07:16:31 PM

Can I buy a paragraph Alex? LOL!

One also can't help but wonder about the timing of Sistani's departure from Najaf to London for treatment. The man is known for his subtle messages, could this be a sign for his tacit approval to finish Sadr and his militia once and for all?

I read a few months ago that the clerics in Iraq have virtual immunity from arrest and are not eager for Sadr to be arrested. They don't really care if we KILL him, they just don't want him arrested. I say we keep with the tradition and kill him.

Makes me wonder why American troops are still there if so much fighting is still going on. How much worse could it be if America pulled our troops out and let the Iraqis have at it. I really don't buy the idea that we need Iraq as a base of operations in the ME, nor do I buy the notion that Iraq will ever be a civilized country as the West defines civilized.

IRAQ THE MODEL
http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/

Saturday, August 07, 2004

The situation is still tense in Baghdad today and you can still hear sounds of explosions coming from Sadr city’s direction every now and then. People reacted differently to the recent clashes with Sadr’s militia. Some were mainly concerned about the large causality and they fear that there maybe many innocents among them despite that they don’t support Sadr. Others thought that the government should show more determination in dealing with the thugs and were unhappy with the performance of the IP and ING because they still see Sadr’s militia on many parts of Sadr city.
The roads to Sadr city are almost blocked by the American army and the ING and many people said that they couldn’t go there and others who lived there had extreme difficulty in getting to their works.

A cap driver who was there today told me that he was stopped inside Sadr city by men dressing in black and covering their faces and carrying RPGs. Sadr followers force the driver to go back from where he came and the guy was very upset to see those criminals still controls the main roads inside the city. This driver was a She’at and one of those who thought that the government should take more serious actions including declaring martial laws. I didn’t agree with him on martial laws as I think that law enforcement alone is enough if carried effectively and I was happy to hear Allawi dismissing this possibility in his last press confrence.

There are many rumors about Sistani’s trip to London. Some people believe it’s part of a conspiracy aimed at isolating Sadr from Sistani and depriving him of any possible support although it’s a well known fact that Sistani doesn’t support Sadr at all and that Sadr had surrounded Sistani’s house soon after the war and asked him to leave Iraq. Other people say that Sadr deputies had visited Sistani lately and had asked him to declare Jihad but Sistani, as expected refuse strongly which lead to those men threatining to kill him! So they think that the government arranged for his departure for a while to protect him until dealing with Sadr permanently.

To sum things up most people think that Sadr militia will soon be history and most of them think this is a good thing since they know that a large number of people who joint Sadr militia were originally thieves and looters who want chaos to spread so that they can repeat what they did after the war. This was confirmed today by Ayad Allawi in the press conference I mentione above when he said that out of the 1200 Sadr’s militia members who where arrested or surrendered there were 400 convicts who were released by Saddam just prior to the war and we all know that Saddam let no political prisoner out, just ordinary criminals.

Allawi seemed so determined in this conference and when one reporter asked him, “Why do you maintain the pressure and continue to push things to the extreme against Iraqi citizens?” He answered the reporter with a harsh tone, “What citizens?? These are outlaws and no one is allowed to break the law here no matter who he was” and he added, “We will continue to push harder and we will keep the course against these criminals” Then the reporter tried to interrupt him but Allawi said, “Enough. We are not having a conversation here. You asked a very unacceptable question and I answered you”

I don’t like a very tough leader as this reminds me of Saddam but there are times when the leader should be tough and frankly I like Allawi’s responce to that reporter and I like his determination but I don’t like what he said about Muqtada when he said that these criminals don’t represent him and I believe he should have been stronger and clearer, saying that Muqtada is wanted for Iraqi justice and he had caused enormous troubles and led criminals to commit many crimes which he should pay for.

We are all waiting for what the coming days will bring but I personally hope that this militia will be destroyed and that Sadr get arrested and I’m sure this will bring considerable stability to many parts of Iraq, first because anyone with similar ambitions when he sees what happened to Sadr will have to think twice before doing the same, and second because there’s no other man inside Sadr militia that has any legitimacy to attract many followers since all of them are young clerics with no degree or popularity while Sadr at least have his father’s name, reputation and some of his old followers. I’m optimistic but I’m also worried that the government may show some weakness or make some exceptions at the last minute.

- posted by Omar @ 16:46