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Kerry Takes Lead Over Bush Among Likely Voters in Florida (Kerry 50% W 43% Nader 2%)
americanresearchgroup ^ | 08/06/04 | americanresearchgroup

Posted on 08/06/2004 11:08:58 AM PDT by KQQL

John Kerry has taken the lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in Florida according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 50% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 43% say they would vote for Bush. A total of 2% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 5% of likely voters are undecided.

In a ballot question without Nader, 52% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry and 44% say they would vote for Bush, with 4% of likely voters undecided.

These results are based on 600 completed telephone interviews among a statewide random sample of likely voters in Florida.

Of the 600 likely voters, 39% are Republicans, 45% are Democrats, and 16% are not affiliated with any party or affiliated with a minor party.

The interviews were conducted August 3 through 5, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample of 600 is plus or minus 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.


(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Florida
KEYWORDS: 2004; arg; kerrybounce; polls
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To: RightthinkinAmerican

Do you believe that Democrats and Republicans are at registration parity in all 50 states in the union, or what? I don't understand that thinking. States are not evenly divided by party.


61 posted on 08/06/2004 12:03:54 PM PDT by HostileTerritory
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To: RightthinkinAmerican

Do you believe that Democrats and Republicans are at registration parity in all 50 states in the union, or what? I don't understand that thinking. States are not evenly divided by party.


62 posted on 08/06/2004 12:05:04 PM PDT by HostileTerritory
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To: KQQL

The democrat party claims to have registered 30,000 more new voters than the republicans new voters.

This is the Kweezee Enfume voter registration effort in FL.

Black churches in FL are also blatantly political. They do not even PRETEND to be nonpartisan or in any fear of having their tax status threatened because "no white politician is going to touch a black church"


63 posted on 08/06/2004 12:05:34 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE!)
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To: KQQL
fact: GWB will take Florida big for three resons:

1. The Jewish vote will go GWB

2. GWB will get a much larger share of the Black vote than anyone democrat can even imagine....

The marriage/Judges vote will be crawling over glass to vote

Bonus: many dems don't vote except on the phone.

64 posted on 08/06/2004 12:06:04 PM PDT by The Wizard (DemonRATS: enemies of America)
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My 2 cents: Don't get mad @ me, get Glade.
------
Right now W's average approval ratings is 47.1% from last 7 polls (Dem/GOP don't count). The max W will get over his average approval rating is 0.5%.

So: If the election were held today, the approx election results would be.

W/O Nader
Bush 47.6%
Kerry 51.4%
Others 1.0%


Bush 47.6%%
Kerry 50.4%
Nader 1.3%
Others 0.7%



MOE+/-1%


65 posted on 08/06/2004 12:06:25 PM PDT by KQQL
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To: tobyhill

The poll was taken at Ted Jabba Kennedy's house.


66 posted on 08/06/2004 12:08:25 PM PDT by No Surrender No Retreat (These Colors Never Run( 7.62))
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To: KQQL
Republicans haven't had their convention yet.

-PJ

67 posted on 08/06/2004 12:09:24 PM PDT by Political Junkie Too (It's still not safe to vote Democrat.)
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To: William Creel

ARG with a RAT bias? Say it isn't so! This poll, like many paid for by the LA Times or USA Today or the NYTimes, is skewed so far to the left it's a pretzel. The point of the exercise is to put out good numbers for Kerry on the theory that it will snowball and people will actually think he's a viable candidate despite his ineptness. (If you tell a big lie often and loud enough, people will think it's true.)


68 posted on 08/06/2004 12:10:04 PM PDT by hershey
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To: KQQL
I have a theory about polls that was proved once and for all with the democrat primary.

Dean had the whole thing locked up until it came time to vote.

I don't believe polls.
69 posted on 08/06/2004 12:14:21 PM PDT by BurtS188 (Isn't the Discovery Channel going to be stoked when Lance wins seven???)
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To: KQQL

Hannity just announced they only polled 39% Republicans and 49% Democrats. This is why the poll is not viable...means absolutely NOTHING.


70 posted on 08/06/2004 12:15:15 PM PDT by cousair (k)
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To: The Wizard

Don't be so sure.

There are many jewish democrats that would rather die than not vote democrat.


There is also the miami homosexual votes. They are terrified of bush and are pumping money into the democrat parties.

I hope I am wrong, but FL is going to be messy. (lawyers in place, vote fraud via provisional ballots in place, felon voting in place)


71 posted on 08/06/2004 12:15:37 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE!)
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To: CyberCowboy777

This poll doesn't seem accurate considering how close most Florida polls have been. However, it isn't oversampling democrats that much if this website http://usembassy.state.gov/islamabad/wwwh00110701.html and Richard Scher is to be trusted:

"It should be no surprise that this is a close election in Florida, according to Richard Scher, an expert on elections at the University of Florida. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans statewide 43 to 39 percent, he says, while 17 percent of voters choose no party affiliation at all. President Bill Clinton lost the state to President George H.W. Bush in 1992, but won it in 1996, an election in which young Cubans voted Democratic for the first time, according to Scher." (Dated Nov. 6, 2000)


72 posted on 08/06/2004 12:17:00 PM PDT by neutrality
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To: KQQL
A puny 600 vote sample from a pollster nobody ever heard of.

Bilge.
73 posted on 08/06/2004 12:17:14 PM PDT by George W. Bush
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To: KQQL

Must be all the psuedo Jews [liberal Jews] living in Florida who still think appeasement should have been used to defeat Hitler.

One would think these so-called Jews [they are a discrace] would be the last ones towing the nazi leftist demoncratic line.


74 posted on 08/06/2004 12:20:52 PM PDT by Indie (Ignorance of the truth is no excuse for stupidity.)
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To: KQQL

You cannot go by the two senators being rats. Graham has always acted conservative but voted liberal. He has been well liked even by conservative republicans until he showed his butt,and voters looked at his real positions. Bill Nelson also hid his voting record,and was well liked as the congressman astronaut. He won statewide as insurance commissioner,but did a crummy job. My prediction is he will lose against a pubbie in 2006. The state is not 45% democrat,39% Pubbie and 16% indie. Flush this poll with the two Johns.


75 posted on 08/06/2004 12:22:21 PM PDT by samantha (Don't panic, the adults are in charge)
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To: samantha

The latest official numbers from Florida (6/2004), show a partisan breakdown of 42% Dem, 38% Rep., 20% Other.


76 posted on 08/06/2004 12:40:00 PM PDT by Ed_in_LA
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To: ubaldus
If Kerry still leads in FL (or OH, or MO) one month from now, then W is on his way out.

Ye have too much faith in polls, the only poll that counts in the one on November 2. Polls are interesting in forming strategy, but you can take their margin of error and triple it. Besides public opinion changes with the wind. The debates will be the biggest key to this election.

77 posted on 08/06/2004 12:40:04 PM PDT by Always Right
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To: Ed_in_LA
The latest official numbers from Florida (6/2004), show a partisan breakdown of 42% Dem, 38% Rep., 20% Other.

But that probably reflects ALL registered voters. Republicans tend to be slightly more likely to vote, so a good sample of likely voters should be a more even number of GOPers to Dems.

78 posted on 08/06/2004 12:43:01 PM PDT by Always Right
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To: Always Right

Kerry will not make an algore mistake.

Kamp Kerry will try and get the debate manuals.


79 posted on 08/06/2004 1:00:33 PM PDT by longtermmemmory (VOTE!)
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To: KQQL

KQQL the poster of the "Bush Gloom and Doom Polls".


80 posted on 08/06/2004 1:00:42 PM PDT by jveritas
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